This is actually a reverse HH, but I thought it was an interesting spot for my villain, so... Everything from here on out will be from his perspective (and my best guess as to what he thinks of me).

Villain (~$1700) BTN - Decent reg. Maybe too loose and too aggro in some spots. Not afraid to get involved in big pots. Definitely a winning player.

Hero ($1200) - Probably perceived between TAG and LAG. Should be perceived as a good winning player. Played with villain before, but just joined this table recently.

Preflop: Villain straddles button for $10. SB limps, BB limps, two others limps, Hero limps in HJ with As9h, villain checks option on button. One of the guys hero overlimped seems to be a big fish on a heater.

Flop ($60): AdKc9d
(Flops top and bottom for hero)
Checks to hero. Hero bets $45. Villain calls. Everyone else folds.

Turn ($150): Qc
Hero bets $130. Villain thinks for a bit then raises to $315. Hero? If it's a call, plan for the rest of the hand?

Note: villain would have likely raised pre many of the hands that connect with this board. A9+, KQ and maybe weaker broadways, possibly all suited Broadways, medium PPs+, etc. Villain may occasionally squeeze much weaker as well.

I like A9o as a raise (or fold) pre, especially with a chance to iso the huge fish. I prefer A9s for the limp. Tough spot on the turn, he's repping very thin but in these straddled/overlimped pots we're left guessing either way. Esp oop here OTT with about a PSB behind after calling his raise, I don't see how we could ever fold when the river bricks. I fold turn. If we do anything else, I think we're overplaying this hand in what is essentially a limped pot.

Probably raise pre, bet less on the flop, certainly less on this turn - now call once and check decide all rivers.

Fold pre, turn is way too big, AP fold turn

Flat and check call most rivers. Aside from JT obviously this is the absolute top of our range, so folding vs an aggro player is not on my agenda, particularly when he didn't raise pre either. He could have JT, but other than that it's going to be random draws, T9cc and J8dd and that sort of thing.

I'd probably check fold a diamond.

Results of hand... Hero ships. Villain (who is actually me/op) has the nuts with TJo and holds.

A bunch of people at the table commented on this hand, and how terrible this guy's ship was, but I actually don't think it was all that bad against me because:
1. I'm not usually going to be drawing to a naked gutter with flush draw on board, a 3/4 pot sized bet, and four other people in the hand. The only reason I did was because the whale in this hand was calling crazy wide then making moves when things like gutters got there. And also, I felt gambly.
2. I probably don't have TJdd in my range, as this would often be a raise pre.
3. I have no sets in my range.
4. I have some two pairs, mostly K9, that might be a little tough to get away from.
5. For whatever gutshot draws I have in my range, I also have various bluffs setting up a river ship with so many bad cards to come on river for a hand like A9 or worse (knowing that hero in op is probably capped at A9).
6. My sizing was kinda small for the nuts on this board - with two possible flush draws to slow down river action. I would raise quite a lot more against most players, but I thought I'd actually look more bluff/semibluff-heavy by raising small against this particular guy.

To whoever ITT that thinks turn is a fold, that would really be quite bad to fold the very top of your range against my raise here.

this.

I also don't mind a check on the turn. yes, we are giving a free card on a nasty board, but with V's range so polarized to combo diamond draws, I am ready to play small ball and just call down all runnouts that don't have a diamond.

When V pops it on the turn, and we call, we are almost committed to calling any river that is not a diamond or a Q

Shipping is absolutely awful, possibly worse than folding. Youd have raised flop with K9 and youd fold it vs a ship. Other than that shipping gets called by better, doesnt make anything better fold, and removes your ability to bluff. Its like a canonical example of a bad ship, if you Google "when not to reraise in no limit hold them" this thread ought to be result #1.

The turn is a very easy fold. You're not value raising worse than J10 here ever, esp when the BTN himself can have all 16 combos of J10/9 combos of A9. You're super polarized to bluffs & J10, but you never have a bluff here. You can say you have a bluffing range here, but I don't believe it. Esp when a guy bets flop for 75%, and continues to blast the turn for 87% pot even after J10o gets there & bringing in an additional flush draw. His range here OTT is a nutted combo draw/two pair+. You should realize that bluff-raising this turn with any hand is massively -EV. It also sounds like you have a bad image & opponents don't give you too much credit in general anyway, so raising here as a bluff is kamikaze. Plus, you never need to have a bluff if people assign you bluffs in your perceived range.

And second of all, I'd never end up in this pot with flopped top & bottom because I'd either iso super large pre or fold with A9o. So this isn't the top of my range. The top of my range here is J10, and I'm happily ripping it in on this turn. I'm definitely not folding the "very top" of my range here.

I didn't need to see results to know whoever raised the turn has J10 97% of the time, an unlikely overplayed weaker two pair 2% of the time, or some random spaz/combo draw 1% of the time.

He absolutely has a bluff range in this spot, OP described him as "maybe too loose and too aggro in some spots".

Your post is inconsistent. On the one hand you're saying BTN doesn't have a bluff range, yet as HJ you want to fold all your value hands except JT. HJ virtually cannot have JT unless it's JTdd, because he bet flop into 5 opponents. And JTdd he may have preflop raised. So why wouldn't button bluff? You can't retreat into "oh well technically maybe it's a fine spot to bluff, but lol trying to bluff people at LLSNL" because HJ is described as a good player (questionable given the awful reraise, but we all have random blowups from time to time).

