V (~$1000) is loose aggressive MAG still in the first 30 minutes or so though so minimal reads. Hero (covers) has been a card rack picking up several AK, AQ, AJ, 99, and raising and showing down T9h probably has a LAG image as most hands aren't going to showdown but I'm actually just getting great starting hands and applying pressure. I'm starting to feel the dynamic of the table not believing that Hero can have a hand every time.

OTTH:
Straddle in MP to $10. 2 limpers, hero raises to $60 UTG+1 with TT. Folds back to V who calls.

Flop (~$140): Q94
V - Checks, Hero bets $50, fairly dry board and I don't mind keeping V wide and playing poker in position. I've been trying to use more 1/3 ish sizings too, was this a bad spot for it? V seems to give a little bit of Hollywood concern before calling. I put him on at least a 9 here, perhaps stronger.

Turn ($240): Q948
V checks, Hero checks behind.

River ($240): Q9486
V bets $75. Given my small flop sizing and turn check, how often should we be continuing here? I still have him on a lot of 9x and Qx. I could raise him off his 9x but what's the point as he's probably never calling. When I use lines like this I expect loose aggressive players to stab at a lot of rivers, which means we should be calling a lot. But when we also have a lot of Qx in his range how often can we fold given this good price?

I think your instinct is correct this is a trivial call. I think he would go bigger on the river with a Queen here often. For this sizing we only need to be right less than 20% of the time. We heavily block the main draw that got there (JT) which might also want to extract more value after missing a check/raise on the turn. I think this hand is too strong to use as a bluff raise because he could conceivably be betting a 9 for value.

Call expecting to be good more like 50% of the time.

As played it is slam dunk call. Not really sure about the downbet vs a lag if he can x/r bluff and own us when he has KJ, KT, JT, T8 type stuff. I'm checking flop a lot.

Yea, this early in the session I didn't feel like I could have a read that was strong enough to justify a fold for this price. Real time at the table it's though to accurately estimate how much of his range is Qx though, especially with the dynamic of me raising a ton pre flop (3x per orbit?).

Good point and I can go either way with some frequency on the flop, I tend to error on the side of betting a hand like TT with one over card though as we are often ahead and get to set our own price and many times buy a free turn. If V is going to x/r flop he can just as easily x/r turn or river. We will have to make the tough decisions eventually and I'd rather not give free cards and confidence along the way.

Are you saying hes going to be calling wider because you are raising a ton so he has more Qx? I need to understand preflop to be able to range him. Straddle from MP does action start MP+1? How do you end up raising from UTG+1 and get V to call. Is he in the BB, and was he one of the limpers?

Rooms have different rules for straddles and non utg/ button straddles are weird so best to explain this in the OP in the future.

I believe he's wider a in general vs Hero than if player to my right would have opened because of how many hands Hero has been opening pre. I don't mean this to imply more or less Qx although Qx hits a limp calling range generally well. Sorry, I didn't give V a position, he was in SB and limped the straddle. Yes, in this room after an MP straddle, action starts with MP+1. V limped the straddle from the SB then called Hero's raise. Because of the straddle Hero was relatively late to act pre flop in UTG+1 but still had position on V.

What’s Villains preflop range for a limp—->call? Also what is your raising range here preflop?

It certainly looks like an easy call but, with the benefit of time to think about it...

You're calling hoping V has 9X presumably? I mean V hardly bluffs like this unless he's specifically targeting your Ace-high. So what 9X does V limp/call OOP preflop AND feel confident value betting the river with or feel the need to block bet the river?

I feel like J9s and weaker that's not made 2-pair doesn't really want to block bet for fear of getting raised and yet can't really expect much value so should just check/decide river.

On the other hand why does villain limp call K9 or A9 preflop? They're terrible hands unless suited and still not great played so passively OOP. Also isn't V supposed to be LAG? WTF is he doing playing A9/K9 passively preflop? Then we're supposed to believe he continues this passivity postflop while facing very weak betting from hero? It doesn't make sense to me. I don't believe he has many combos of 9X here.

Thinking the other way he has far more QX in my opinion. This is partly because people play more Broadway hands than 9X hands and partly because a LAG villain is surely more likely to play passively OOP with a hand like QJ (that has decent pair value and connectivity) rather than something like A9 K9 J9 or 97s which really don't have much pair value postflop and only limited drawing value. A9 K9 97s would prefer to have initiative and the opportunity to bluff.

Him Hollywooding looking concerned about calling such a tiny flop bet is also suspicious. Clearly your image sucks and you just bet really weakly on a dry board and yet he seems to want to encourage you to keep betting all your air by the way he calls your flop bet. Why?

I guess he could just be trying to keep you betting small because he has weak 9X but usually if someone is acting it's because they're pretending their hand strength is the opposite of whatever they actually have. If he wanted you to slow down he'd act strong on his call I would have thought. When he acts weak it's because he's hoping to induce continued bluffing.

I expect he has QX+ here, figures you for Ace-high or a weak pocket pair and thinks $75 is the absolute max he can get out of you. That or he thinks he might induce a raise he's only too happy to call.

Still, it's a very small bet relative to pot and he's an unknown player. Therefore I'd be tempted to call in this spot but mostly not because I think I'm going to win all that often but because I want to see if my read of this guy is accurate. That could pay dividends later in this game against a relatively deep stacked and active player. Surely that's worth a few $$$ extra EV on our calling decision here?

