Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 192
V1(~$720) - is known as a fish in the room. He gets out of line and raises ATC with pretty high frequency
V2($600) is a good player. he is also aware of V1 image and tendencies
Hero($2000+) - has a LAG image. I have shown preflop 3bets with AA and with 78s so I have a wide perceived 3bet range. I haven't had to show any bluffs after river so I probably have a "only actually bets if he has it after the flop image".
OTTH:
V1 in HJ raises to $20. V2 calls in CO. Hero raises on the button to $55 with K6hh. (I know it's a thin 3bet but with villians described I think I can take it down a lot at that point. I probably should have made it a bit bigger though if that's what I'm trying to do - anyway, the 3bet is not what I am asking about).
V1 calls, V2 calls.
Flop ($165 (SB and BB fold and $7 taken for rake + promo fund)):
345r
V1 and V2 check.
Kind of a dream flop for me other than flopping the nuts or a flush. It should be very dry for their 3bet call ranges but i guess a 67s could still be there or maybe a set from V2 given he had decent odds to call after V1 called. Anyway, in position with the open ender I am definitely betting it. Hero bets 120, V1 calls, V2 folds (gets rid of his set possibility).
Starting to range V1: Either two big cards where he thinks he is still ahead and can call the flop bet, or maybe a small overpair like 66-TT. I think with QQ+ he is 4-betting 99% of the time preflop. JJ I still think he 4bets. If not, I think he raises on the flop to "see if (hero) has a bigger overpair or just two big cards". A smaller possibility that he flopped a set (he would raise the flop most of the time) and a small possibility I'm crushed and he has 67.
Turn ($405): 9c, 2nd club on the board
Still not a bad card for Hero. V1 checks. I think I can still continue to rep a big overpair and bet $225. Villain raises to $450 (he meant to go all-in for $560 but only put out like $350 at first and said raise so the dealer made it a min raise). It's 225 to call to win a $1080 pot plus V1 has about $100 behind. The last 100 is going in every time if I hit so I work that into my quick mental calculations. Importantly, I almost entirely get rid of the possibility that he has 67 at this point because why would he raise now if he had that? He risks scaring me off when he has the nuts and if he just calls he has 350ish left with a 850 pot going to the river. He should think he can get it in against my overpair on the river. He is not a high level thinking poker player so I don't think he is doing some 3rd or 4th level stuff thinking that I will be thinking this about him. He is just betting his hand that he thinks is best right now.
225 to call to win $1180 (plus my 225 that I put in) with 8 outs. I also actually take into account that a K may win it for me if he has a hand like TT-JJ. I give myself an extra out (out of 3 kings) in my head so I give myself 9 outs. No 2 or 7 helps him so I don't take away any outs.
I hit the 2 and showed and the table gave me a lot of **** for calling the turn raise but it seems to be +EV to me. So, was it a good call or bad call?
