Hero tag asian $515
Villian middle aged white who raises 50% of hands pre, bluffs alot, fires multiple barrels, totally unpredictable but obv terrible. He just lost a decent pot bluffing a total station the last hand. There's not much method or rhyme to his madness. Sometimes he will bet huge with strong hands, and huge with bluffs. Ive seen him blast $250 into a $100 pot on a cbet with total air. Trying to make sense of his play is something i gave up on. Covers hero

2-3-5
Utg fish limp
Utg1 fish limp
Utg2 limp
Hero A7ss limp HJ

Btn limp
Sb limp
Villian bb raises to $15
Everybody calls.

Flop $100
Ac 6s 2h
Villian leads $50
Utg fish calls (guy literally calls with any piece, any gutshot, doesnt matter)
Folds to hero who calls

I think its reasonable that i have the best hand here often, especially based on the fact that villian raised so small preflop, it is unlikely he has AT+. He could obv have A9, A8, A6, A2, 66, 22, but he could also have A5-A3 or a bluff since its such a dry flop and he is....well a maniac.

Turn $250
Ac 6s 2h 9h
Villian bets $200
Utg fish folds
Hero has $450 back.
Fold or ship it?

I think if i had AT+ its clearly a shove, although if i had AT+ i may have raised pre to start with, which would likely have changed the dynamics of this hand. If i had A5-A3 its probably a fold on the turn. A7 feels very close.

If i ship, im risking $450 to win $450 so i have to be good 50% or more, although if he has A5-A3 or some kind of draw and he calls my shove while hes still behind that would be good, and i would actually be getting a better price: $450 to win $700 ($450+$250).

Also, is there anyway to stove different parts of his continuing range and compile it together to analyse the hand?

What i mean is...
For the first part, if he folds to my shove or calls and is ahead, im risking $450 to win $450, so i need to be good at least 50% against his range to shove...

if we give him A2-A9 and all sets, two pairs, and a few bluff combos, were about 40% against his range, so not quite there...

But, for the second part, if he calls my shove and is behind, im risking $450 to win $700, so i get a little extra $ when im ahead and he calls behind, which should skew the calculations, but im not sure how to apply it correctly.

No time to respond to the first post because I'm late for stuff but I think if I understand your question it should be pretty easy:

Just take any range 1, run stove on it, count the number of combos in that range, and find out your equity.

Then take range two, run stove on it, count the number of combos in that range, and find out your equity.

Then take equity of range 1 * ( combos in range 1 / total combos ) + equity in range two * ( combos in range 2 / total combos ) = overall equity.

Thanks man, you have been super helpful today i thought it might be something like that where i would have to break down the two different parts of his range and then calculate it out manually. Ill do that and see what i come up with.

Fold pf, fold flop. On the flop, you beat exactly 3 combos of aces. The villain is leading out into the universe and got a called on a dry board. Odds are high that one of them can beat TPNK. Which is why you don't play ace-crap. There was a pokerstars study years ago that showed that A7s was one of the top 10 hands that people lose the most money with. This hand shows why.

Just fold pick a better spot he knows u have an ace

Fold Axs in a limped pot pre on the HJ? Unless CO or BTN is likely to raise behind me I'm fine limping pre, but would prefer to raise myself. I'm not afraid of limp/calling IP vs. a maniacs raising range. I'm curious as to the pokerstars study that showed A7s was a big loser. I'm guessing it's because it crosses the threshold where people start misplaying it for 1-pair value instead of drawing to nuttier hands. It's got to be profitable as long as we recognize those spots and don't fall into the trap.

This hand is where better reads on the maniac are needed. So he bet $250 into a $100 pot with air before. Does he do this every hand, or did he do it once in an hour? The last thing you want to do is overadjust to one hand you've seen him play like a nut. If his range is really ATC here then this is clearly a call, but I suspect it's much stronger than that. For V to have an ATC range he must be getting insanely out of line on every hand by now, and I assume that would be in your description. By the turn you don't beat enough to call this off. If he does show a bluff just take note and wait for a better spot or for his range to be better defined.

Also, this isn't a terrible spot for a limp/re-raise semi-bluff preflop. There's a lot of dead money out there, you're probably ahead of his raising range, you've got position of the maniac calls, and you can make it big enough to chase out all the other limpers.

Assuming you liked your hand pre cause of flush possibility. But you had to limp. Now it's very difficult to know where you're at. "V can have anything" but that's the point - playing small kickers post with no read is a long term leak.
Good luck bud.

Actually confused myself a bit, was going to type up a huge post with all the hand combos and ev calcs done but realized i was thinking about it wrong and was asking the wrong question.

