2/5, 9 handed, $500 effective. Hero has only been playing with villain for ~ 45 minutes, but he's clearly a losing LAG. Hero probably has an aggro image to villain if he's paying attention.

OTTH

Loose passive limps UTG, hero raises A K $25 LJ, player with a super wide calling range vs raises pre calls BTN, villain calls BB, and UTG limp-calls.

Flop ($102): J 5 2. X to hero who bets $40 and BTN + villain call.

Turn ($222): A. Villain checks, hero bets $125, BTN folds, and villain shoves for $435. Hero?

Call, if villain is Losing LAG you may be facing 2pair (less likely AJ since I’m guessing even UTG LAG’s will raise this pf) and bottom/mid set is also a possibility but live casino lags are incredibly unpredictable and their ranges and shoving standards can easily be affected by their emotions, money won/lost in the last few sessions etc. I hate stacking off with just TPTK but given the board texture I would call, you will be wrong some of the time to turned 2 pair but folding TPTK to jams (against these types of players) in the long run will lose you money.

You should never ever be good here.

Should be 5 ways to the flop right?

And you only have 310 left after you bet the turn.

Anyways I think this is a fold. Even if he called flop really loose this looks a lot like a turned 2 pair to me regardless of what his starting pair was.

Once in a blue moon he's a maniac who floated w KQ and now thinks he's bluffing you off KK(lol, I guess). I suppose he could have AQ and figure he can never fold for the rest so he may as well put it in to deny you any draw you might have w KQ or pK's(even though that's only 2 outs), thinking you are never putting in another penny when behind. This is the only kind of reasoning I can come up with to put you ahead but basically, you should never be ahead here.

edit: Checking turn is where it's at.

Really can't figure out your flop bet reasoning and that sizing. As played calling it off vs this type of guy just not thrilled. Lots of A3 and A4, Ax with bdfd, spazzes. The good thing and tipping point here usually is they are easy to get it back from.

5 ways I would typically check the flop.

Hmm I didn’t see there was 5 to the flop, as someone mentioned above, should’ve checked flop. With that said pot is more bloated then need be so you put yourself in a tough spot having 190 committed and facing a jam with 310 behind...if this were against 1-2 callers (headed to the flop) I’d call. vs 4 callers the others are right, it’s a much easier fold

+1
In so much players I definitely check the flop

With an aggro image I’m definitely checking A high on the flop multi-way. B/f $125 on the turn makes sense but maybe you could mix in some turn checks.

Although you’ll usually have the best hand, you may not be ahead of two players’ continuation ranges. An A or K are good range cards for you to barrel on but not for value since your opponents are aware it hits you

We are not five ways to a flop, we are four ways; OP is correct. I'm assuming UTG limp-calling is what's causing the confusion?

As to why I bet the flop - it's a bone dry board...4 ways or less I've been just c betting bone dry boards and it's been working well. I don't see why not...I'm confident that this gets through the needed 28% of the time. Also, we have solid backdoor equity + two overs if called. I see no reason to check this flop.

Turn is interesting the first time around. Do we x or bet? I totally see the reason for checking; it's going to be hard to get value from worse, and we're essentially hoping Jx thinks we're FOS. I totally get the reasoning behind checking. However, what about when we don't have it? I'm betting the flop with my entire range, which admittedly isn't super wide because of table dynamics - we'll say T9s is the absolute bottom of my range here. So we bet T9s otf, then the turn is a card Q+. That's an excellent card to bluff. Do we just say "it's LLSNL and so we bet when the A comes when we're bluffing, and x it when we actually have it?"

It may be working for now but this is a huge leak.

Depends on ranges, but you're saying in this spot you're confident we get action more than 72% of the time? I find that very hard to believe. Are you suggesting checking here 3 ways as well?

Obviously you can cbet more often the less people in the hand, so I would cbet occasionally 3 ways, but you're really just betting and hoping they fold. We both know you don't want called in that situation.

It all depends on the players and what Ive seen them call preflop raises with and how often they continue with less than TP. If anyone of them will call with less than TP, betting is spew.

Cbetting 4 ways with overcards isnt going to be profitable IMO. Even moreso when there's a broadway card on the board. Even when you pair up on the turn, someone can improve to 2 pair. Then there's there the times someone already had a set. That looks like the situation in this exact hand. Now youve lost a pretty decent chunk for no reason. You definitely don't want to be betting a flop 4 ways when one or more of them are LAGs.

When you do bet, your bet has to be small (like yours was) and youre just asking people to float you with weaker overcards or something like bottom pair. Once you get called you have no idea where you are. I think its just a bad strategy in general.

I pretty much cap myself at four ways as being the max that I'll attack bone dry flops as a bluff. Seriously, ranges are pretty damn wide here that I think not c betting is a leak.

I would agree with you about not betting flop here with more than one LAG, but with just one LAG in the hand, especially in the worst position, I don't think it's a large enough factor to justify a check. Remember, this just has to get through 28% of the time for it to be profitable. I would be shocked if this gets through anywhere NEAR 28% of the time...ranges are just so wide here, and to everyone except villain, hero has a super nitty image.

You mean you think it will get thru more than 28% of the time, right? I dont think it will. Not when you bet that small.

I wish there was a reasonable way to run data analysis on spots like this for live poker

Maybe next time bet a nickle and see if that works

Yeah I’m definitely in the camp of not cbetting this spot. I don’t think it gets through here nearly enough for it to be profitable.
As played I don’t think I’m calling here. What are we ahead of? Like A3 and A4 that called flop with a gutter and all of a sudden thinks his Ace is good to you that’s shown aggression on all streets? His range is almost always 2p+. Just because he’s LAG doesn’t mean he can never have it, especially in spots where it would make no sense to bluff.

I don't mind the flop bet because we're 2nd to last. If button has p4's or even 7's maybe he should call but w 2 players who checked to the preflop raiser(meaning that their checks don't mean they missed) I think he will often fold rather than hope we have missed oc's *and* that the other two players missed. If the button folds we will have position.

I like to cbet partly because I think it makes my opponents less likely to play wide pre vs me because they know they'll not often see the turn for free so then I can narrow their ranges; this is my sense anyway. Maybe this is a scared-money attitude.

On the turn we should be checking both when we hit and when we miss(giving up largely). So what would our value betting range be in this spot, it looks like it just may be JJ, AA and AJ. Maybe that's too few but these hands win huge vs 2 pair while AK loses huge vs 2 pair.

Check flop 4 way, if betting, 40 is never getting through
AP fold turn, lots of turned 2p and straights can play this way

Im glad there isnt. The last thing we need for live poker is a pokertracker-ish program that turns live poker into data analysis instead of real poker. We have to use our brains, our reads and our experience....not just look at a database (HUD) to tell us what to do.

There is, you give each of the other three players a preflop range and a continuing range and see if you hit 28%.

You probably don't, especially since the J is a pretty highly weighted card in their preflop ranges, even as their preflop ranges expand.

I occassionally bet these sorts of flops multiway, but always with a great image and a plan of continuing on the turn with my 'obvious' overpair. Doesn't sound like you have that

Once we get to the turn, we're at the bottom of our value range betting this, and should have an easy fold to the raise. We shouldn't bet this combo 100% of the time, but occassionally is fine

We could bet smaller on the “scare card” turn.

Tough spot. I fold. Could have suited Ax. Sets.