Hero is one of three super deep stacks at a late night game; iirc I was between 500-700bb at this particular juncture. V probably perceives me as a non-******ed LAG, but it's always a bit hard for me to tell. I open (had been opening) pretty liberally, but check frequently, even c/f'ing flops from time to time.

Villain is 28-32 guy and seems quite sane; he's not a total reg, or if he is, he's appeared in the last month or so. He seems to not know any of the regs particularly well, so let's just assume he's a random guy who's about 150bb deep.

H has AdKc in late MP or HJ. After a few limpers, including V from seat 5 (H-seat 8), H makes it $30-35 to go and the flop comes down five or six ways.

Flop: (~$150) AcKdQc

Checks to Hero, who leads for $125. Roughly one bajillion folds later, V calls.

Turn: (~$400) 8c

V leads for $200, having a bit less than $400 behind. Hero: ? If you call, please explain what you do on non-obvious rivers.

I'm not like, completely dumbfounded here, and I'm just fine with my decision, but y'awls sum smert peepels; whatcha think?

Thanks

Turn seems like a trivial flat? Clearly we have 4 outs to a boat and 9 to nut flush. Have direct odds to never fold. In the case where he has JTcc we're still getting exactly even money (still have 11 outs). Vs QQ we have all 13 outs. I am not folding here.

But I don't see what we're ever accomplishing with a raise here, how is he folding better vs us?

His range is actually a little interesting for me here, seems like QQ a fair amount of the time, maybe AK and AQ some, too? Hard to think he calls flop and bets turn with AJ or worse?

He just has enough combos of JT, QQ, AK, AQ that I don't think we can fold vs 2 combos total of AA and KK.

It would help to know what we think V would do pre with big hands. That's a huge part of the puzzle here. Would he really limp/call AA, KK?

Tons of outs, so an easy call. Get it in if you hit, and fold to a big bet if you miss.

Rumor - I assume that with a bloated pot, he never flats pre with a huge pair into a bunch of players. AK, AQ are there, as is J10; tough to imagine him folding AJ and AT pre with all the odds...but on the flop?

Small point - vs. J10cc we have 10 outs, as 9c is no good.

Re: raising, what if V has 56cc?

V is never folding a flush here, IMO. Also kind of hard to think they called without a flush that didn't also have a straight draw

Is V ever paying off the river with any of his range if we hit any of our outs?

Sure. If an A or a K hits, he's going to have a hard time getting away from a flush. Could also still get a call from a flush if the fourth flush card comes, esp. if V views you as LAGgy.

Shove...he can't have the nuts and we can. What can he really bet with confidence since we hold the Kc? We only need the bluff to work 40% of the time if we never hit our outs and we will win the hand 25% of the time against flushes, 30% against straights. We get paid off every time we hit our outs.

7 flush outs
4 boat outs

11 * 2 = 22%

Missing the river then being stuck with 20bb left for future hands sucks, so shoving is best

You really think he's folding a flush to a LAG for those odds? Shoving seems bad to me.

AIDS = shoving turn. Villain has alot of txcc/jxcc here

Sent from my SPH-D710 using 2+2 Forums

Lol at this...easiest flat on turn ever

Huh?

Pretty much what I thought too from a range construction basis

You're nuts if you think villain is folding a flush to a turn shove. Maybe if he's extremely weak-tight and has like 45cc, but even then, he's probably calling. Easy call turn. Fold river if you miss and he shoves, get it in if you hit.

This isn't useful. How about some constructive comments backed by logic?

How about explaining what you do on the river? The hands not over if you flat the turn.

Thanks.

Flat turn - V checks river blank; explain how he doesn't play 100% of his range perfectly?

Mostly this, but I think this is actually a fold here.

Villains bet looks like value to me. He cannot have [QQ+ , KQ], so that leaves made straights and flushes.

If we assume villain never folds when we hit, we can flat the turn to win a total of $1200 on the river ($400+$200+$200+$400). $1200:$200 is 18%. Since we need 22% it seems good.

But sometimes villain folds the river so we're not really getting good enough IO here to flat, IMO.

In fact, I think villain might be good enough to fold if the flush hits the river and hero shoves.

I don't think villain folds any value hand here on the turn so shoving is bad, even if it guarantees we maximize when we hit.

Interesting. Does he expect hero to bluff?

I hope you checked behind.

Yeah, I mean I never expect villain to fold to a shove here. I didn't realize that the point of a shove is to utilize FE if we have any in spots like these, so thanks for that.

Fold or shove spot ldo, and folding is better

I don't see how a few people suggest flatting here. That's like the nut bad

Sent from my SCH-I545 using 2+2 Forums

Some of you guys cannot do simple math. Against a range of flushes we have 24% equity. This means we need roughly 3:1 to make the call break even assuming we make $0 on the river. The guy is betting $200 into $400 so we need to call $200 to win $600. That's 3:1. Are you guys ******ed?

Shoving this is so bad. No standard live opponent is ever folding a flush here and probably not a straight, either, which still has us beat. It's such a standard call and fold river to a big bet unimproved. It's really a simple hand that some of you fools have blown out of proportion.

I hope this is a joke. $200 into $400 is 2:1. Think of it this way, we're calling $200 to win $600, so putting aside implied odds we need to be right 33% of the time. We're not getting the direct odds we need to call. Doesn't mean a call is bad because of potential implied odds, but no one else has gotten the simple math wrong.

Ummmm no try again 3-1 we need 25%...

Also I would also argue that we are really calling 200 to win 1k as I think he stacks off on a lot of rivers.

You're right, my bad. Correcting math is like correcting grammar, you always get it wrong...

Constructive...OK Are we shoving for value? Let me know what worse hands call us here...cuz I don't see any. Are we shoving as a bluff? Let me know what better hands fold here...cuz I don't see any.

Let's be clear we are mostly behind villain's range. I am folding to most river bets unimproved without a better read than hero provides.

When we shove we do so for one of two reasons:

1) Because we are bluffing and a shove provides us some degree of fold equity. That doesn't seem to apply here as I don't think villain is c/c flop and leading turn with a hand he is going to fold.

2) Because we feel the villain has a second best hand and we want to get value on the turn before a potential scare card comes or somehow the board texture changes such that villain's second best hand becomes much worse in an absolute sense. That doesn't seem likely either.

Therefore, shoving really doesn't accomplish a whole lot IMO.