Both hands took place about 10 minutes apart at same table.

Hand 1 -
UTG ($500) is tilty bad lag, opens a huge range, spews postflop, makes it $30

Hero UTG+1 ($1.5k) has 55, calls

Folds to BTN (covers me) mid-aged asian reg who can be somewhat loose pf but clearly on the nitty side postflop.... plays solid overall; rarely bluffs, has the goods in big pots - he calls, rest fold

Flop KJ5

UTG bets $100
I call
BTN raises to $300 - when he does this I put him squarely on 2p+, with JJ obv being highly probable, but he is also capable of flatting KK preflop
UTG calls
I reluctantly call, admittedly unsure what I will do if BTN bombs the turn

Turn 5

UTG checks
Hero? Do I lead, or check with intention to c/c or c/r? Obv I want to play in a way that is most likely to get KJ to put the money in as well as KK, JJ....

Hand 2 -

UTG ($500) is 30's black that is just here to gamble, has reloaded, raises any 2 pretty cards from any position, occasionally bluffs post - opens $30

Folds to Hero OTB (covers UTG and BB) w/A10, I call.

BB ($600) is mid aged white guy that hasn't played long - vibe I got was that he was more of a passive rec player that won't stack off w/o a big hand - calls

Flop AAA

Checks to hero who bets _____?

Thanks....

edit - btw my table image is definitely TAG

Nothing to do in hand 1 besides x/r turn to try to keep both villains in. There is merit to x/c then jamming rivers to get him to call with AK more often but I don't think that he raises flop and bets turn with AK into 2 players enough for this to be an option. There are a few cards OTR that can kill your action (mainly A,Q) from a hand like KJ so getting it in OTT is probably best.

Hand 2 I'm checking behind OTF. Highly unlikely either has a pair if it was checked to you. Give them a chance to make a hand that they won't fold on the turn/river. Checking flop disguises your hand and you will get called closed to 100% of the time on the turn and river if either villain boats up OTT.

55 fold pre. What is your reason for calling? If I'm at the same table with the same dynamic, i'm raising in LP with a good chunk of my range to eat your dead money. And, in order for your 55 call to be profitable (considering your just set mining by making the call in that position), you need to felt him almost every time you make the call.

As played, your hand is completely face up as a set+. If button is not a total donk, he's folding to any considerable bet unless he has JJ. I'd pretty much take KK out of the range 99% of the time as a button flat is highly improbable.

Check and hope he has JJ. If he checks behind, 300 on the river to try to get him to make a crying call with JK. Doubtful.

Why are you not 3 betting here?
What kind of flop are you looking to hit where flatting 30 on the button with Ac10c is profitable? Let the OMCs play fit or fold. Against his range, you can 3-bet here for value as well as c-bet bluff.

Facing an UTG range which we should felt him a decent % of the time if we hit a set (which we don't even need to felt him 100% of the time due to a multitude of reasons to make it profitable and I have no idea why you think that)

If you don't flat 55 here you're doing it wrong. Especially at 2/5 where people tend to overcall vs this action a ton and you are very likely to have multi-way action. There aren't nearly enough players that play 2/5 that even know what a squeeze play is to worry about getting squeezed too often to flat 55.



Hand 2 - We can't 3bet for value vs an UTG raising range with ATs. I have no idea why you think that we can. ATs may be a little loose to flat actually but it's fine IP with stacks the way they are since we will be able to outplay villain most of the time.

What was your plan on the turn in Hand 1 if you don't bink quads? That's probably more interesting than your actual question.

In Hand 1 think about what you would do as V here: would you ever check KJ behind? The case 5 makes it less likely you have quads; it looks like you were drawing with QT now. He has to charge that to draw. I probably check as a result.

Hand 2: optimal bet size is not large. keep their ranges wider.

Why are you betting flop when checked to in hand 2? We are going to get little to no value from a bet here IMO but we almost always get 2 streets if either villain boats up OTT.

Getting quads usually sucks but hand 1 is pretty cool.

Anything but a bet is ******ed/fps in my opinion. I think small accomplishes the most utility (keeps 2pr in, possibly induces, possibly gets two calls going to the river)

I think I go $385 which sets up the easiest river shove ever.

Basically, if there is a non-zero percent chance he checks back KJ here, we should always be betting.

Hand 2 is w/e, I prolly gay bet flop.

What is happening on the flop in hand 1?

Explain OP?

Betting turn in hand 1 is bad. We lose value vs UTG if BTN raises. BTN is betting almost all of the time given his range and UTG can still continue with some hands that he can't continue with if we bet and BTN raises.

Pay attention to stack sizes. UTG has 170 betting units remaining.

Asian has >1000 betting units remaining.

If he ever checks back KJ here, and I mean ever, then we suck.

I really don't even think betting turn is debatable, sizing is really the only question. Will he cry call $790 on a river blank when we jam with 2pr? Probably, if there is a billion in the pot already.

Really don't think we can just take the $170 out of the equation completely here.

How often do you really think he checks back the turn here with KJ? Less than 5%? And how much value do we miss when he does this? Counting in the $170 we are going to get from UTG almost 100% of the time and our vbet of 70% pot OTR (~$819) we get a total of $989 in the worst case scenario (him checking back turn). This is in comparison to the $1170 we get if we bet turn and jam river and UTG folds. Whereas (which will happen 95+% of the time) if we check turn, villain bets, UTG calls all in, and we jam and villain calls, we get $1340.

