The villains in each hand here are exactly the same type; loose passive, high VPIP, will arrive at the river with a bunch of garbage. Hero is viewed as LAG, but I'm not convinced villain is thinking on that level.

#1:

8 handed, $1,500 effective

Hero AhKh in CO 2/5 live

MP limps, Hero raises to $25, MP calls

Flop ($57) KcQd6d
MP checks, Hero bets $40, MP calls

Turn ($137) 2c
MP checks, Hero bets $100, MP calls

River ($337) As
MP checks, Hero bets $250, MP raises to $800, Hero?

#2:

8 handed, $1,000 effective

Hero AsJc in HJ 2/5 live

Hero raises to $15, SB calls

Flop ($35) Jh8h6s
MP checks, Hero bets $25, MP calls

Turn ($85) Ac
MP checks, Hero bets $65, MP calls

River ($215) 7s
MP checks, Hero bets $150, MP raises to $500, Hero?

I fold H1 and call H2.

You should probably just fold both of them because so many players at these limits will never bluff raise the river. It's a spot that's sensitive to detailed knowledge of the villains, though. The big question in both cases is whether they might be value-raising worse aces up. I'd just fold to loose-passive types without a specific read not to, though.

The reason I call hand 2 is because it's a smaller sizing and there are worse hands I beat that villain could be raising for value. A8 for instance.

+1

I think on H2 it's A7 or it's nothing, I don't think he check-calls turn on a wet board like that with aces up. If I'm honest I think H is just losing both hands.

Hand 1 feels more like rivered broadway. Is V just calling down 2 pair or sets when flop has a FD and turn has 2 FDs? That’s a specific V dependent read that is not typical.

Only hands that make sense that we beat are like AQcc and A2dd. but that means he limped AQs from MP, which is possible but not standard

Hands like Ax cc/dd that run into TP would typically call OTR

Against LP’s I don’t hate exploitatively folding both here.
Calling H2 makes way more sense than H1 though.
He has J-10 in H1 almost always.

H2 has more natural bluff raises OTR. there are a lot of Tx and 9x hands that should be raising.

AJ is basically the same here as AA

If this is true, (and I'm not saying it isn't), shouldn't we call hand 1 then?

If we're giving V in hand 2 Tx and 9x as bluffs, then why can't the V in hand 1 have ATdd, AJdd, T9dd, J9dd. Furthermore, why couldn't he have Kxdd?

If he plays all combos of JT, and slow plays all combos of 66, that's 19 combos we lose to. We need ~28% to call. So we have to beat 8 hands.

I just named 4 specific combos we could beat. A2dd, A6cc also fit. That's 6. Add just K9dd, and KTdd and we have enough equity to make the call here.

If he has any other Kxdd combos, or if we can discount JT/66 at all then it gets even better.

I'm still going with fold because I don't see enough check/raise river bluffs in my games to ever make a call like this. But the math seems to be against it.

EDIT: We can also be chopping sometimes too.

Truth to these comments.

Folded both so will never know.

Agree that H2 is closer.

I don't.

T9 + 66 + 88 + JJ = 25 combos.
We also lose to 95hh, 45hh.

I guess we can discount some of that. What do we want to go with then?

20 combos??

Again we need 28% to call. So we have to beat 8 hands.

A6hh, A7hh fit I suppose. A8 is a possibility too. But you'd have to discount those somewhat because he didn't raise turn on such a draw-heavy board. I don't agree that he has many Tx or 9x hands here unless they are exactly T7hh or 97hh. I don't see how any other Tx or 9x makes sense. That would mean he called twice with only 3 clean outs for a non-nut 4-liner gutshot with the plan of c/r bluffing the river on a coordinated Ace-high board if he missed.

That doesn't sound like the V that was described in the OP

I'm having a much harder time coming up with 8 hands that we beat in hand 2 than in hand 1

I still think they're both folds, but Hand 1 seems like the closer decision.

honestly, when i wrote my response you quoted, i was thinking probably a little more in depth than a loose passive player would. conversely, someone who bluff raises H2 with Tx and 9x OTR probably is bluff raising some % of the time on H1 with ATdd, AJdd, T9dd, J9dd OTF

against a loose/passive and coupled with a river raise, both hands are probably folds because loose passives don't bluff a lot and population tendencies of river raises at these steaks leans value heavy by a wide margin

if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck...

:grunch:

My guess before I look at the responses is a lot of posters will be talking about combos and ranges and balances and all that.

I'll simply say that you have two Low Limit Loose Passive Fish Check Raising your substantial river bets. I'll be able to sleep well at night the 1 time in 20 that they are inadvertently turning their hands into bluffs here.