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/ Tough Spot @ Wynn / Tough Spot @ Wynn

09-04-2013 , 08:13 PM
Preflop is your mistake. You are setting up a terrible SPR for your hand...by raising to $50, if you get two callers (which is probably about the average result), there's $150 in there and more than $1000 effective. That's an SPR of around 6.

With an SPR of 6, you can't:

1. Bluff, because you don't have enough to triple barrel, or even make a threatening double barrel.

2. Profitably commit with top pair. What if you get one of the best possible flops for your hand, J75. Can you call a check/raise all in? You're just setting yourself up for a tough spot.

Fold pre.
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09-04-2013 , 09:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sooothin
Yeah, I definitely think it's profitable to call such a small raise on the turn. I can hardly find bluffs in his range after I flat the turn though. With the river card changing nothing, how can he be bluffing?
I think you're mistake is you see his turn raise as "small"...not sure why as it's pretty obvious he is trying to build a pot and keep you in the hand

QT is not likely in his turn raising range either. However, whether it is or not I think it's a mistake for us to call turn raise because we are behind QT and villain likely won't bet or ch/call river if the board pairs (pretty common sense unless he is a non believing/overvaluing fish) He may check call a "reasonable" bet if a 9 hits. Then you have to think about the right sizing on a 9 river to get a crying call from QT and whether the sizing makes up for your implied odds needed to continue past the turn.

So there really is no reason to continue past the turn. If you think FDs are in his range, they are not or they make up a tiny portion of villain's range and whether they do or not, he isn't putting any more money if the river bricks. So, this brings up the issue that if you are sooo sure villain is semi bluffing with FD, a call is the worst line....In that case 3betting/gii on the turn is better than calling.

But 3betting in this spot is spew because he can't continue with anything else that we beat. Literally every other hand in villain's range is ahead of us. Even a chop with QJ has added equity with straight outs.

Obviously reads and player's perceived image by you will dictate alot of this, but I think once villain calls the flop bet, it is -EV to continue putting any more money into the pot.
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09-04-2013 , 09:45 PM
Most importantly, we have limited to pretty much "0" information on what this player's tendencies are, honestly, it sounds like it could be a straight bluff or the nuts (player dependent). If i knew more anout the player, it could make the difference between instamuck or instafold. This is a "tough spot". I think it starts with being new at a table, not having a feel for the players, then raising to $50 with J9 (which we've all done something similar) . Then you flop trips 5th kicker and put in a standard c-bet, which to utg1 could look like a bluff. With that being said, I've definitely put myself in "tough spots" like this before, and instead of playing the hand over and over in my head trying to figure out the right play. I go over how I got myself into a situation where I was SO in the dark, and try to minimize those occurrences. But I'm sure "we" will end up in the same spot, the goal for me is to prevent it from being common.
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09-04-2013 , 09:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by endodocdc
I think you're mistake is you see his turn raise as "small"...not sure why as it's pretty obvious he is trying to build a pot and keep you in the hand

QT is not likely in his turn raising range either. However, whether it is or not I think it's a mistake for us to call turn raise because we are behind QT and villain likely won't bet or ch/call river if the board pairs (pretty common sense unless he is a non believing/overvaluing fish) He may check call a "reasonable" bet if a 9 hits. Then you have to think about the right sizing on a 9 river to get a crying call from QT and whether the sizing makes up for your implied odds needed to continue past the turn.

So there really is no reason to continue past the turn. If you think FDs are in his range, they are not or they make up a tiny portion of villain's range and whether they do or not, he isn't putting any more money if the river bricks. So, this brings up the issue that if you are sooo sure villain is semi bluffing with FD, a call is the worst line....In that case 3betting/gii on the turn is better than calling.

But 3betting in this spot is spew because he can't continue with anything else that we beat. Literally every other hand in villain's range is ahead of us. Even a chop with QJ has added equity with straight outs.