Against these particular limpers in this situation I'm probably raising AJs+, 99+, AQo+. The first limper can have any pair, any broadway cards, or suited connectors, perhaps a limped monster but I'll find out those hands when I raise. The second limper is V and has a similar range along with a lot of Ax, offsuit connectors, suited one gaps, etc. His range changes a ton IMO when he Hollywood check calls flop. With a real draw like JT he may lead, check raise, or check / snap.

I wouldn't give him any worse than Q10o I expect Q9s to raise flop and I don't think hes playing Q8s or worse even given your loose image. The fact that he's LAG also cuts into some of those Qx becauase we don't expect him to limp call AQ or KQ if hes laggy. So really hes got 18 combos Q10 and QJ if you want to be generous. You can also give him 8 combos of JTo for value if you want. Can you find 6 combos of bluffs or 9x that he does this with? A9s and T9s alone is 5 combos. If he ever plays KJ or KT this way and decides to bluff river its already a break even call. Not even counting the possibility that he could be playing T9o or A9o.

While opening up his limp range does add in some weaker Qx, it also adds in all this other junk like KTo or T9o which may conceivably get to this point and bluff or value bet and be behind you. So I don't think that fact considerably sways this more towards a fold.

I'm going to assume you called and lost, but remember you are getting such great odds you only need to be right 1 in 5 times here. I find it very hard to believe you don't win 20% of the time calling this bet.

I feel violated. I'm fairly certain you climbed into my head and wrote this from my own perspective. You've successfully highlighted how strongly I weighted his range to Qx. My gut clearly told me to fold as a result but given the price, our line, and other dynamics it just felt super exploitable and I agreed seeing the exact hand may be worth at least a portion of the call even if it was Qx. Those 15 BBs on the river can certainly add up quickly over a session. Made me contemplate how trivial (or not) this spot was after the session.

This all seems reasonable, which is part of the reason I did find a call. I do believe this is mostly a call. The reason for the post is more to see if there's enough "meta" here to tip the scales to a fold. My hand looks pretty weak as played and this guy will definitely try to get some value with 9x or probably even some 55, 66 or other one pair hands against my weak line and frequent opens. The whole scenario just fit so well into Qx I wanted to explore if we can make this fold at some frequency.

See I think the meta here tips it more towards a call if anything. If he is really playing back at you lighter and thinks you are FOS then as you say hes going to be more likely to try to value bet lighter or bluff here. Your hand is actually pretty strong for this line because you have all your Ace high and whiffs that you went for a one and done on this dry flop.

Plus there is always a little bit of the live spaz factor you have to throw in that I'm never folding here.

So i ran this hand through a solver and cbet sizing needs to be 75% PSB like always. It never bets 1/3. Also river is a call.

Ironically, the limper should be donking the 8 turn>60% of the time because it is so much better for his range.

Thanks, how does the solver handle sizing? Is that 3/4 always for these ranges and this board or is it always as in always? Have you ever seen a case where 1/3 is suggested?

Yea, I can see both sides of the coin. You're probably right, there are much better spots to look for exploitable play than this. 30 mins in is too early to try to tighten ranges this much. You have to be super sure you're right to consider folding. And there's more than enough 9x and spaz to justify a call.

The sizing is specific to your flop range, his range and the board texture. I used the ranges you gave me.

You have a huge range advantage preflop and OTF so I’m assuming that’s why it went so big.

1/3 sizing is reserved for wider range cbets.

If this board was A22r it would suggest 1/3

I've never used these solvers but I do think betting 1/3rd pot on flop is an error. You ought to bet bigger or not bet at all.

When you bet flop with a pocket pair between top pair and middle pair a lot of hands will have decent equity against you.

Middle pair and an over (or just two overs) have around 20% equity.

Add a bdfd and they have 23%

Add a backdoor gutshot and the overs plus BDFDs have 27% equity.

Add in the fact that your small sizing may induce bluff raises or bluff bets on later streets.

Add in the fact you have no idea what over cards you have to fear on turn/river. This combined with the obvious threat of opponent having top pair and you know you can't bet multiple streets with your tweener pocket pair.

If you bet flop really small AND you don't bet again then your opponent is nearly getting direct odds to draw against you with almost any hand he'd even consider calling your flop bet with. If he had air he may be encouraged to bluff when you're weak. If he has a strong hand he knows you can't take much heat so will often opt to milk you with small bets on later streets. It's basically impossible for him to make a significant mistake in this situation.

Now obviously you're betting this flop with a range and maybe you utilise the 1/3rd pot size with your entire betting range. Does that make this play with TT any better? Not really - it puts him off bluff raising you and he can't get away with just using small bets with his value hands without losing value vs your strong hands but he still gets to call your flop bet a ton.

But 1/3rd is probably a poor sizing for all your other hands that you might want to bet.

If you have TPTK+ are you really happy to collect just a 1/3rd pot bet from weaker top pair, second pairs and random floats?

If you are just c-betting air in an attempt to take it down on a dry board are you confident 1/3rd pot is getting enough folds for the price you're paying? Would a bigger size be more efficient?

DooDoo, what solver are you using and how much did it cost? Do you find it helpful?

Small cbets are for dry boards. This board is wet so sizing up should be better.

Once this turn hits I’m already thinking about turning my hand into a 3 street bluff. We block JT, and if we can leverage big enough and he didn’t c/r the flop we can pot turn and but bet on a brick Riv

Agreed, this and JJ are our best bluff candidates on this board.

You don’t want to turn hands with showdown value into bluffs or you will be way overbluffing. Any Tx or Jx without a pair would be a bluff candidate before this hand.

GTO+. It was only 80 bucks. I just bought it last week and I love it. I think Ive spent more time running SIMs this past week then playing. It can get addicting.

Strong post, thanks.

Never fold. Raise is also an option.