Given the board textures and suits, it's really hard to have any bluffs here in the first place. You can try to name some reasonable bluffing candidates on this turn, but it's unlikely you'll be able to come up with more than even a few. There are literally very few hands on this flop that you can float with double backdoors with, which OP is implying he can have. I.e. gutshot OTF + backdoor clubs. Yeah he can have J7cc/J8cc, but that's about it. Even then, he might iso pre or just fold flop with 3 people left to act. His hand has literally no value other than runner runner. And if he's "too aggro" in some spots, he would probably raise flop at some frequency with his diamonds OTF.

I didn't say the BTN doesn't have a bluff range. I said his range is combo draws/2 pair/JT. As the HJ here, I would never have A9o in my turn barreling range, or any Ax for that matter. So my turn barreling range here OTT is basically J10 only, and I'm not folding that.

And you don't know that HJ "virtually cannot have JT unless it's JTdd." No one raised pre, 3 people checked it to him, the BTN usually doesn't have anything on this board texture. He is for sure stabbing with JT at some decent frequency, (esp JdTx or JxTd). He will basically never get x'red on this board, if BTN folds and someone else calls, he gets a guaranteed free turn and river. If I somehow overlimped with J10o, I'm probably auto-stabbing this flop in the HJ.

Your post is inconsistent. "We all have random blowups from time to time," but you're saying HJ basically never has JT here when he bets flop? That really doesn't make any sense.

I would expect a good reg to basically never bluff-raise this turn when he a has a terrible image, esp given the general population tendency to underfold and overcall, which is going to be more pronounced if you have a bad aggro image. I didn't even notice if OP put that as his image or not (being a good reg to his opponent's eyes), but if he did it makes it way less likely he's bluffing here with something ******ed like J7cc/J8cc & that A9o here is an instamuck.

And the problem is, the very rare times he is bluffing, he has a lot of equity. And the other times, he will always have the straight which HJ is drawing pretty dead to. You don't seem to disagree with my point that OP will basically never have worse value raises facing the flop and turn action, esp since you're saying he's a good player.

I disagree that I could have no bluffs on the turn. I'd be reading V's bet-sizing as he could have some A-rag hand that just wants to take it down or is trying to charge me maximally to draw, so I'm really not putting much stock in the large sizing. It's a bad spot for either of us to have JT (without a FD). Keep in mind that early position limpers can and do show up with monsters (AK/AA/KK wanting to limp RR pre, plus 99) that will x/r flop, and maybe an occasional combo draw (but I don't see that many players x/r'ing draws).

I think with hands like J4dd or K2dd or 96cc or A4cc, I might raise turn hoping or a little bit of FE on turn and a lot of FE on river. It's a place where I might occasionally ship rivers if any club, diamond, ten, jack, or king peels, regardless of whether it made my hand. Obviously not just going to always be spewing chips - I'll always be more value than bluff heavy if I jam a river - but I think it's a pretty tough spot for most of villain's turn calling range.

1. When posting a reverse hand history, it's probably counterproductive to say that it's reversed.

2. I think you should cross reference the people who tell Hero to fold pre with people who derided the BTN straddle in the BTN straddle thread. It's inconsistent to say people are going to crazy-attack your straddle and then advocate folding A9o from the HJ.

3. I think there's an awful lot of projection in Hero's read of Villain. Bad players often cannot tell bad play from good play (sounds obvious but it's not) and honestly a lot of the reads that start with "Hero has a solid winning image" are lol.

4. Hero should raise pre and call most 3-bets from Villain.

5. As played, Villain has a decapitated range and is practically incapable of hitting AK9r. His continuing range is going to be mostly offsuit gutshots, 9x, and weaker Kx. I would check expecting him to bet a lot wider than he's going to call, and raise large.

6. As played, turn is a nasty card. Even if I check/raised the flop, again, Villain's betting range is wider than his calling range so I'd check and then soul read the probability he has JT vs Q9/bluffs. I expect that Villain has a checkback range on the turn, probably Kx/Qx-ish hands (including KJ/QJ/KT/QT if he doesnt raise tjose preflop), so those can be taken out.

Grunching:

Against a player who doesn't get too far out of line that often, this is a fold. Hero showed nothing but strength. Villain is repping thin, but this kind of strength is almost always the nuts for most low limit players.

However, I think this is a shove against an aggro. V really just repping J10. The turn improved a lot of hands in V's range into combo draws (JsXs, 10sXs, AcXc, AJ, and A10.) Turn also gave aggro V a good scare card to bluff with. GII and get value from the combo's.

This will be a tough decision against a balanced player.

The only correct action from the A9 guy was the flop bet

So raise pre, bet, ck-c, ck?

Not betting turn seems kinda weak, but ok I'll get on board with jamming being very spewy

I don't even know why JT can't be a simple complete from the BTN given a) stack depth and postflop playability, b) the fact there are 5 limpers already involved and c) the propensity for players to l/rr in straddled pots.

I will gladly see a free flop with JTs here and my soul read would be to put you on exactly JT rather than a JTo (except a few JTx) that called with only 3 non-dirty outs.

It can be. Yeah I'm not always raising this pre, but I am a lot. It's a single combo though, kinda hard to have... And yeah I guess the 3 unsuited combos of JdTx I'm going to be floating with and stabbing at some diamond turns... Thing is, if I have all of JdTd, QdTd, QdJd, I'm not just going to always be passively calling and hoping to hit my hand. As I said previously, while I'm building my BR, I am often opting for lower variance plays, but without that being a big consideration, I do like to raise turns when I know my villain is mostly capped, and I think I have some FE now and more FE on the river, plus plenty of equity to make the best hand.