BB is an unknown who's been playing relatively solid for an hour and hasn't gotten to showdown yet. I generally lean toward 3-betting flop and or raising turn vs a lot of regs, however elect to play it this way vs this guy since I'm not sure he thinks we can have bluffs. Whats your play OTR as played?


We're 7 handed. BB has $700 to start the hand and Hero covers.

Hero Jh9h in MP 2/5 live

Hero raises to $15, BB calls

Flop ($32) Jd9d4h
BB checks, Hero bets $20, BB raises to $70, Hero calls

Turn ($172) 5h
SB bets $150, Hero calls

River ($472) Qc
SB bets $480 ALL IN, Hero??

Looks like a fold me. I think you can call vs certain players that you have info on. Looks an awful lot like a set of 44. Some aggressive players will take this line with QTdd though as well (others even wider). I don't think we have sufficient info here to call. Note that hands like KTdd and T8dd both got there as well.

To zeroth order, this is LOLlowstakes NLHE and this spot is typically underbluffed. I would throw away a hand like AJ in a heartbeat.

Key to whether or not we can call is whether or not we can reasonably put any three-barrel-bluffs in the villain's range. All of the flush draws have missed, and we unblock diamonds.

Simply by betsizing considerations, I think we can rule out hands like QdXd (including QdTd) which are no longer bluffs but can legitmately bet for thin value on the river. Why would the villain bet a polarizing amount, all-in for a bit more than the pot, if they had rivered top pair?

It does look like the villain sized their bets to get it in on the river, which is another argument for a polarized range, and evidence of the villain being a thinking player at least potentially capable of bluffing.

We block JJ and 99, but there is one combo of each still out there.

Bottom line: if we think the villain can be bluffing here one time in three, we should call. But I come back to the fact that villain is unknown; my population read is that this spot is underbluffed. So I think it is a fold. with the information we have.

I'm calling river, we can beat some value like J4s and Qxdd. And yes, I do think some people will shove Qxdd because they don't want to have a tough decision when they check or bet small and get jammed on.

I know balance etc but turn is such a great shove spot

im shipping turn

he's running out of natural bluffs so he might have to go into weak made hands territory a bit to come up with enough bluff combos
vs some people you can't fold
I'd say it might be pretty close regardless. certainly not a terrible call..

If he’s under 30 I call, if he looks like a gambler I call, if he looks like a typical 50 year old white or black guy I fold...probably...still might call. It’s crazy exploitative to fold so we have to have a good feel here for who V is.

I just ship the turn.

As played, it's really a soul-read. Has he been this aggressive before? Are people folding to him? How does he see you?

The river sucks because now QJ, QT and straights beat you. With the info in the OP, I fold.

Why? From which worse combos are we trying to get calls? What better combos are we trying to fold out? To which combos that we currently beat are we trying to deny equity?

Why is shoving better than the rope-a-dope line that OP took?

The board now has two flush draws, two straight draws (although we aren't really worried about the low one) and our two pair is vulnerable. AJ, KJ, QJ, JT can all beat us -- as can a lot of other cards on the river.

I'm shoving to make him pay to see the river.

Hero called a near pot sized bet on the turn. What is his plan on the river if he gets shoved on? You have to expect him to shove a good percentage of the time. Hero only improves to a FH about 9% of the time. In other words, top 2 on that board isn't strong enough to rope a dope. Way too many cards can either cause Hero to lose, or to kill his action.

Hero should either shove or fold the turn. To me, if you fold here, you really should just fold to the checkraise on the flop. And that's way too nitty and MUBSy. Sure, V has a set of 4s a lot here, but on the flop, V has a lot of draws as well. If you think you're ahead on the flop, the turn card doesn't change anything.

So shoving the turn IMO is the best play. You're only losing to 5 combos, and a lot of Vs would 3-bet JJ a good percentage of the time, and some may 3-bet 99 some percentage of the time.

A lot of Vs will call this shove with their combo draw and NFD, so Hero is getting a lot of value.

We likely have the best hand, but it is vulnerable and a lot of river cards can come screw us up.

Vs. some of the regs I'm happy to 3-bet flop or raise turn vs their J4s and 5d4d which they are never folding, plus they will show up with AJ time to time.

Ended up folding here. This was a middle aged white guy, buttoned shirt, very conservative look. Just feel that a silly portion of his range is 44 here. Sigh...

I think V's line is sets, top 2, and combo draws/nfd. If it's a set we're screwed, but shoving vs the other hands is good so he can pay to hit or get freerolled.