Played this hand last night and felt really awkward. Wonder what people say

2/5 at Bellagio, been at the table for ~40min. There's an aggro at the table who bluffs a ton - raising in MP/LP light, bombing turn/river light, and 3b a lot.

V ($800) - MAWG in baseball cap, somewhat active, seemingly straightforward, not adapting to Aggro - for a couple of times he bets into Aggro only to get raised, then folds.

H ($600) - Young girl in party outfit. Won a few pots with the standard raise-in-LP-and-cbet. No showdown yet.

OTTH: Aggro is OTB and will almost raise ATC.

H limps UTG with AJ with the intention to l/rr Aggro's open. V opens UTG+2 to 20, Aggro calls, H calls. Three-way

Flop ($60) J84

H checks to let Aggro bet. V bets 110 (thoughts on his overbet? His bet sizing has been normal till this point). Aggro folds, H calls

Turn ($280) 3

H leads 160, V calls

River ($600) 6

H checks, V insta-shoves 310 EFF

wtf are you doing ott?

Protection think he still has draws in his range

What draws?

diamonds, oesd?

Id call

If you're going to call the turn, then you're pretty much pot committed to call the river. Over half your stack is in the pot on the turn. IMO, you need to make a decision on the turn: either shove or fold. If your read is that V is on a draw, then make him pay for it by shoving the turn.

Call now

This title is misleading, it should say Hero takes weird line....

OP, if you are afraid of draws why not raise the flop?

Until I get a read on a player that they can make big moves with draws or air, I'm folding this flop. V has AA-JJ about 90% of the time. The only thing V could possibly have here that we beat is AdKd, but that would make his flop sizing so weird and bad I have a hard time believing it. I think AA-QQ is more likely.

As played, you called the flop overbet, donked the turn, then got shoved on the river. I guess you have to go with your gut b/c we put ourselves into such a horrible spot there is no good play.

Think JJ-AA jams turn?

By the turn, I think it rules out JJ, but AA-QQ is still very likely. The over bet followed by caution followed by aggression just screams over pair to me. On the flop, he wants to charge draws and overbets. On the turn, the large (keep in mind V's don't often see bets in ratios to the pot but in absolute terms) donk bet gave him pause that you have a set. The safe river card followed by the check gives him confidence he is ahead.

The only other hand he possibly has is a busted draw (but his flop play is so bizzarre for that) and maybe AJ.

Looks like QQ+. I think you have to fold to this V's overbet on the flop. After an overbet like this OTF, V is almost never slowing down on future streets. Are you ready to stack off 120 BBs with TPTK against a straightforward, passive player?

You should open PF with AJs. Assuming the aggro has you covered, l/rr vs. aggro with AJs is only going to cause problems postflop. Also, an open here would give you a better idea of v's range.

So most people see the flop overbet as strength?

I see it as LLSNL "omg can't let people draw" type of strength. There are certainly players who will overbet semibluff, but they're not usually straightforward-seeming MAWGs. Given pf and flop, he simply doesn't have very many combos of draws in his range. (He has 16 combos of JJ-AA.)

Fold flop.

The flop over bet could very well be JQ or JK trying to "protect" i would prob snap river and not care if we lose to an op

I think it starts before the flop. This is a very easy raise or fold situation pre-flop; usually fold.

If you have some reason to believe he's raising 9dTd and not JJ+ why are you not raising pre-flop?

Think I c/f every street as played except pre. His play seems very consistent with an overpair. Only hands you are beating are like 9Tdd,56dd,etc. but would he overbet flop with those hands? I would think it unlikely...

Out of curiosity did you plan on calling the turn if he shoved? Not really a fan of that turn bet unless it's to get villain to induce which doesn't seem like the case here. Also you should raise pre, like others said l/r could put you in really weird spots post if villain flats, I'd rather l/r with worse tbh, or nutted hands (if that's the approach we're going for). I'm always just folding flop unless I have good reason to think V is mostly spazzing out here. If I was villain I would play overpair the same, minus the flop bet sizing, kinda hard to fold though once you make that turn bet.

As some of you pointed out, I was indeed indecisive about V's range, resulting in inconsistent play on different streets. If I believe he's on a draw, gii ott; if I think he might have an OP, just fold flop.

Before I read the spoiler, I was thinking oversized flop bet was strongly indicative of a hand like 9Tdd....see villains take this line the most with extremely strong drawing hands IMO.