If villain OTB raises turn (which he will most likely do with all of his nutted hands (which comprise most of his range)) and we lose the $170 from UTG (given he isn't folding a huge amount due to pot odds, but he is folding a significantly bigger % of the time than a good player given the stakes) then we are making $1170 whereas we are making $1340 95+% of the time when we check turn.

Since there is such a small % chance of our opponent checking behind with KJ and the % of the time that UTG will fold a hand like AK (probably less than 15%) then we need to be checking turn imo. Obviously it's close and neither play is "bad" like I said in my other post. But by betting out OTT and risking losing UTG's $170 of value it leans more towards checking turn due to the fact that BTN is almost never checking back KJ.

Of course it's closer than I make it seem due to the fact that I am not considering river cards such as an A, Q coming OTR.

Hand 1 is a dream scenario, just check to the aggressor. If lead your self you are letting both Villans know you aren't on a draw. Also you get to see if the 1st to act villan is cling a bet. If it happens to check through to the river and checked to you then you can go for value. The last thing you want to do is scare them of when you had the pot locked up.

Hand 2 you should be betting for value and protection as any paint that comes off will ruin your hand. Also you can get an idea your opponents range. Just picking the pot up on the flop win a 1/2 psb isn't a bad result.

BTN": "mid-aged asian reg who can be somewhat loose pf but clearly on the nitty side postflop.... plays solid overall; rarely bluffs, has the goods in big pots - he calls, rest fold"

Do we really think we're getting $1500 out of guy with that description when he has KJ? You're wishcasting.

If your worry is he checks turn with KJ, can you really expect him to call a shove for like $1,000 with that hand. DUCY?

You are arguing for the exact reasons why we donk turn and I don't know how to explain it any other way than you reading your own post.

Using your argument, our donk should be larger. Which I could see valid points for.

And if your question is, do I think Asian will sigh call a $780 shove otr in a pot of $2,700, the answer is, yes, some if not most of the time.

That is why donking $300-$400 is so important, as there is no other way to get in 200bbs by the river otherwise.

i.e., if he folds KJ to a donk or folds river, he is most certainly folding to a turn c/r and/or checking back river.

No, my argument is for why checking is better.

If he has KK or JJ we get it anyway because he never checks behind.

If he has KJ I think he bets more than he checks because he can't give QT a free card but he can fold if we bet, especially if we bet big.

I think you're kidding me if you think he's going to put in $800 more or whatever with KJ now after the action to date. That is not at all the villain described in the OP. If he's getting in $1,500 here, he will have a boat. Period.

My point is you're pretending you can get his stack if he has KJ. I don't think that's possible for the described villain. Checking lets you milk a bet out of him that you may not get otherwise.

Ava this is a 1/2 game versus a middle aged tight reg. He isn't putting in 750 bb with KJ on KJ55. No way.

You are arguing in circles in order to defend a very silly position imo.

So UTG may fold to a turn raise so we should check, but worse case scenario turn checks through and we donk river, Asian calls what is now a large bet in relation to pot, and UTG OVERCALLS?

But he would have folded turn to a raise? Never. These two events could never occur in conjunction with each other.

And besides, my point was not that we should ignore $170 of free money, it's just that I don't see UTG ever folding after putting in 70% of his stack.

Our concern should be getting in 200bbs by the river vs all of Asian's range, which even with this bloated pot is still a challenge.

Couple of nice hands ...

First hand is a check/call on Turn if 3rd party calls also .. if you get HU then I might min raise Turn so I can lead River without throwing up a red flag too much. If Turn Checks through then you need to lead River if checked to or min raise if lead into and hope for something more than what is out there already.

Second hand depends on opponnents. If they are sick of you running the table over the last few hands then I might lead out 40% PSB to induce and then check any paint on Turn to induce. If you feel you cant get any extra out of them without a PP then check it and lead Turn if no action has taken place yet. You have to decide if they will see you as running hot and if they are to the point of fighting back a bit for a street or 2. GL

$375 is a big bet? After he makes it $300 ott? In this pot?

We are not getting $1500 in.

We are getting $1,170 in.

On two streets.

That is the point.

If you can't baby two pair in here by the river you are doing it wrong.

And he just massively squeezed and was called in not one, but two spots.

His checking back frequency is certainly larger than his folding KJ frequency to a $375 donk here.

Did you even read my first post?

I think we'll have to agree to disagree, I just think your strategy is not at all aligned to the Villain in the OP

lol at babying the V into putting 200 more bb in with 2 pair tho

My point is that if the turn checks through UTG is folding exactly 0% of the time and he jams river for value a lot. I said that in general he is folding close to never. But then again, KJ checks back turn almost never. I don't know why you are thinking that KJ is so likely checking back turn here. The point of my last post was to prove mathematically that the % of the time he checks back KJ is so minimal that we are almost always inclined to check to him.

Keep in mind the stakes we are playing also. Villains aren't thinking on the level that you are and he is checking back way less often than you think with KJ because he has top two.

Serious question, how often do you think he's betting KJ, and what do you think his sizing is?

(Range assumptions are fine...like he bets 70-90% of the time, and it's $450-750)

probably bets it 80% of the time for about $500

If you have KJ otb on the turn here what do you do if hero flatted the bet and flatted the raise? Are you betting if checked to you? Are you calling a 1/3-1/2 PSB if hero bets? I'd read this as hero has a set 95% of the time.

Unless I have JJ or hero bets ridiculously small, i'm done with the hand.

Replay the hand with q10. Would you play it the same way?

And as far as hand 2 goes, against a lot of Vs i'm not 3 betting. But against this one particularly (pre) I am. Anyone else have input on that? Curious if yall think its a leak?

This logic implies it really doesn't matter what we do he's folding anyway with KJ