When i risk $450 on the turn jam, we should just automatically assume he is all in as well, for ev calculation purposes. So it is actually 450 to win 700 (250+450) which means i need to be good at least 39% in order to profitably jam, assuming he always calls.

Assuming villian's range is:
A9-A2 including all two pairs and sets, and two semibluff combos of 87hh and 54hh
Stove says i have 40.8% equity.

Obviously this is a huge assumption to not include any AT+ in his range, but note i also did not include any cold bluff combos in his range either. And obv for the times he is stone cold bluffing, we simply pick up $450 for free.

Still Not saying its right to shove here, because im obv assuming he has as many bluff combos as he doesnt have AT+, which is actually ALOT.
AK-AT
8x4 =32 combos

Venice, while i appreciate the work you do as a mod, some of your strategy posts are clearly wrong.
-Fold pre? For $10 more in a massive family pot?
-3 combos of aces?
I count
8 A5
8 A4
8 A3
For a total of 24 Ax combos i am beating, and thats not even including any bluffs combos like 87hh 54hh or total spazz combos

I will agree this is an extremely marginal spot, but thats what strategy posting for advice is for. All the ez spots arent necessary to discuss

I hope you do agree that if we had AT+ this is a clear fist pump call. Where it gets murky is A7-A8, which is why i made this post.

I actually thought about backraising pre after he made it $15, but didnt want to open myself up to a 4bet bluff, since backraises are so "lol wtf do u rep?"

Although clearly if i do go for the backraise here to say $100 and only he calls, i cant imagine a scenario where all the $$$ doesnt go in the middle at that point.

Ex:
Hero backraises to $100
Only villian calls
Flop $~250
A62r
V check
Hero check

Turn $~250
A629
V bets $100-150
Hero call

River
V jams
Hero has to call

If V has PFR sizing tells with this many limpers, I'm fine with felting any ace to this guy.

Also one last thing, for all you math oriented guys that actually do these calculations in your head in game or at least practice it away from the table

Assume everything i said above in post 9 to be true:

If we have 40% equity vs his range, then we have 40% equity in an $1,150 pot by the river, meaning we get back $460 (1150*.4) in the long run. Since the cost of jamming the turn is $450, the net ev of shoving the turn is +$10 assuming he ALWAYS calls.

Now since we know hes a bluffer, that means he will fold some % of time, which is even better for us.

In fact you can actually calculate breakeven points for your shoves.
Holdint everything else the same, Lets assume my equity was 20% instead Ie, say i was bluff shoving the turn with a flush draw like JThh,

.25*1150= $230
Meaning when your turn shove gets called you can expect to get back $230. But since your initial cost is $450, you are actually losing $220 if villian were to call 100% of the time.

Since you lose $220 when villian calls, but you win $450 when villian folds, you are getting about 2:1 on your bluff, meaning you need villian to fold at least ~33% of the time or more for your semibluff to be profitable.

Hm i dont know about any Ace, i think when villian raises to only $15 after the whole world limps it caps him at A9. But felting A2 here is probably way too loose and -ev long term.

In fact im still not even sure felting A7 here was correct, because it relies on the massive assumption that villian never has AT or better in his range. And While i feel it is extremely unlikely he has AT+ since he only raised to $15 after the entire field limped, its never impossible...

I just went and stoved it,
Adding full combos of AT drops our equity to 36.3%, which means now we are losing if he calls 100% of the time.

And for the hell of it if he has full AK-AT, we are at an abysmall 29% if he calls 100% of the time.

But thats why this spot was so interesting, because since he was such a maniac its entirely possible for him to be bluffing here, and using the math i posted above, even if we had a worse than abysmall 20% equity, which is frankly impossible, we only need him to be stone bluffing at least 33% of the time to breakeven

In fact screw it im curious now and wanna do the math for fun.

Assume villians range goes up to AK now:
(this is a WORST case scenario)
Stove says we have 29% equity when called.
.29(1150)= $333.50 is what we net back on the river
Since our cost is $450:
333.5 - 450 = -116.5
We lose $116.5 in the long run assuming villian always calls
Yet we win $450 (dead pot money) in the long run assuming villian always folds.
3.86:1
1/4.86 = 20.58%

Meaning if villian is STONE bluffing here 20% of the time, we are breaking even on our turn shove. Obv if hes stone bluffing more often than 1 out of 4 times here than we start to make a profit when we shove turn.

Booyah math rules

I did misspeak about combos. There's 76 combos of Ax you lose to.

And yeah, I'll be happy to fold A7s in a family pot pf. I won't get paid off on the flush or trips, can't make a straight and will be stuck with TPNK most of the time. It will be very rare to flop 2 pair. There are lots of other hands I'd much rather have in this situation that gives me plenty of hands to play and are much more likely to get paid off or give me equity on the flop.

