Hi guys,

a hand I played yesterday night at a local cardroom. Table is good, loose passive stations to my right and nitty regs to my left.

Hero: TAG young guy. Unkown to Villian, but he respects me and knows that I only play "good cards".

UTG+2: loose passive fish. min raises Pre with AA and is folding a ton postflop. Limp/f possible.

BB: late 40s, okish dressed. Came over from the Ohmaha Game like half an hour ago (was stuck big time.. but not overly tilty agressive. more on the loose passive tilt side of life). Knows the game. Likes to chase his draws and calls hands like 84s against raises from the blinds. Not much info. No big moves yet.

Hand (10handed table - everyone else folds)

UTG+2 (500€) Limp
Hero (1k in CO) 76 raise 25
BB (420€) call
UTG+2 fold

Flop (60€):

67J

BB check
Hero bets 50 €
BB call (thought like 10 seconds)

Turn (160€)

67J9

BB check
Hero bets 105€
BB all in 385€ (after 3 Seconds)

thoughts?

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pre is debateable, but at this point I was playing very well postflop and everyone at the table respected my game.

Think it's a pretty easy fold

You're beat here already a lot of the time and when you're not he has a bunch of equity against you.

Thanks! I just edited the HH, as I the original HH was not correct. There is a FD OTF.

Does this change your opinion?

Do you see how this doesn't work? Fold pre.



This is contradictory.


As played fold now.

A) the pot on the flop isnt 60, its probably 52-55 depending on rake
(you bet 25 + V called 25 from BB + 1 limp + SB = 57, less rake)

B) Vs stack is either >420 OR he CRAI <385
(420 - 25 pre - 50 flop = 345)

numbers below assume pot 160 and CRAI 385 are the correct numbers:
if he likes to chase draws and he's check raising now, where do you feel he is at?

i'm guessing it's not on a pure draw.

also, he likes to call hands like 84s from the blinds. i'm guessing J9s, J7s, T8s, 97s, 96s, 76s are all in his range then...

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the pot is 650, you need to call 280. 650/280 = 2.29:1, so you need ~30% equity to be EV neutral

the worst case scenario for his range is probably: {JJ,99,77-66,J9s,J7s,T8s,97s-96s,76s}, which you're 4.3% against

this is about what his range needs to be for this to be neutral: {JJ,99,77-66,J7s+,T8s,97s-96s,76s,KcTc,QcTc,Kc9c,Qc9c,Tc9c,9c8c,Tc6c,8c6c}

if he truly will draw by calling only and wont semibluff, then a lot of those combos arent raising here. if V could have roughly 8-10 combos of PP, then this is a call. in other words, if he played QQ/TT/88 like this too, it's probably a call

i dont think this is a pretty easy fold given the equity needed, but i think it is a fold at the end of the day.

Not really, last poster ran through the math really well and that combined with your read that he's more likely to play draws passively makes it even more of a fold. You're basically praying that he turns over something like top pair and a flush draw or you're drawing dead

The Villain's check-raise of 240 (420 - (25 + 50 + 105)), is less than 2/3rds pot. It's a smaller percentage of the pot than your bets so it's not massive.

Fold pre. As played you only beat a bluff.

Thanks guys!

I agree, that pre isn`t good .. raise came in the flow of the game, but I didn`t like it myself on paper.

Results:

I am thinking about villain coming over stuck from the omaha Game (well yeah 30 mins ago) and could be still in CRAI Mode with good combodraws etc. Thank you for the math johnny. That`s really interesting and I agree with you. It`s a fold.

Later on it became very obv, that this villain never bluff raised OOP and played his super strong holdings very fast (donk overbets / big allins OOP).

I ended up calling, bc I felt he could have a strong draw or a J10/J8 kinda hand. Spewy imo.

Villain had T8o

Pre isn't bad if you can play well post.

Calling here is not playing well post.

Just want to point out that you're missing 85s from his range which imo is even more likely than T8s.

And yea op, I've made stupid mistakes like this too where I level myself into seeing something that's not there. Right away after reading I was thinking he's got J9/97/96/T8/85 - time to fold.

I think you can call here sometimes. There should be some pair straight draws /pair flush draws/overpairs in our opponents range, we are getting close to 2:1 and near the middle to high end of our betting range.

I guess it depends just how passive he's playing, but Omaha players love to push draws.

Exactly my thoughts for the call. Later on it became clear, that he was the draw chasing (OOP) kinda guy, who would only RR if he has the goods. I was to focused on the loosing Ohmaha player angle and made a borderline (at best) call vs him.

Memo:

Bet/fold more in LLNSL