**Title should not be top two-should be top and bottom two**

effective stacks 1100

Villain is Asian, late 20s/early 30s with a wide PF raising range. I've seen him raise IP with hands as weak as 24s after a couple of limpers. Post flop, he can be sticky OTF and fights for pots and is capable of raising with draws. He is also capable of making big laydowns and value betting thin. Other than being too loose PF, I would classify him as a competent player. He just won a big pot before this hand if that means anything.

Hero is Asian, late 30s, that looks like he's in his mid twenties. I have been playing somewhat tight and been up and down the whole session. I also won a big pot a few hands ago when I hit my flush OTR. Since that hand, I gave a few chips away after having to bet fold a few strong hands OTR. Villain probably thinks I'm a solid player that doesn't get out of line.

folds to Villain in CO who limps. Hero comes from a bathroom break and buys the button and raises to 30 in the BB with AQ. Villain calls.

Pot ~60
Flop is AKQ
Hero bets 40. Villain calls.

Pot ~140
Turn is 2
Hero bets 90, Villain raises to 255, Hero calls.

Pot ~650
River is 8
Hero checks, Villain bets 225, Hero?

Villain is representing JT OTT since it's highly unlikely that he has a set in his range given that he just limp called PF but would he do this with A2 or a pair and a FD, knowing that this flop should smack my range? If he did do this with two pair such as A2 or A8, would he bet the river? Would he turn a missed draw into a bluff by representing the flush? Could he be turning a two pair hand into a bluff? Am I leveling myself? Should I call?

Preflop: Looks good.

Flop: Reading your hand makes me think of that almost banal, but true, maxim: Big hand, big pot, small hand, small pot. The first thing you need to recognize, especially when you're this deep, is that you actually have a small hand. Yes that's right, top and bottom on THIS board IS a small hand. If the pot gets big you are probably ****ed.

Anyways, back to the hand. Your cbet and sizing are fine. There are a lot of turn cards that could make your life hell, so I don't mind betting out here.

Turn: Generally speaking, on a blank turn, with your small hand, this is gonna be a bet/fold or a check/call situation, doing the former against more passive players you can trust and the latter against more aggressive players. Against this guy, I don't wanna bet/fold, and I don't want this pot getting out of control with a bet/call, so I'm checking the turn and hoping he takes the bait with a lesser hand/draw.

River: As played, I don't know what to do. This is a horrible spot, but I'm calling this guy getting those river odds.

IMO, the turn was misplayed.

I definitely contemplated check calling against this guy. I actually mini tanked before betting out OTT because I wasn't sure of the right play. The thing that swayed me into betting is that I was sure he would bet turn and river, putting me to the test. I thought he might even be capable of representing a flush and/or even shoving the river which would make my life hell. This is definitely something to think about though.

Call me crazy but I'm checking the flop.

1) Controls the pot oop against an aggro opponent on a dangerous board
2)Under reps our hand which I think will give us the best chance at value.

We are most likely not getting three streets of value out of AT or A4s. By checking the flop we have a better shot of at least two streets of value from his value range or giving him the opportunity to pitch out bluffs for us to pick off.

That's not crazy at all. In this spot, we gotta check somewhere imo between the flop and the turn. Which street it's better to check I don't know. I can see a decent argument for both. I just strongly think that IF we do bet the flop, we gotta check a blank turn vs this guy.

BTW, the fact that we have the Q also adds somewhat to the flop check argument, since if the flop gets checked through a blank club turn isn't as problematic for us because #1, With the A, K, and Q accounted for, villain is significantly less likely to have a FD and #2, if a blank club hits the turn we will have the nut flush draw. So a club hitting the turn is not that big of a deal. Now obv if a J or T hits the turn this hand becomes a potential nightmare to play well, but at least a J/T aren't the worst cards in the world.

I kinda lead towards betting the flop only cuz it decreases the chance we get owned by total air. Like if we check and he checks behind or he bets his air, this hand can become very hard to play if a K/J/T hits. I kinda wanna minimize being in that spot, but there's a decent chance that my thinking here is NOT a correct way to approach this spot. I mean the idea that we wanna bet the flop to fold his air sounds pretty stupid.

One thing to think about is, if this guy is that tough to play against, I would not raise this hand preflop oop. We're better off keeping the pot micro small vs this guy imo.

