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2/5 - Turn 1010 into a river bluff? 2/5 - Turn 1010 into a river bluff?

08-12-2014 , 11:59 PM
Reads: Unknown guy who is old and has that nit "look" to him. Seems like the type to not bluff and seems like he's playing a "make a strong hand, then put lots of money into the pot" type of player.

He open limps with 5 players left to act. Another player limps. SB flats and I make it 35 with 1010. Villain is the only caller.

About 500 effective and flop is A94. I bet 45 into 80. Too small? He flats.

Turn: A94A. I bet 80 into 170. Too small again? He flats again.

River: A94AQ. 330 in the pot and 375 behind. Good spot to bluff? I would play AQ, 99, and probably AK the same way and would be betting large on this river, and 1010 is about the weakest hand in my range here. If bluffing, anyone betting less than all in?
2/5 - Turn 1010 into a river bluff? Quote
08-13-2014 , 12:15 AM
Give up everywhere.
2/5 - Turn 1010 into a river bluff? Quote
08-13-2014 , 12:20 AM
This is probably a textbook nut worst spot to bluff.
2/5 - Turn 1010 into a river bluff? Quote
08-13-2014 , 12:23 AM
I don't think this is a great spot to bluff. Maybe it's just personal preference, but I hate running bluffs before I have a good read on someone.

A lot of nitty guys (if that's what he actually is) like to trap and slowplay. Boats and flushes are definitely in his range. If that's the case, a bluff would just be lighting money on fire. I was just re-reading an Ed Miller/Sklansky book today and one of their "concepts" was not to give action to nitty players. If he called the flop and the turn, he's got something. That something might be a monster depending on just how nitty he is.

What are you trying to get him to fold.....an ace? a small flush? When a nit limp/calls pre, calls the flop, and calls the turn, I tend to shut it down. I would put the absolute bottom of a nit's range on this river at AJ. You might be able to get him to fold that with a shove. I think it's more likely that a nit has a monster than a foldable hand in this spot though.
2/5 - Turn 1010 into a river bluff? Quote
08-13-2014 , 01:37 AM
pre flop and flop played great. I'd check fold turn against a nit. he shouldn't bluff turn too often and Ax, 44, 99 are way too big a portion of his range.

River bluff is spew. If you think he can fold Ax, you'd have to shove all in. But I still think it's spew because we dont really know if he folds Ax here. Do some basic hand reading. A seemingly tight older man called our raise pre flop and our flop and turn bet. We have blockers to AT. He's never fold 99, 44 and his flushes like JTss, QJss and probably not AK. So basically we're trying to get him to fold AQ, AJ here which is may not fold anyways.
2/5 - Turn 1010 into a river bluff? Quote
08-13-2014 , 01:44 AM
c/f flop, as played c/f turn, as played c/f river

you are much better off barreling with stuff like JThh on this board than TT
2/5 - Turn 1010 into a river bluff? Quote
08-13-2014 , 02:16 AM
I hate running bluffs in spots where I'm not sure if people can lay down trips. I think way to risky. Sometimes just give up
2/5 - Turn 1010 into a river bluff? Quote
08-13-2014 , 02:33 AM
This sort of player's limp/call range is roughly small-medium pairs, A2-AJs, 56s+, suited broadways, some off-suit broadways, probably some 79s-J9s as well.

Against this sort of range, a small bet is OK, since he will have some flush-draws and 9x which we can extract value from with a smaller bet size. We also pick-up any dead equity from his missed broadway range, which would have about 25% equity against us.

Betting turn is marginal, since although it reduces his Ax combos by a third, his continuing range here will only be Ax, and flush draws, which he will probably fold a non-zero amount of the time. I'm okay with c/f turn.

As played, on the river the only hands we beat are 9xhh. The rest of his range is trips+, and LLSNL players, even the nittier ones, don't like to fold trips, especially not trip aces.
2/5 - Turn 1010 into a river bluff? Quote
08-13-2014 , 08:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SABR42
Give up everywhere.
pretty much this.

Villain always has Ax+.

Trying to get a villain to fold a range that consists of trips and flushes is basically suicide.
2/5 - Turn 1010 into a river bluff? Quote
08-13-2014 , 09:04 AM
Limp preflop if Villain is a nit limping in EP.

