V ($500, CO), 20s young guy, at table for 20 mins, has only played one hand so far where he 3b OTB vs HJ open and checked behind on an A high monotone board, called a turn bet and checked behind river to lose to ATs. Didn’t show. Probably had KK/QQ.

Hero ($450, BTN), similar image to Hero, hasn’t played any hands so far.

Table is very tight/ABC full of young pro-looking guys.


OTTH...

Old limpy guy ($300, probably only fish at table) limps HJ,
V raises to $25 in CO,
H 3bets to $80 OTB realizing V could be positionally aware and iso-ing limper here,
only H calls.

Flop ($170): 982r
V checks, H bets $100, V calls

Turn ($370): Jx
V checks, H ???

How do we proceed in this hand? We just have $270 behind.

I would have sized higher on the flop, say $125-$135.

Turn is interesting. We pick up equity for sure, but not sure if it is better to take that to the river or shove now. V rarely has AA/KK here as given our stack size, I would think he would 4! those pre close to 100% of the time. QQ/JJ are a possibility; just not sure he folds Q's here. Problem is we don't know enough about V to determine what else is in his OOP 3! calling range, so we don't know if AK/AQ are in his defend range on a board like this.

Board is about as good as it will get for us at this point and I think I shove and live with the result.

I can't decide what to do. We picked up equity, which is great. If V will fold QQ, shove, if not, check/decide. We really don't beat anything that calls a shove. However, even if we are behind, we have outs Flip a coin.

Check back and fold to a jam on a brick river.

Check/call

As played I like how the whole hand is played and the thought process behind it.

I jam the turn

Check

Check. I was sort of tempted to ship as it seems sexy now that we picked up an open ended straight draw in addition to our pocket pair but when you really break it down what worse hands are going to call? 88/99 moved ahead of us. Is he going to Hero call us with something like 55 - 77? Also I don't think any better hand is going to fold . Lets take our equity to the river.

This. Complete mystery to me why we would shove the turn. So far three people have wanted to do it and the only reason given has been that maybe he folds QQ. "Let's hope he has one specific overpair and also didn't x/r flop with it and also is folding it to a shove" is not very compelling.

And imo at most 1% of players fold QQ here. It's less than a PSB and QQ has 6 outs even if Hero does have JJJ, KK-AA. If Hero's range is JJ+ and four combos of TT (or four combos of AJ, or of anything worse), then Villain is priced in with QQ.

Yeah. It's pretty safe folding river as well because when you check back turn your hand looks like AK, so he'll just check river expecting to win if he has pairs, and it's extremely unlikely he's unpaired given his line so far. All that betting the turn achieves, other than a tiny amount of equity denial, is valuetowning yourself against jacks/89/sets/QT, any of which he could plausibly have.

Agree on checking turn, fold ui otr. Villain has very few bluffs otr.

I everybody loving this betsize with our range here?

I was 50/50 on the shove and still am not sure. I guess the Q is are you going to want to fold getting over 2-1 on a river shove on a brick? With less than a PSB left, that seems kinda gross too. I mean maybe given it is 3! pot, V will just check the river no matter what comes (unless he has specifically JJ or a bizarro QT).

Would you check AA-QQ here too?

Opponent seems solid. 5x iso'd and called a 3b oop. Called a 60% pot bet oop on 982r for over 20% of the effective stack. Give him a range and ask yourself what is the equity of TT against the portion of that range that jams the river on say an offsuit 4?

Like I said, when you check your hand looks like AK and villain will therefore not do something radical like turn 77 into a bluff. What is it you think villain is going to jam with that TT beats? Can you name a single hand?

AA-QQ I guess I shove, it's not like a fistpump or anything, but now villain can be the one with TT (actually a pretty likely hand for him), plus we now beat hands like JT and (if we have AA/KK) QQ, instead of losing to them.

I definitely would. Check shouldn’t cap our range ott since I’m checking some nutty stuff here too so folding river is easily the best decision w/TT ui.

If I’m betting all the goods ott, TT becomes call from a range pov otr. Still would prolly explofold here live. Not many players are able to exploit us here w/ T9s,87s,67s type hands by shoving river so I’m not overly conserned about getting bluffed.

I get your arguments, but lets range V as best we can here. Young 20's player, raises from CO over 1 limper to a std size so he could be pretty wide, we 3! a bit over 3x, and he flats so MY range for that (given that we started with 90 BB's) is: AK, AQ, QQ some % of the time, JJ, TT, 99-88 some small % of the time. I just don't think this guy flat calls our 3! with AA/KK here, specifically not AA to that sizing (I would click back AA here to Like $185 ish so I can just shove flops).

982 flop and V check/calls. Dont think his range changes that much from the above (maybe he folds out AQ 50% and maybe AK 30%).

Turn Jx982. He checks again. Given that he could still have some AK and AQ in his range and we have equity versus any other hand he realistically holds if we shove (call it 7 outs taking one out for the times he holds QQ vs JJ), shouldn't we GII now instead of giving up the lead and allowing him to bluff every river?

This one is really bugging me.

@Gettingood: You should not check the turn with "nutty stuff." Your opponent's range has great equity on this turn card and he will call a jam almost always unless he has like 77.

@shorn: Why are you full weighting AK in his preflop range? OP doesn't even have 100bb, this is the easiest shove pre ever with AK oop. Also no way you should be zero weighting KK+ here. And wow you have him check/calling almost 20% effective oop with AQ half the time? WTF? And then zero JTs, which believe me no one folds preflop, your range just seems so far off the games that I play.

Because a lot of people dont auto stack off with AK pre to a 3!. I think we have to include it in the range. And your point about KK+ is what I would say to your comment on AK...KK+ IS an auto 4! stack off at 90 blinds so I think they are very unlikely.

So the AQ thing is a bit sketch, I agree but some players will defend their 3! calling range with overs some of the time here (AK moreso). That is why I included it.

Again I just think checking behind overall with 0.7 PSB left and basically folding close to 80% of river cards to a shove by V is just really gross. If there is ANY chance we can get him to fold QQ here, I think I am still willing to jam and live with whatever happens.

Having him play 50% of his AK as flat preflop, x/c flop is madness. If he's weak/tight enough to flat AK preflop, then he's check/folding it on this flop literally every single time. You're ranging him as a calling station, when this is the description:

I range him at literally zero AK/AQ by the turn. I don't think he ever has AK for this preflop line. Maybe AQ. But then OTF, in the (extremely) unlikely event he doesn't just check/fold AQ, he probably shoves it to get rid of AK.

Too many posts on here have these super hypothetical things about how other TAGs play. Do you EVER flat AK or AQ and then x/c flop here?

Ok so in the same vein why on earth do you think he has KK+ in this spot?

I don't? Not sure how you got that impression.

QT is admittedly unlikely. JJ is obviously possible. JTs is possible. Sets are possible, people take weird trappy lines when they flop super well. 89s also possible, if he calls it pre.

Trap? He will probably not have many KK by the turn, maybe 0.5-1 combos, but he can definitely have a couple combos of Aces springing the trap / protecting his oop calls.

Think that's probably giving him too much credit, but certainly not 0.00000%.

Because you said this:

"Also no way you should be zero weighting KK+ here."