I would call. Unlikely JT because he probably would've opened that pre. Don't believe he has clubs because based on description he would've raised flop. Despite being viewed as a solid tight player, hero's cbets are still liable to be raised since cbetting is such a standard move. However, he does not raise this cbet which leads me to believe he has a piece of this board and isn't drawing.

OTT he could've picked up a spade draw to go with his pair, or whatever he called flop with. Thus, he wants to raise because he feels that after a tight solid guy double barrels his lone pair isn't good enough to win and wants to give himself another way to do so besides hitting his flush. (Although I agree with ILOVEPOKER929 in that turn is a c/c spot)

Once you call his raise but then check, due to past b/folding he could believe you are susceptible to folding otr when pressured. Given the weak check he could certainly believe you'll fold now. So he could have a missed draw looking to take it. Or a pair/weaker 2 pair here as you said he is capable of betting for thin value, or at least what he thinks is thin value. Either way I think we need to call. I'm not happy about it as that board is scary, but a call nonetheless.

To be honest, I just don't think there is anything wrong here.

We have top and bottom pair and need to be betting this flop like 100% of the time.

come turn, there are a ton of lesser hands and draws that can call our turn bet so I have zero problem betting the turn and I think our sizing is good. Its just that we are up against a competent villain who raised us on turn. His range on turn should be AX, tricky/sticky XY hands and of course JT .

INteresting street here is the river. That $225 is 100% a value bet. I do not think this is a value bet bluff because when Hero calls the turn our hand is face up as a big Ace.

So, if this is not a value bet bluff what the hell should we do?

Imo, there are some times in poker where our villains are competent, they make great plays, they make great bets, and we have to pay them off.

I think this is one of those times.

We have too much equity to fold or turn our hand into a bluff by c/r shoving with a line that doesn't make much sense... So river is a call.

Overall, I think the hand is played fine. Imo the only point for debate is whether or not we shove turn and I would be in the "not" category. I think the betting and sizing is fine.

sigh-shrug-call on river and if V has JT or hit his flush then well played sir.

Or put another way. If we start leveling ourselves here with checking back to pot control and/or folding this river then we are losing value longterm and become very exploitable. I think we played the hand fine and have too much equity to fold.

These two statements are contradictory, if you weren't being hyperbolic about his value bet. Are we ever good close to 25% of the time if this competent Villain truly believes that he is best on the river?


I agree with the psychological and meta reasons for not playing the hand too weakly. However, in a mathematical sense, shouldn't a decision to call or fold be based on our best analysis at the time as to the EV of our various option, not whether we "have too much equity to fold"?

Why?

This sounds like level 1 thinking. Top and bottom pair is largely irrelevant on this board. We're still ahead of all the aces we were ahead of and still behind AK.

What is your plan after betting flop? Going for three streets of value? Against what hands?

grunch: call

i like preflop and flop. have no clue on turn and river. if villain is competent and betting only 225 on river he has to be expecting at least a call. we could even range him pretty narrow (flushes, sets, straights, 2 pair) but i think he's still giving us the odds to call... even thought we're basically hoping for a worse 2 pair... maybe even just a pair of aces. i don't think i can lay this down. i think i call and expect to see a flush. crappy spot. not sure what you could do differently... maybe either bet more on turn (to not show weakness and give worse odds to draws) or check it (to keep the pot smaller).

Why are we trying to pot control this board? The guy is super aggro pre and limped the CO. Were beat by 1 hand and one hand only. And honestly I can't think of a hand he has that he open limps the CO with if he's as aggro as u say. Probably need to change your read on him.

Like others I think you did fine but have to call the obvious value bet on the river, the setup and dynamics say he has KQ or other lesser hands at least some of the time.

Until turn is fine, now bet strong as you did and fold. U are smoked here and dontlevel yourself into some kind of he could makamove with yadi yadi. Ur done.

On river i still fold to this great price. He figures that is all you will pay since flush hit board and he most certainly isnt trying to fold you out. Could he do thi with KQ----well i guess anyone can do anything at any time, however i expect KQ to move on the flop rather than wait for a terrible turn to raise it.

I should ban myself from posting at 3am right after I finish grinding 14hrs.

My head was full of mud, so disregard my horrible post.

If we are 100% sure this is not a value bet bluff then we can and should fold river.

If we thought that V could be value bet bluffing 25%-ish of the time then we should make the call.