As played, cbet on flop is fine. I would definitely check turn and river though.
2/5 - Turn 1010 into a river bluff? Quote
08-13-2014 , 10:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SABR42
Give up everywhere.
You c/f flop?
2/5 - Turn 1010 into a river bluff? Quote
08-13-2014 , 10:49 AM
Grunch.

Uh... What you are tying to bluff this guy off of? A busted flush draw? or Ax? I think you will have success against the former and not the latter. I don't think it's a good idea to try and bluff this guy off of one ace, let alone two. Seriously though. The turn card is the worse in the deck to barrel. You have a hand the can beat a missed draw. Don't bluff.

I didn't even see that spades go there. Definitely don't bluff.
2/5 - Turn 1010 into a river bluff? Quote
08-13-2014 , 10:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ATsai
Limp preflop if Villain is a nit limping in EP.

As played, cbet on flop is fine. I would definitely check turn and river though.
If we were already heads up I don't mind a limp pre. But not raising pre because a nit limped is losing too much value and is MUBs esp with three limps.

There are 24 combos of JJ+ some of which he'd raise pre a lot. There are 32 combos of AQ+. Even against a range of JJ+, AQ+, we are 40%. There are 48 combos of 22-99, all of which we crush. And I see nits limp in with AJ, KQ, 76s, 86s, 97s, J9s type hands in early position all the time. Even if they don't limp SCs, we are still ahead of their range. They may limp fold those hands a lot but we still need to raise for value and to get it heads up

Last edited by slimshady1999; 08-13-2014 at 11:01 AM.
2/5 - Turn 1010 into a river bluff? Quote
08-13-2014 , 10:57 AM
Yikes
2/5 - Turn 1010 into a river bluff? Quote
08-13-2014 , 03:02 PM
Given the villain's description, he is never folding an ace or a flush. He has like 0 queens (except AQ which is the nuts, and maybe Q9s but that is one hand) in his range so you are basically never getting him to fold a better hand, so bluffing is pretty terrible here.

Also you are pretty much never getting called by worse. There is no way this villain calls 3 streets with just a 9.

Finally, I don't think you need to worry about getting bluffed off the best hand either. If he has a 9 and turns it into a bluff, or a busted wheel draw (very unlikely) that he turns into a bluff, then NH to him but given his description I see him checking back most of his made hands that you beat and the only weird draw that missed is the wheel draw which he is unlikely to have.

Conclusion? Check/fold river.
2/5 - Turn 1010 into a river bluff? Quote
08-13-2014 , 03:06 PM
Bet flop a little bigger, if you had 10s I would c/c flop. Turn is c/f however
2/5 - Turn 1010 into a river bluff? Quote
08-13-2014 , 05:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia
You c/f flop?
b/f flop ...

as played , give up on the turn ...
2/5 - Turn 1010 into a river bluff? Quote
08-13-2014 , 07:14 PM
What are we trying to get V told fold?
2/5 - Turn 1010 into a river bluff? Quote
08-13-2014 , 08:13 PM
I might make it $40-$45 pre with so many limpers.
AP
I like a flop bet, thin but I like it.
Turn c/f is best vs described villain, it's the worst card in the deck to barrel and he would most likely check his flush draws back.
c/f river is best IMO.
2/5 - Turn 1010 into a river bluff? Quote
08-13-2014 , 08:30 PM
I bet the turn because I still sometimes have the best hand (if he has a flush draw or 9-X), the 2nd ace makes it a little less likely he has an ace, and betting could get him to fold JJ.

I considered bluffing river because he can possibly fold AK, AJ, A10, or weak A-X hands. AK is the leak likely of this group. And by the way, I'm aware that this is the absolute weakest part of his range. A flopped set or rivered flush is definitely in his range too. I guess its possible he might call turn with a decent 9-X or JJ but these are smaller parts of his range.

Results: River goes check/check, he has AJ to win.
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08-16-2014 , 11:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by beauvanlaanen
What are we trying to get V told fold?
AJ, A10, A8, A7, A6, JJ, 1010, a medium flush that got there on the river. I strongly believe he folds a great portion of these hands, esp since it would be a slightly more than pot sized river shove.

But maybe he folds some of these weaker hands pre flop, like small suited one gappers or A7-A6.
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