Game Dynamics:

Semi aggressive. About 3 aggressive regulars who are so-so in terms of skills, 1 professional sharks, 1 absolute nit, 3 passive fish.

Villain (MP): passive fish who likes limping.

Villain (BTN): LAG whom seldom fold to my 3 bets. Can float and get stubborn post flop.

Hero: playing tight so far, possibly played 4-5 hands over the past 1-2 hours.

Preflop:

Passive villain(MP) limps in.

LAG Villain(BTN) with 150bb stack size raise to to 4.5bb.

Hero (BB) with a 200 bb stack, 3 bet light to 13bb with K7 hoping to get folds with my tight image.

LAG villain paused and then called. Heads-up to flop.

Flop (~28bb) 494

Good board to cbet I think and so I fired 20bb. Villain called after pausing.

Turn (68bb): 4

I got 2 options now.

1. Fire another cbet
2. Make a check raise

I paused for awhile and analysed the situation. The villain is a LAG who is likely to make an obvious float with weak hands like small pocket pairs or Ax unpaired hands.

How often can I get him to fold small-mid pocket pairs here by cbetting? Is he likely to bet turn with unpaired hands if I checked?

Considering all these, I decided to make a check. He obliged to bet 30bb and I shoved. He needs to make a call of 80bb here.

Question:
I did a simple math calculation. For my bluff to be breakeven, I need him to fold about 50% of his hands.

As such, is this check raise bluff profitable?

Does not compute.

Your reads in the op say the BTN never folds to your 3 bets and is sticky post. 3 betting with the intent of taking it down later seems unlikely to succeed.

As played the turn c/r prob maximizes your fold equity. You have little pot equity however. Given the board id expect him to fold his overcards, but call with his better pairs. You may get enough folds depending on how widely he will float, but getting yourself into this position in the first place sucks. Theres also a really goid chance you are bluffing with the best hand here.

Against a guy who's calling all bets pre and sticky post, take him to value town...

It does actually. It all depends on his current view of my image.

I have only 3 bet him at most 2-3 times over 10 hours of plays we had together over different sessions. It is not the case of me constantly 3 betting him in the current session and he always call. In fact, I have been playing so tight that this is actually my first 3 bet of the day.

In addition, the LAG raise is likely to be an isolation raise vs fish, especially when he has button. K7 suited is too good to fold in that situation but too bad to call preflop. Hence, I think 3 betting is a good option vs wide ranges.

+1

I agree that when my light 3 bet fails, I am in a sticky position post flop.

sucks all around

3betting suited garbage oop is mostly lol in live poker

Then may I know what you propose to do with K7 suited?

You know that the LAG villain ranges is wide. You know he is making a positional play to isolate fish a lot of times.

Maybe it is my playing style, but I do not like to fold K7 suited in this juicy situation.

fold it.

I don't see how K7s is going to fair well vs villains wide range. Playing oop vs a sticky villain with garbage is not the way to go.

fold

seems you overrate your hand relative to the situation

there's few instances where K7s stands to play favorably oop HU in a bloated pot vs a stubborn villain...

perhaps if stacks were deeper and you had a hand that wasn't complete garbage I'd be on board with a timely light OOP 3bet

but you're only 150bb effective with king effing 7 sooted, dude

oh... so you definition of light 3 betting hands are AK, AQ, AJ, AT, mid pocket pairs when villain ranges are wide.

Got it.

no

I think your plan is the same as lighting money on fire.

But what do I know....

if you must play that hand, why not just call pre, and then dump it on the flop?

why commit your whole stack to a bluff that you yourself say is maybe 50% to succeed.

I think the "does not compute" comment was because you said you 3bet for folds right after saying the LAG never folds to your 3bets and is stubborn post flop. I don't think he cares what your image is here.

The only thing this board could help you with your image is pp's. And if V has a pp then he's prob not going away. I don't think its a bad idea to rep big pockets on this board, but doesn't sound like this is the guy you wanna do it with.

Can you use $$ amounts? Easier for me to grasp and read...

I think your play looks fine.. if the LAG can hand read and isn't a total station he should be folding most small PPs to your c/r here.. it's pretty marginal since you really have almost no equity when called.. but I think you should get enough folds to make this a profitable play

good job