Limping in this limped pot with A7ss is totally fine and just standard.

Calling the small pre-flop raise in the family pot is the same.

Calling this flop all day facing a 1/2 PSB and with top pair + back door flush draw vs. maniac and calling station who is calling.

This is your read. So you have the nuts here a lot.

You're going to have a better sense of specific dynamics at the table, but generally, with this read, you should definitely not fold to this villain, so just hold on tight.

And this is NOT REMOTELY anything like a "fold or ship" situation. WTF. If you ship on him, you prevent him from bluffing more on the river. Ship is terrible.

Call turn and let him bluff all rivers with his remaining ~$250 if he's bluffing.

Call river.

Try not to lose.

Is he maniacal enough to bluff into multiple callers? Would he keep betting with worse Ax?

Seems like a clear "yes" to both questions, given read.

He could have total air. He could have TT-KK for "value."

He's a complete maniac, per the below, so hold on tight, you have the nuts.

Well barreling one person is different than barreling multiple callers when the turn card doesn't change anything. The description also doesn't say anything about how bad he overplays hands. If the answer to those questions is yes then obv gii.

Yeah, I understand what you're saying.. and you really do have to be at the table to understand those dynamics perfectly. However, given the 4 quotes I highlighted above, I would think the answer is a definite yes. Those are the same descriptions I would give of villains I'm happy snapping off here.

Call/call

Why are you thinking about shoving when most of your profit comes from him bluffing???

Sent from my Nexus 5 using 2+2 Forums

if your read about him being a maniac is accurate, this is a pretty easy call/call, especially with the preflop sizing tell. raising is significantly worse than calling.

also pre is super standard and fine im not sure why thats even a discussion. id rather backraise with like ATo or 66 and call a shove if he's really that crazy

+1 to Venice's thoughts on playing the hand at all. Ace-garbage is just trouble, even sooted. Also:

Until the turn, you play just like the guys you term "fish". Just sayin'... This play is not consistent with the terse read you gave on yourself, "TAG". Limp/calling sooted ace-garbage from MP then calling behind otf (when you feel your ahead) is not TAG play, it's loose-weak/passive.

I mean, if sooted ace-garbage suddenly looks sexy because you've folded crap for an orbit and a half and decide it's time to play, why not take advantage of the "squeezer vig" that good TAG's cultivate, and raise pre? Punish the limpers and juice the pot in case you do strike gold. Also, you can fold out CO and BTN and steal (or highjack, get it?) position for the rest of the hand.

OTF, if you feel V is c-betting allot of times with air or a weak pair (and he would have to be a real maniac to lead into a large field on an ace-high board with this range), and the "Fish" is calling behind with likely smaller made hand or draw, wouldn't it be more profitable to squeeze on the flop? To punish the fish for playing garbage and put the heat on V? It could induce a spazz from V and you get what you want right here. Or V could call and give you free turn card by checking the turn. Or V could decide to "pick a better spot" and fold to your unbridled aggression, letting you pick up a happy little pot. Flatting here gives the fish better odds to chase and tells V exactly where you're at, which is exactly where you put the "fish": with a weak made hand or a draw.

As played to the turn , if you still feel you have the best hand allot of the time, why shove? He'll probably barrel the river anyway (so you'll still get value), or just shut down altogether, if you're ahead. If you're behind, it's unlikely he folds, and you're just value-towning yourself.

This response drew out allot of cliches, here's one more (one which I never really got or subscribed to, but for some reason makes sense here): Never go broke in a limped pot.

I am "meh" on preflop. The question you should be asking yourself before calling should be "To what end?" Or rather what is your plan? Are we hoping to bink the ace and go to the felt with this guy? If so, then roll with it and embrace the variance. (And remember that maniacs do pick up hands sometimes....)
If were two pair/trips/flush mining, then we let it go.

What we should *never* do here is shove the turn against the villain as described. Ever.
Like never ever.

Pre-flop, we're gonna be 7-way holding Axs with position on 6 (mostly unskilled) villains, and we need to put $10 more into what will be a flop pot of $105 and have basically no risk of getting raised off the hand pre-flop. Getting basically 9.5:1 direct on a call vs. a spaz who is oop and multi-way, I'd probably call with a naked shoe. Like one sneaker. Prefer Asics, but would call Nike, too.

I don't know the precise plan, because shoes rarely make very strong hands, but I'm pretty sure it's going to be a profitable spot, no?

I'm obviously not going to blindly stack off with top pair, but I'm pretty sure we can navigate a lot of situations here.