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2-5. Turn AA into a bluff? 2-5. Turn AA into a bluff?

01-18-2018 , 07:37 PM
2-5 effective 500.
Villain in the CO. He is a good reg that I’ve seen make some good/lite call downs a number of times. Hero has a TAG image.

CO villain opens to 20, Hero BB AAhd reraise 75. CO calls.
Heads up.
(152) Flop 854ssx
Hero 75, call.
(302) Turn Js
Check check
(302) Riv 2s
Hero checks.

Jamming the turn is reasonable, 350 into 300 is a good size. But I think villain might bet a wide weak range on the turn when we take this line, where we can c/r all in. Not sure.

On the river we could bluff jam, since we could easily have AAsx but against this particular villain (who has made some life calls I’m not sure) any thoughts?


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2-5. Turn AA into a bluff? Quote
01-18-2018 , 07:52 PM
I would have bet bigger on the flop (2/3) on a pretty wet and connected board. Also, I am betting the turn as well for value. Turn isn't a great card but not the worst and may have given him some pair+draws.
2-5. Turn AA into a bluff? Quote
01-18-2018 , 08:02 PM
I’d tank check river, then give up.

Flop – more for value on an 8-high board. 99+ are calling, a very inelastic spot in terms of sizing.

Turn – not the greatest card, but with a good live read I’d lean toward a value bet.
2-5. Turn AA into a bluff? Quote
01-18-2018 , 08:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by samo
I’d tank check river, then give up.

Flop – more for value on an 8-high board. 99+ are calling, a very inelastic spot in terms of sizing.

Turn – not the greatest card, but with a good live read I’d lean toward a value bet.


Interesting... I feel like 1/2 pot c-bet is more standard, I don’t like to vary my bet size with my hand. If I had some bluff for ex I would bet 1/2 pot all day (for your very reason).

As per the turn, he could certainly have pair+draw that he would check back... but maybe we can get value from that on a brick river?


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2-5. Turn AA into a bluff? Quote
01-18-2018 , 08:31 PM
1/2 flop cbet is great for balance playing online and hi stakes, but at live 2/5 90% of guys do not notice those kinds of thing. That flop is so wet that you want to charge the max (maybe overbet if you know your opponent).
2-5. Turn AA into a bluff? Quote
01-18-2018 , 10:36 PM
Bet larger on the flop (90) and jam 335 into 342 on the turn.

When you raise to 15% of effective stacks preflop that should narrow the good regs range to a lot of TT/JJ/QQ type hands and maybe some AK. Suited hands are a relatively small part of his range. There is only one combo of AsKs, 15 other AK combos and 18 combos of TT/JJ/QQ.

As played, its probably a check fold on the river. He may sometimes bluff with the best hand.
2-5. Turn AA into a bluff? Quote
01-18-2018 , 11:55 PM
I think AA has too much showdown value when it checks through to turn it into a bluff. A7s or A6s would be good candidates, if they're in your 3bet range preflop.
2-5. Turn AA into a bluff? Quote
01-19-2018 , 08:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hyperknit
Interesting... I feel like 1/2 pot c-bet is more standard, I don’t like to vary my bet size with my hand. If I had some bluff for ex I would bet 1/2 pot all day (for your very reason).

As per the turn, he could certainly have pair+draw that he would check back... but maybe we can get value from that on a brick river?


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It is a 3-b pot pre, committing 15% of effective stack. This narrows ranges to mid-big pairs and AX high ranked/suited. If it were an open raise to 4bbs, then I would agree a 1/2 PSB is optimal.
2-5. Turn AA into a bluff? Quote
01-19-2018 , 09:04 AM
Likely check give up. Without the read that he has made light call downs frequently I might jam but if he’s calling any KsX and QsX hands we need to just give up and take our showdown value here.


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2-5. Turn AA into a bluff? Quote
01-19-2018 , 09:05 AM
Check river, your hand can and will showdown a winner often enough.
2-5. Turn AA into a bluff? Quote

      
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