Obviously reads and player's perceived image by you will dictate alot of this, but I think once villain calls the flop bet, it is -EV to continue putting any more money into the pot.
1. Board is already paired
2. It's $280 more dollars into $1,088 is why I say "small."
3. I'm getting almost 4:1 on a call, to improve and potential stack another ~$700
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09-04-2013 , 09:56 PM
Also, IMO, anyone flatting a straddle OOP, is going to be a fish most of the time. My intention in raising pre was to isolate the straddle limper.
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09-04-2013 , 10:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sooothin
1. Board is already paired
2. It's $280 more dollars into $1,088 is why I say "small."
3. I'm getting almost 4:1 on a call, to improve and potential stack another ~$700
1. I realize that. What I meant was if the river pairs the K or the A. it just freezes all action and QT becomes a bluff catcher to your bet
2. His turn raise puts >50% of his stack in the middle
3. Yes your pot odds are close to 4:1...but what card is going to make you improve? On this board with your hand, you don't have good visibility. What outs are clean, what outs are chop outs and most importantly what outs are dirty?
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09-04-2013 , 10:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BenT07891
Preflop is your mistake. You are setting up a terrible SPR for your hand...by raising to $50, if you get two callers (which is probably about the average result), there's $150 in there and more than $1000 effective. That's an SPR of around 6.
Interesting to bring in the SPR perspective, but SPR is >8 on the flop. Perhaps with the pot being 3-way sometimes we can accelerate the speed at which stacks go in, but we also have position and the ability to de-escalate.
Hero's intent was clearly to iso and play with an SPR >10 which does give room to bluff/get away from one pair.

This is a difficult hand to analyse postflop. What can villain call the flop with? QT, trip J's, Kx, flush draws. I am tempted to say check it back and call up to a PSB on the river... but I realize that's results-oriented.
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09-05-2013 , 01:14 AM
Considering how this hand played out, I think you are ahead a decent percentage of the time. I would get it in on the turn. $700 to win $3000 pot. I jam turn but have to call river.
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09-05-2013 , 02:00 AM
There are tons of different opinions here, hard to say what's best.
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09-05-2013 , 02:10 AM
Fold on the turn. Honestly I don't think you beat any of his turn check-raising range. In a vacuum spot this is 100% fold as I'd expect our boat outs to have $0 impled value on the river besides a 9. Still that means AJ crushes us so that's reverse implied if anything. If I was villain I'd be check raising all double barrels on this board with all my value range (QT,AJ, fishy limped pre-called KJ) with the chance of you having any additional equity with the clubs out there and straight draw possibility.

Fold turn >>>>>> anything.

For what it's worth pre and flop is fine.
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09-05-2013 , 02:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 11t
This is good advice.
No he's right. Any other play than folding turn is just terrible.
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09-05-2013 , 07:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sooothin
I bet $220 on the turn, and flatted a small raise. In retrospect I probably should have decided to go with it or fold it on the turn.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RobFarha
Fold turn. Have kings full next time
Quote:
Originally Posted by AintNoLimit
Pretty simple turn fold IMO.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pay4Myschool
Pretty sure I fold the turn, still fairly nice laydown
Quote:
Originally Posted by spooner90
No he's right. Any other play than folding turn is just terrible.
You're really beating nothing. Don't get stuck in absolute strength (trips) vs. relative strength (V pretty much never has worse unless he's bat****).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aleksei
Yeah at first I said we fold turn, then amended to account for the fact villain has QT in his range and will probably pay off a boat otr, so we have a decent call based on implieds.
This is horrible thinking. We have outs to beat QT but will never get paid off unless we get the 9. JJK-A-K, JJK-A-A, JJK-A-J, is V's QT (or us for that matter on the first two boards) ever putting more $ in? We'll go check - check on the first two and win the pot but no additional money. We'll get V to c/f on the 3rd board. So when we call ott we're pretty much mining for a 9. I didn't do the math, sometimes you do have the odds to mine for a 3- or 4- outer, but it's doesn't occur that often.
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09-05-2013 , 08:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eldiesel
You're really beating nothing. Don't get stuck in absolute strength (trips) vs. relative strength (V pretty much never has worse unless he's bat****).



