Quote:
Originally Posted by sooothin
Yeah, I definitely think it's profitable to call such a small raise on the turn. I can hardly find bluffs in his range after I flat the turn though. With the river card changing nothing, how can he be bluffing?
I think you're mistake is you see his turn raise as "small"...not sure why as it's pretty obvious he is trying to build a pot and keep you in the hand
QT is not likely in his turn raising range either. However, whether it is or not I think it's a mistake for us to call turn raise because we are behind QT and villain likely won't bet or ch/call river if the board pairs (pretty common sense unless he is a non believing/overvaluing fish) He may check call a "reasonable" bet if a 9 hits. Then you have to think about the right sizing on a 9 river to get a crying call from QT and whether the sizing makes up for your implied odds needed to continue past the turn.
So there really is no reason to continue past the turn. If you think FDs are in his range, they are not or they make up a tiny portion of villain's range and whether they do or not, he isn't putting any more money if the river bricks. So, this brings up the issue that if you are sooo sure villain is semi bluffing with FD, a call is the worst line....In that case 3betting/gii on the turn is better than calling.
But 3betting in this spot is spew because he can't continue with anything else that we beat. Literally every other hand in villain's range is ahead of us. Even a chop with QJ has added equity with straight outs.
Obviously reads and player's perceived image by you will dictate alot of this, but I think once villain calls the flop bet, it is -EV to continue putting any more money into the pot.