Nitting it up and raising the button with 65cc should not occur in the same hand. We flopped a gutter and we can credibly rep the K. We also have zero showdown value. If you're not cbetting this flop you shouldn't be raising this pre (which is fine imo, lots of players including myself rarely raise suited connectors this low pre).

25 value combos:

AA:6
AK:12
KK: 3
88: 3
44:1

We get 12.5 bluffs if we bet pot but we only have 320 left so 320/372 = 86% so we get 10.75 bluffs in theory.

Board pairing makes bluffing worse here since population overcalls on runouts like these with Kx.

I might even argue calling ranges are static OTR, meaning all Kx calls and all missed FDs fold. I’d bet small to fold out spade draws since all Kx most likely call.

River I bet 100.

Just read results:

Guy is 100% lieing about folding Kx with a bad kicker. Let’s assume he is somewhat reasonable and only limp calls suited Kings (obviously this is a terrible strategy but let’s play along).

K is on the board, we have two bad kickers in our hand so we block K6 and K5.

Board is K8424

So let’s see which Kxs hands he can have like he claimed:
Can’t have any combos because the King is spade.
Okay next suit:
K2 nope that ships turn with 2 pair.
K3 okay 1
K4 nope 4 on the board
K5 okay 2
K6 okay 3
K7 okay 4

4 combos of KX

Let’s go to clubs:
K2 nope that’s 2 pair that ships turn
K3 okay 1
K4 nope that 2 pair on flop
K5 nope we have 5
K6 nope we have 6
K7 okay 2

2 combos of KX

Lets go diamonds:

K2 nope
K3 okay 1
K4 nope
K5 okay 2
K6 okay 3
K7 okay 4

4 combos of KX

Conclusion: 10 combos of Kxs vs 30+ combos of draws. Yeah I’m gonna go out on a limb and say he is full of ****

You’re always bluff catching vs a triple barrel so it’s implied.

yeah this guy is really bad at poker so i think jamming the river is an awesome play here but i think vs other opponents we can tailor a better sizing and not be committed to a jam with 6 high, while still getting value off the stronger parts of our range

this isn't a great flop to make this play on tho especially with this sizing, but i'm thinking about hands a limp call from the CO usually makes it to the river with, and the 4 is usually a terrible bluff card if villain doesn't fold kings

I'd be careful with the next opponent to size in the flush draws OTT if you want to go for a river bluff on whiffed hearts

WP tho