2/5 at Mardis Gras in Charleston, WV. I was passing through town, and they had just reopened the room the night before after 15 months of Covid shutdown. The place was lively, lots of drinking.

Our table was creating huge pots due to some drunk whales. The villain in this hand is an older, passive-ish player who wasn't drinking. My image was probably tight/solid - and I had some good showdowns calling down the whale with marginal hands.

The hand; 8 or 9 handed - $10 UTG straddle

Villain has about $880, I have him covered

UTG raise to $35, 3 callers including villain in MP, I call w 99 on button, straddle calls

$205 in pot

Flop: K93

UTG check, villain leads $50, folds to me, raise to $185, folds to villain who calls

$575 in pot

Turn: A

Villain checks, hero?? I feel fairly certain he is on a flush draw... Villain has about 575 left. I'm considering shove vs smaller bet. If not all-in, what size?

Very very easy shove.

I think it might help for you to take your hand-reading logic to the next level here to determine why a large size fits. I won't get into your range here, it matters less i think since your question really is about sizing concepts.

So, if the older passive-type player leads a FD, he likely had a pair with it. If the same player plays a naked FD this way, then that same player should call a turn shove at some frequency (and he's not that passive). If the same player plays a NFD this way, he just turned TP and always calls turn shove. He also has all AK often and those always call a shove because he lead flop, called a raise, AND improved turn. There's also 33, KK, AA in range, but those are rare considering overall line.

KT-KQ is less likely given description and line, but it's possible they're in there too. If they called flop, they might call a turn shove, but probably not, but you already got the max from those hands.

Shove.

Riiiip it in. If he has a flush draw, he just "improved" to a pair plus flush draw. And if he has AKs/AKo, biiiingo

Bet $6 and frown at him menacingly.

Shoving is obviously good, especially if you think he'll call off with pair+fd (if so then this is by far the best option)

If you think he will fold draws vs a shove and is also bluffy we can check and let him bluff the river if the draws miss. This is the much higher variance play and would need a very solid read that he's bluffing when he misses at a very high frequency.

I'm not suggesting that you use the second option but it makes more sense than going small trying to target one pair hands. We have full house, flush completing, outs that make this hand less vulnerable than one or two pair. It's strong enough to at least consider trapping.

But I'm just shoving vs 95+% of villians since we don't block top pair or flush draws

Vs range is going to include
- bigger Kx hands, probably even AK, because “it’s a drawing hand”
- FDs, probably all of which are A high and K high or SD/FD variety. it’s doubtful he has something like 76dd
- naked gutter balls some % of the time
- 33 some % of the time

Shoving is fine. Betting smaller to try to pick up calls from Kx and the gutter balls is also an option. You could bet smaller to like 225 and his FDs still are calling incorrectly (except the combo draws, which barely gets the equity, but then go to 250 and they don’t, but combo draws are only 3 combos of his whole range so I wouldn’t worry too much about them)

V is described as oldish, passive and not drinking. He’s not bluff shoving missed rivers. The chances we have that information from a V of a place were just passing through is highly unlikely and should have been included in the OP is we had it. It’s safe to assume we don’t have that information and to really on population reads like old/passive men aren’t bluff shoving rivers

note: above i forgot AKdd and were 70/30 against it.

Just shove. I think it's the best way to get all the money in while good.

While I mostly agree with a turn shove, I just don't think it's automatic. A tactic that works well is to bet an amount that commits the Villain, without the Villain realizing it, until the river shove. It depends on a more detailed read of the villain. Generally, the pot should look like it's 4-5 times bigger than his remaining chips OTR, making a crying river call easier.

It comes down to a judgment call. If you think it's more likely that he's sticky and will call a turn shove getting 2:1, do it. If not, then cut the bet size down to 1/2 pot and give him 3:1, then shove the river when the pot is 4 times bigger than his stack.

Do we need a raising range mw on this flop IP?

Thats why I put multiple qualifications in my post lol. It's an idea for another hand if nothing else

No V is stacking himself against our continues which do better as calls for about 100 reasons. Granted you likely can come up w some strategy that includes flop raises, but mostly calls. For the most part, V is pre-empting our bluffs which is super horrible OOP.

Thanks for the responses. I do think a shove here is best. I didn't properly break down his hand on the turn. I saw his hand as 'flush draw', but didn't really think about the fact that is was likely paired K flush draw, or paired A flush draw - making a shove more likely to be called.

And I saw 33 as a slight possibility, but felt ok as I crush that, anyway.

I bet $325-375 (can't recall exactly but I think 325), as I thought I was like 85-15 to win. He called.

Pot = $1485ish

River 2, barf. Villain pauses about 5 seconds, stacks up his chips, and is all-in for $240ish.

Fold because duh obv? Or call due to priced in?

End result was I called off the $240, which I *think* was atrocious.

It was one of those psychological lapses - at a great table, can't get anything going, have to leave in the next few minutes... there's so much in the pot.

He had KJ

I think he was a slight favorite to call a turn shove, but might've folded.

Either way, I think:
- I should've shoved turn
- I should've folded river (let me know if anyone thinks pot is too big to fold there, but based on player type, especially, it seems about 0.5% bluff likelihood...

Thanks again.

no way i am ever folding river, even if villain shows me his flush.

Just shove turn, and then hope he calls. Diamond river is irrelevant once you do that.

Once you don't, there is almost zero chance you have the best hand facing his shove-the-rest bet.