$2/5 should we slowdown on the turn? Bet bigger/smaller? What are you doing on river?

1st hand of a new game

No reads other than a sigh and an eye roll from button caller (villain) as he makes the call preflop

Effective Stacks $500

H utg

K♣️K♦️
25

4callers

Pot $100

FLOP: J♦️5♥️5 ♦️

H $65

Button call
Everyone else folds
HU

Pot $230
Turn Q♦️

H $150
V call

Pot $530

River J♣️

H...

I really don't know what we can get value from. I feel like a c/f is best and that seems super gross.

Of the callers preflop were either the blinds? Or did it go h $65, fold fold, call. On the flop? If he was closing the action then his range can be a little wider, but I still don't know what that would be that we beat here. Maybe TTd or 99d? And those two hands I see checking back the river more often than not here.

I think bigger on turn is better. Trying not to be results oriented because it looks like V hit his Jack on river. But you have top two and good flush redraw. I’d try to take it down on turn. If he raises, you can evaluate.

AP: you’re still uncapped so jamming might work if you think you can rep QQ. But against unknown V it’s a high variance play.

Oop, I'd check turn with the Kd. Betting commits ~50% of stack, so if your plan was to call it off, ok.

As played, river is a check/evaluate, likely calling given price and unknown opponent. Flush likely raising turn, rivered by a couple of AdJx combos.

On the river I’m not putting another chip in the pot. I can’t think of any hands that call the flop that aren’t beating us now (maybe TT or 99). I hate this spot on the turn, we really can’t check becuase it caps our range and V will be able to steal too many pots. Betting also feels weird becuase V can call all their flushes and put us in a weird river spot. I personally x/c this turn as we were multi way on the flop so it’s more likely there was a FD out there.

I might check/evaluate turn, but I don't mind the bet vs. one player.

River is a check/evaluate. Vs. an unknown who rolled his eyes pre-flop, it's probably a check/fold.

C/C turn.

As played, c/f river.

thanks for the input everybody

we bet $100 on the river, trying to represent a. thin value (5 or small flush) and or maybe a block bet that was intending to call off.

pretty bad line, but it was a last ditch attempt at the pot.

v shipped we folded

yep, I'm in the check turn camp too (check/call)

as played, I'm check/folding river

Bluff shove the rest.

+1. You’re not beating much that you get value from on the turn.

Can you tell us what Villain looks like? Young, old, what clothes he was wearing etc?

For arguments sake, I've assumed that he will call with this range on the flop. Its pretty wide, but that's what makes fish fish.

JJ-99, 55, AJs, A5s, AdQd, AdTd-Ad6d, Ad4d-Ad2d, KJs, K5s, QJs, QdTd-Qd9d, J7s+, Td6d+, 9d6d+, 85s, 8d6d+, 75s, 7d6d, 7d4d, 65s, 6d4d-6d3d, 53s+, 4d3d, 3d2d, AJo, A5o, KJo, QJo, J9o+, 85o, 75o, 65o

On the flop your hand is 62% to win against this range. So maybe you want to bet more, to get value from a Jack, and to force draws into making a mistake.

The turn Q is a bad card for you, but you do have the K blocking a lot of flush draw hands, plus you have a redraw yourself.

Your equity against the above range is now 58%

Assume that he called with a tighter range pre-flop

JJ, 55, AJs, A5s, AdQd, AdTd-Ad6d, Ad4d-Ad2d, KJs, QJs, QdTd-Qd9d, J9s+, Td8d+, 9d7d+, 8d6d+, 7d6d, 65s, 54s, AJo, JTo

Then you have 67% equity on the flop, and 58% on the turn.

A very tight range would be
JJ, 55, AJs, A5s, AdQd, AdTd-Ad6d, Ad4d-Ad2d, KJs, QJs, QdTd, J9s+, Td9d, 9d8d, 8d7d, 7d6d, 65s

You're 60% on the flop, and 46% versus this on the turn.

So the right move depends on how loose you think this player is. Its a hard one, if this is the first hand of the table. The sigh and the eye-roll could mean anything. Its probably a hand that is ok, but that he lost a lot of money with at some point in the past.

If anything, that tell would indicate that villain is a recreational player. Why emote in such an obvious way, when you are just calling on the button in a multiway pot? I don't think he is being deceptive/acting here, its an honest reaction to a memory he has of playing the same hand in the past.

This would lean me towards thinking that this guy has a looser range of hands than is appropriate.

Go for the check raise, AI on the turn. Allow hands with a jack in them to think they are ahead, and bet. Protect your equity. Its not a super awesome spot, though, and you will get called by better a lot of the time.

AP the J on the river is a terrible card for you, whatever his range.
Against the tightest range your equity is exactly 0%
Against the moderately tight range.... your equity is 0%
Against the loosest range we assumed, your equity is still a piddling 10%

Its a clear check fold here

I agree with this and don't understand the "check/evaluate" replies at all.

Amanaplan, why would a bluffshove on the river not be suicidal? Half the time we're repping what he has (a J) and if he has a flush or a 5, he still has to believe we would barrel a J on this turn. Or is he meant to put us on QQ and just fold everything?

I agree, I like check calling more than bluffshoving, optimal check fold vs standard villain.

It might be wild but I don’t think either player has much Jx left after the turn goes 150/call. Perhaps QJ (or JJ for either of us) for V, but even then it’s not like that hand always calls this turn facing hero’s line. We have the Kd and so he has a lot of smaller flushes too. Just a function of ranges and depth. Shove.