So it's 6am on a Thursday morning and we're playing 5-handed at 2/5 NL. Everyone looks tired and people are talking about leaving soon. Most people are playing sort of weak/tight passive. Lots of limping and not a lot of raising. Everyone just looks dead inside and ready to pack up.

Hero, on the other hand, is wide awake and ready to exploit the sh*t out of everyone. I'm a mid 20s WG and I play a pretty LAG style.

$500 effective, 5-handed
CO limps $5
Hero raises $25 BTN with 65cc
BB calls $25
CO calls $25

Flop ($70, 3ways) Ks 8h 4s

BB checks
CO checks
Hero bets $35
BB folds
CO calls $35

Turn ($133) Ks 8h 4s 2d

CO checks
Hero bets $120
CO calls $120

River ($372) Ks 8h 4s 2d 4h

CO checks
Hero ??? (We have $320 behind)

Is this a good spot to bluff jam river? Thoughts on all streets appreciated.

I think you have to go for it. V's line is pretty weak.

Time to punt!!!!

But that should have been decided before we bet close to pot on turn. Which is the one sizing I don't like. Would either bet 1/2 pot or over pot. Over pot creates more fold equity on turn. Smaller sizing creates larger river bluff, maximizing fold equity on river.

$125-$150ish

Any bet otr is getting called by Kx about always after calling ott, esp w/river changing nothing

So just target higher than 6x missed spades that can’t call. Betting less might entice Axss to hero/spitecall you..

Ott is fine to set up river jam

Ap river is one of the worst to bluff, he could even hero off 8x and you block his folding range (65).

If you want to bluff id just bet small to target a lot of his FDs that have to fold vs rivet bet, dont really see him folding Kx often when the 4 pairs the board and spades bust w/ you having a LAG image

If villain knows you at all, you need to check and give up. Ive obviously never played with you, but Ive read enough of your HHs to have a good read. If I was villain, there is no hand that I would call your turn bet with that I would now fold this river.

PS...I dont mind your play up to the river at all, although I probably bet a bit more on the flop and a bit less on the turn.

Your line and sizings are good and yes you should stuff river. Blocking 65 is moot. Unblocking spades is much more important. This is a great combo to take this line with, its going to be one of your best 3 barrel combos.

As for all the "choose smaller sizing to fold flush draws". Our 3 barrel range wants to stuff this river. We also should have some fold equity from KQ-T with a stuff (villains overcall/overcall/overfold flop/turn/river respectively), and if not then we are printing with our value range, which is heavy here.

Check/give up spade combos, but this is a well played hand if you stuffed imo.

Yes, in a vacuum this is our best bluffing hand and it's great that we unblock spades but if those are the vast majority of hands we want to fold out, then a smaller bet that looks basically committing is almost as effective as one that's all-in.

I hardly expect someone to ever fold Kx to 6b's shove otr. We've both been following his thread for quite a while.

My main point for not jamming river is this though vs smaller bet (1/2 psb - 2/3 psb). If we were a tight player or a "normal" player who doesn't have OP's image (cold 4b AJo, call a 5b shove with 7 high for example) it's definitely better to just shove river but with 6b's image he has like 1% FE vs Kx so no point in torching more money if he has Kx. players can find a fold here with Kx occasionally and a lot of 8x/99 but not here with OP's image.

this. betting small is stupid. i like flop a little bigger and turn more natural tho.

im all in

Hero has absolutely no fold equity against Kx. We don't have enough behind. Many V's would call a $320 river bet at 1-2 with top pair, let alone at 2-5. If V was worried about his kicker problems then he would have folded the turn.

We can definitely get away with going smaller targeting his draws only. Something like a "same bet" on the river will look credible enough to fold out A high.

I could go either way on the turn, as played shove if you are new to the table.

Everyone thinks the new player that is aggro is most likely FOS. They have good reason too. If you use Bayes theorem then you realize that if the new player (who is 25 years old with a cocky aura) has only played a few hands and he is taking a polarized line, then the probability that he is an aggrotard on a bluff is way higher than him actually being nutted.


If you really wanted to get a bluff through then you would be patient and build an image, while at the same time gathering reads on which opponents are prime targets and which ones are not. This would take 1-2 hours minimum, which tards have no patience for (and they end up paying the price).

Vs hand really looks like KQ KJ, or A3 A5 of spades.
None of which you beat.

I would bet 285 on the river. And yes, considering the table dynamics, bluffing is the right play

sizing seems awful to me, checking turn is way way better while sizing up the flop, gives much more flexibility, cheaper bluffs, more value when we have it

50 otf

size down the turn, that spot should be a little less than 50% of the pot

same reasons as above

now we are completely flexible on the river and can size depending on the runout on the river, instead of just being committed when we whiff

there is actually too much money put in the pot so far, if we size up the flop and size down the turn we get a lot more value and flexibility, we can then bluff missed FDs OTR for a tidy profit

can't say as played, folding Kx is impossible in villains shoes, the fact that the flush missed is ok but we sized out the flush draws OTT

sizing seems incongruous mathematically to me, as played I don't know, maybe if he folds a K but he shouldn't have flush draws ever here or he made a large number of mistakes up to this point

but then again limp/call from the CO 5 handed is such a bad play and c/c turn for almost pot that it's possible he just chased his FD or he has a middle pair like 77 or even just an 8 so i guess it's a go on shoving the river, we should be able to get it back anyway being on his direct left as long as he doesn't hit n run ya :0

Results:

Thanks for the advice everyone. So I ended up shoving the river because I felt like his range should be pretty weak here when he takes this line, and I have plenty of KQ+ in my range that would barrel 3 streets here. Whilst I was a bit concerned about overbluffing in this spot, I felt that unblocking the flush draws and having no showdown value (eg. I'd lose to a hand like JTss here) is more reason to pick this as a bluffing candidate. I also felt like a smaller bet, such as $150, seems pretty inconsistent. I'd always jam the full $320 in if I was value betting here, so I wanted to pick a sizing that looks credible.

Here's what happened:

As I said, I'm never folding any hand to you on this river if I called your turn bet. There's zero chance Im folding Kx. Youre very lucky that this guy stinks and/or doesnt know you.

Or he was lying...

Unless he tank folded, it's more likely he had a busted draw and was just bsing.

I think its very reasonable to believe that villain folded a weak King. Our value range is KQ+, so hes just bluff catching.

Anyone care to explain why cbetting this flop is a good idea? Don’t see why we should be bluffing into multiple opponents with a gutter and no bdfd’s...

Cause we're button and we raised pre and have 6 high bud

I'm not saying it's unreasonable.

I think if the guy was following 6b's thread he'd snap call, in less than a heartbeat.

If the guy hardly knows 6b, the bluff jam is ok and mostly standard.

We don't really know how well the guy knows OP, so I guess I was pretty biased in saying that this should be a small bet to target his FDs (since I know OP's tendencies and if I had Kx here I'd snap call and he'd have 0% FE).

the board is dry so its good to bluff.

name a better bluff.

All of our spade draws and maybe some QsJx and Asxx combos. I think it’s an okay combo to cbet with heads up, but since we’re multiway my default here would be to nit it up.