Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
Sorry, misread board on my phone. 46cc and 68cc (flopped OESD and FD) is what I meant when I wrote 67cc, which is not actually a 15 out draw. Neither is KTcc. I didn't think of 89/9Tcc, but they are definitely more likely than the flopped 15 outers that would often have c/r flop. I might go so far as to say 4 combos, in that case (6 available, two usually play this way, and the others do maybe half the time). Still not my main concern. There's way more stuff in his range.
All that said, why are we c-betting so small on a wet board? I go 2/3-pot minimum, and prefer 3/4. The problem seems to stem more from that, imo. If we go $105 OTF, the pot is $350, and if we pot turn, even if we plan to GII on all non-flush rivers, V always has 15 outs, and V always folds unless he hits, he is still not getting the right price.
In that case V is about 30% to hit.
70% of the time, he loses $350 (-245)
16% of the time he hits a flush and you fold river, so he wins $700 (+112)
14% of the time he hits something else and gets our last $180 effective too (+123)
Total EV for V is -$10, even in this worst case scenario.
I rarely go much more than 2x my preflop bet on flops, and tend to make my flop bets smaller than what's generally thought to be standard here, and this strategy has worked out well for me.
Keep in mind that when I bet this flop, I'm going to have some flush draws, hands like 89s here, maybe KJdd/JTdd, 78s/67s/56s (especially with diamonds), possibly pocket pairs under the Q, maybe even some airballs like AJ/AT (especially with a ace-club or two diamonds), etc. It's really a game flow type of thing that determines how often I'm cbetting into multiple villains, but regardless I need to get a good price on my cbets/double barrels. And I really don't want people to pick up on it if I'm always betting more when I have top pair+ than when I don't.
Furthermore, I want to make it relatively cheap for myself to fold to some tight-passive's x/r, don't want sets to slowplay on me as I just go bombs away. Betting half pot here works well for me to possibly catch some reads while building up a pot, and maybe invite some weaker hands along like underpairs with two outs and second/third pair with five outs, plus maybe some things like A-high floats that have very little equity. I just generally don't try too hard to price out draws on the flop, and I think whatever value I lose is made up for in other ways.
If somebody can convincingly prove how betting significantly more on this flop is better for this particular hand against three opponents and for my range in general, then I'm all ears, but so far this style of play works out for me.
In general, my opinion has been that many regs/2+2ers often bet too much on flops and often not enough - or become too passive - on turns and rivers.
Whatever the case, I spend a lot of time thinking about bet-sizing and how to make the most of a range that's probably a bit wider than most 2+2ers.
Last edited by pocketzeroes; 05-18-2017 at 09:01 PM.