Villain in this hand has been around for perhaps 2 orbits, with no significant history. My read is that he is able, unlikely to make big moves with air. He is not especially loose pf. I have been raising pf a fair amount and cbetting where needed, but no hands have progressed past the flop.

~1200 eff

Hero is UTG+1 with AK. UTG limps, Hero raises to 30. UTG+2 calls pretty quick, CO calls, rest fold.

Flop: 9 8 3

Hero leads 60. Villain calls in 5 sec, CO folds.

Turn: 5

Hero bets 125. Villain thinks for ~30 sec and raises to 275.

Call, raise small, or ship? Stack sizes feel a bit awkward to jam. Calling risks a lot of cards that kill my action or worse, plus will be OOP.

Basically, if villain is a fish you just 3bet gii because he's unlikely to be bluffing and won't fold worse value hands.

If villain is not a fish, flat because you block villain's value hands so he may be trying to bluff you and can't call a re-raise, or may be able to fold a smaller flush if you re-raise, so it's better to let him think you don't have the nuts.

raise to like 575 set up a river jam

Flat vs non droolers

All these posts like "well if he's a fish/drooler do this". We have the same info as OP had at the time of the hand; we don't really know but lean toward semi competent.

As played call turn.

Assuming flat, what do folks recommend on the following rivers:

1) blank
2) 2
3) the board pairing

I dunno, I think we have to raise here vs basically everyone because the only hand that's really bluffing here is the A and we have that card in our hand. So it seems like we should be the ones attempting to make our hand look like the bare A and 3-bet the turn.

I would definitely want to flat KQ

1) check/jam
2) probably bet ~$300/jam
3) check/jam I think. Seems like it'd be weird for him to play a set like this on the flop/turn

Another reason I like the 3-bet with our hand is because we have the K too which means when the river is a spade, he is much more likely to check behind the river so we have to bet ourselves. If he has the K he'd be likely to bet when checked to.

We're not flatting because we think villain is bluffing often, we're flatting cause we block Kxss and everything but that (maybe even including that) is gonna hate their life and maybe let it go if we 3bet turn.

Leading close to pot on 2s turn as I think our only chance of getting called is by a non believer heroish call.

On blank I'm x/r

On board pair I think it's really close because when he raises turn he has like zero boats (some random set/2p spaz maybe) and we have all the boats so he might x/b board pair or just b/f small to our x/r anyways. I would bet/fold on a board pair. Probably like 3/4, 3/5 pot. I would bet/call Axss no king though.

I think the only good reason to flat here is to keep our villain's range wide (i.e. including bluffs). If we think he's never bluffing, then I don't think being scared of him finding a hero fold is a good reason not to 3-bet. He's more likely to stack off when there are fewer cards on the board with a strong hand I think. Especially since he can put us on just the A, which we will definitely want to occasionally have (probably AK/AQ are good ones to choose).

I can't think of a single hand villian calls in Utg +2 and bluff raises in this spot (kxqs but that's really reaching) so I think you'll be seeing either lots of flushes/sets raising this turn

so I would be calling turn and X/r blank, lead on 2s (he's probably checking back entire range) and calling on board pairing river (but not loving it)

Alternatively 3bet jamming/committing isn't terrible

If you wanna jam turn jam Axss without Ks and some naked As

You might be right. I'm going back and forth on whether having the K makes me want to call or raise. On one hand, blocking the K means river spades kill our action way more than if we didn't have the K. People are more likely to continue to fire river with K flush than with worse flushes.

But on the other hand, he's less likely to stack off turn with lower flushes.

Dunno.

Results - I was confident he had approximately 0 bluffs here, but I hated being OOP and figured that ~30% of the deck killed my action on the river. Jamming seemed overkill (1000 dollar reraises are hard to call especially when I have the spades crushed) so I raised to 600, thinking he wouldn't be able to resist coming along with his value hands.

He tanked for 3 min and folded. Good points regarding having the K spade locked up - without that I like a jam a lot more.

600 too much, I make it 425. He'll never fold a smaller flush for that price.

the only hands he can have are 67 and smaller spades. You can shove and try to make your hand look like Ax, but I still don't think you will get called.

Best value is to flat the turn and then lead the river for 250 ish. He is calling that every time.

You guys have to stop worrying about scare cards coming in (for you or villain) and start worrying about the easiest way to stack villains when they show aggression.

Oftentimes, it is to allow them to continue their aggression. Even in live poker, people make crazy folds when we give them a reason to. Note how Tom flats the turn 3b in this hand and then checks river.

To be fair, if I ever have 53o on A842hh I'm never stopping raising. That's not a good example.

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Heh, its a rainbow, the prompter thing messed up.

But it does illustrate a point where im sure tom realizes he has coolered the crap out of this guys set, and yet he still flats.

I know it is not apples to apples hand history and i get alot of hate for my mental archive of tom videos but it illustrates a point at a higher level.

He flats a TON of his vulnerable value hands even on wet boards when facing aggression. It was one of the things that really stuck out to me when watching him.

I realize that this isnt a wet board and his hand isnt *terribly* vulnerable, by why not just keep putting money in ott? Bc villain is 100% stacking off when he flats/checks.

Given his sizing, I think this V is good enough to know that he has your range in pretty bad shape on this turn especially when you bet-bet from EP
(I'm not sure why you don't seem aware of this/would ever even consider a bet, bet-3b line - unless you're also leading with AsQx hands otf for some reason which would be pretty bad)

He has all the sets, and probably straights and NF combos (if he calls a little loose from UTG2), so you have a very very easy tank call on the turn here with the nuts.

The river is quite routine - ck jam non-nut changing rivers for fat value (your go-to value line with this hand), always lead very small on a river spade, and ck-decide (never raising) a paired board.

Never assume its a mistake to raise with the best hand. You prob werent getting a dime more in this hand even if you flat so ita not worth the effort. Wake me when u actually have AsKc

This although we have As so V can't have NFD. I think donk/folding for 310ish on pairing rivers is not bad, people don't like to fold flushes and V is never raising worse.

Best way to stack villain's QJ / JT seems to be call turn -> x/jam river. We probably don't have many sets here in villain's mind (if he is even thinking about our hand) and a board pairing 9/8 will make villain feel better about his flush compared to a 5 or 3. A fourth spade should only peel off ~13% of the time so not too worried about scare cards.

^^^I totally agree.

There is also a chance, albeit small, that V is running a super sick multi-street bluff. So let's flat the turn, and x/jam the river.