This is horrible thinking. We have outs to beat QT but will never get paid off unless we get the 9. JJK-A-K, JJK-A-A, JJK-A-J, is V's QT (or us for that matter on the first two boards) ever putting more $ in? We'll go check - check on the first two and win the pot but no additional money. We'll get V to c/f on the 3rd board. So when we call ott we're pretty much mining for a 9. I didn't do the math, sometimes you do have the odds to mine for a 3- or 4- outer, but it's doesn't occur that often.
Don't forget KJ/AJ can be in his range also. So that's reverse implied odds on a 3 outer if anyone decided to read my tl;dr post before
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09-05-2013 , 09:22 AM
Turn is a super easy fold
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09-05-2013 , 12:40 PM
Hmmm. Sometimes I wish you couldn't see other responses before you reply for the first time to a hand in these threads. It would make later discussion a lot easier.

If you read through the entire thread, it's easy to see that ideas trend, then someone enters with a new demanding thought.
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09-05-2013 , 12:48 PM
Not sure if that's in reference to me but I have only skimmed this thread and don't know if v's hand was revealed or w/e.

But a click ott is a nutted hand like always and while we are getting decent odds we could be totally dead here.

Not sure of your game flow / dynamic or reads on villain but KJ/AK are easily in early pos. limp/calling ranges in straddled pots.

Yes we have blockers and yes we flopped hard with a speculative squeeze but turn click makes it a pretty easy decision imo.
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09-05-2013 , 12:54 PM
Grunch. I'd play it very similarly. I'm folding on the river. Considering all the responses I need to min CR the turn and jam river a lot more vs competent players.

Last edited by Mr Spyutastic; 09-05-2013 at 01:04 PM.
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09-05-2013 , 01:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia
Not sure if that's in reference to me but I have only skimmed this thread and don't know if v's hand was revealed or w/e.

But a click ott is a nutted hand like always and while we are getting decent odds we could be totally dead here.

Not sure of your game flow / dynamic or reads on villain but KJ/AK are easily in early pos. limp/calling ranges in straddled pots.

Yes we have blockers and yes we flopped hard with a speculative squeeze but turn click makes it a pretty easy decision imo.
Sorry, not directed at anyone. Just an observation.
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09-05-2013 , 02:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Spyutastic
Grunch. I'd play it very similarly. I'm folding on the river. Considering all the responses I need to min CR the turn and jam river a lot more vs competent players.
vs. an Asian I'm flatting turn and fist pump snapping river ldo
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09-05-2013 , 02:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia
vs. an Asian I'm flatting turn and fist pump snapping river ldo
Oh yeah, I always forget that's why I stopped doing that stuff with air.
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09-05-2013 , 02:30 PM
Ha, I don't think calling the turn min chr ia a big mistake in the grand scheme of things fwiw
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09-05-2013 , 02:43 PM
Well if I call it's with the intention to snap river jam when I boat up so calling probably has some nasty RIOs if he's not putting stacks in w/o a boat.
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09-05-2013 , 02:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 11t
Ha, I don't think calling the turn min chr ia a big mistake in the grand scheme of things fwiw
QT min c/r is a little less likely than the nutted combos imo, and if he has air like seriously god bless him.

And how much money is QT putting in when this board pairs otr? We have three clean outs vs QT and I use clean in the sense meaning we will still make money from QT.

So like with non nut boat draw vs a range leaning towards nutted I think fold is pretty clear.

And I mean if we are bluff catching he should be leading river like always after his turn action and we are somewhat ok with our hand on 3 rivers.

I may have called turn in game but I would have noted it was a mistake afterward.
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09-05-2013 , 05:55 PM
I have never seen a player check raise turn oop and NOT follow through with a river bet...not a single time!
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09-05-2013 , 05:57 PM
Yeah calling this turn is probably awful actually if we are planning on folding river
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