His hand is JT or flush an overwhelming large percentage of the time here so we can make a puke fold on this river

After thinking about this for a while, from your description of the villain, I am leaning towards him having A,2 sooted.
He has something he wants to play, but limp/calls. Hits a piece on the flop. So he calls your bet thinking you might have just a pp or one pair from the flop. He is discounting youv not having an ace since he has one, and one on the board.
Ott he hits his two pair and raises you. (Possible trips if he had 2,2)
I say this because this is when he becomes aggressive.

River, since you called a big bet ott, he thinks he is value betting you.

I think this is an ok call.
He may have hit the flush otr, but given the action ott, I am leaning more towards a lower two pair, or trip duces.

It's a tough call, but given the action and villains description, I think one you can make.


Sent from my SCH-I535 using 2+2 Forums

A small hand on this board? Checking the flop is horrid, he's calling with all pair + sd, all worse aces. We are behind 1 hand. Ahead of tons. Turn doesn't change much, there's still value to be had. After we call the turn don't we have to call river for this price?

Hasn't been mentioned yet, but does anyone else like raising the turn?

AA KK QQ AK are not limp/calling pf. 22 getting to the turn is unlikely, it's the easiest fold of pretty much any starting hand on this flop. So we lose to JT, which I also don't think is an open limp in late for this V. He has raised 24s with limpers in front, he's described as "too loose PF" but JT is outside his CO unopened raising range?? I think he's raising JTo unopened in the CO 100%. Even A2 I'd think V is raising pf (not that we lose to it).

The description says V is capable of raising with draws, which is exactly what I thought he was doing here. It looks like he's raising so if he hits otr he can value bet bigger than if he just called ott. We have $1,030 ott, it's too much to just shove over the $255, but raising an "in effect all-in" amount is what I'd do. make it $780 or something, and V knows it's put the rest in or fold, there's no $ left pretty much for IO.



AP though, I think it's as likely he missed spades as it is he hit clubs, I call.

results?

The turn card/play will decide how many streets of value we get. Not betting this flop is criminal imo, your getting called by any A, clubs, KQ, probably KJ, KT, QJ, QT and some random floats. I would always be betting this board.

Given the effective stacks, this would essentially be an all in. All that would accomplish is folding out hands that I beat and getting called by better. I think that villain would even fold A2 to an AI. This would just be an overplay.

I think this line makes the most sense. Villain is aggressive and the only reason why a bet/call OTT would be ok is if we thought that villain would shut down and give up OTR. In this case, we know that the villain is aggressive and is competent so he should know that this board hits my range. Therefore, his bluffing frequency should be very low in this spot since there isn't much fold equity.

Given the board and the size of the river bet, this is almost never a bluff and therefore, I think I should fold OTR.

^ If you aren't folding ott but are folding otr, that means you're putting him on a flush...? So why wouldn't you raise the turn to price him out? If you c/c the river, I'm okay with this line above (still prefer a turn raise), but if you are c/f the river I think it makes no sense, you're just handing him your wallet ott.

I think we're overlooking that pretty much every hand that beats us would be a pf raise from V. AA KK QQ AK JT, if he's peeling with 22 to the turn, that's all I see that beats us that makes a turn raise value ourselves.

Agreed. That's why I think ANL's bet/fold line OTT is optimal. Sometimes, we level ourselves and ignore the underlying basics fundamentals.

On a side note, I think that, given the majority of the responses, there's definitely something to be learned from villain's line.

In regards to DG post, and Dr. Chess.

This statement will sound very contradictory as well, and I can see where you are both coming from. As DG said in his first post, I believe the river is a call, after the turn b/c. I would not be calling just for the reason of "if you call turn, you prob have to call river", but more so for meta reasons and based on game flow. We have a pretty strong hand, and on that "very valuely looking bet" I am calling even if we are paying him off.

Maybe I am looking at this too much on a level 1 level, but in poker we will never make the right call 100% of the time, and I believe in certain situations, you need to make the crying call. Even if our hand is only good 25% of the time here. Though I do agree, we should base our analysis on the hand at the time, we certainly shouldnt always be making the decision based on the math itself.

Hope I am wording this correctly.

The only hand that makes sense given Villain's line is TcJc
Literally every other hand you want to put in villain's range makes no sense, given the board texture and hero's perceived range
Villain is never value betting a worse two pair here. I know you said he is capable of betting thin, but this line is the nuts.. its a real stretch to think a busted spade like AsTs...I guess maybe TsJs is possible