Location: Vegas during WSOP
1k effective
Villain: mid 30's dude
Me: 30's, youngish looking hoodie and flip flop wearer

Literally just sat down and am in the process of taking chips out of my rack. No reads. First hand I raised to 20, villain calls, I check/fold flop

Very next hand I open AQ to 20 from Hijack
Villain 3bets to 75 from CO
Big Blind overcalls

I'm starting to think flatting this OOP is marginal? I don't know....

Anyway I call.

Flop: (~$225) Q42

Checks Through

Turn: (~$225) Q42T

BB Checks
Hero bets $115
Villain Calls
BB Folds

River: (~$455) Q42T8

Hero Checks
Villain bets $175

Hero?

To be clear I am not toooo concerned with villain having a flush, as I think most of the types of flush hands he'd have here would have bet the flop (AKhh, AJhh KJhh, 67hh), at least a decent % of the time I would have to assume. I suppose it's not impossible especially readless to think villain coul have flushes here but I heavily discount it.

By the same token I think I am taking a bet-bet line with most of my flushes as I woudln't want him to check back an overpair. I might valuebet QQ or TT on the river as well but I might also want to check call sometimes with those hands too.

I 4bet AA pre mostly... so really I think my most likely hands on this river are AQ, KK, and QQ/TT at some frequency.

Is calling with AQ in this spot bad?

I'm not folding pre with the over call, and prefer suited wheels to 4 bet bluff.

I would size up the turn to $160 both for value and to deny equity.

Pretty easy call imo, and I expect to be good pretty frequently. The only thing that I would think beats us here is a flush. I don't think AA/KK would ever check this flop, and QQ would almost certainly raise the turn. Especially for this price, folding isn't an option...we only have to be good 21.7% of the time.

Calling the 3 bet pre readless is pretty bad in my opinion, and is a very possible leak if you have a habit of doing these kind of calls frequently. Its hard to make money being OOP with AQ off in a 3 bet pot 200 blinds deep. Pre this is a 4 bet or fold for me, and readless when we literally just sat down at the table- i believe folding is the best option by a pretty good margin.

Also i am folding the river, his sizing looks extremely weighted towards value. I dont agree that villain is unlikely to have a flush here either, as its very common to check this flop 3 ways with AKhh,AJhh these kind of hands. Just because you would have C-bet those hands on this flop, doesent mean your opponents will do the same. Vilains line is absolutely consistent with a flush here, he picks up a strong draw on the turn- and just calls in position to realize his equity when you stab at the pot.

So you're only calling this river with flushes?

Not neccesarily as tight as flushes only, but on this runout in a 3 bet pot readless i am starting out with a very tight callingrange yes. I just dont see many light value bets/bluffs in 3 bet pots overall from general population, and our one pair hand here is just a bluffcatcher in my opinion.

Half pot on the river is certainly very callable - and that's what worries me LOL!

I think we have to look at what our hand looks like to villain here. We don't 4bet pre so he's probably disclunting QQ+ before we even get to the flop. Your turn bet looks like TT, QX, JJ- and FDs. Then your river check looks like you're afraid of the flush (J9s just completed the turned OESD too) and don't want to risk getting raised.

So what does villain actually do this with that we beat? Both turned FD and OESD complete the river so if V is bluffing he has to have turned a weak pair into a bluff. That could happen, maybe he flats turn with TXs thinking you could be betting a draw yourself but when you check river he realises he faces mostly stronger pairs and can't win at show down.

But can he really expect you fold for a half pot bet? Wouldn't he go bigger if he was turning a pair into a bluff?

Can he actually do this with a value hand that you beat? Seems unlikely unless he's only putting you on JJ/TX and thinks he can thin value bet his JJ/QX. But doesn't he bet almost all of his QX on the flop except for QTs which is now 2pair?

So for you to win V has to check flop with KQ/QJs/JJ and then thin value bet you with them on the river. Not impossible but not super likely - IMHO I think he fears your AQ too much and just checks back his KQ- on this river.

So for me this initially looks like an easy call but maybe it isn't. I wouldn't fault you going either way to be honest. Id probably call in-game myself though just because pot odds are too tempting.

I think this is solid advice.

I can't decide if I check fold river or block bet. I think I Block river. Bet what he bet, $175. Ask yourself is he betting more hands on this river that you beat vs your line or calling more hands that you beat vs your $175 bet. And say that 5 times fast. I assure you he checks back KQ, JQ, JJ, on this river. Now that you check he is not bluffing. You do not have the Ah. Fold now. I also fold preflop.

I mean this flop is dry as it can get so I dont think it's impossible for villain to check strong hands here.

I agree on AQo being a fold here and I think I mostly do fold it OOP. I calld in this scenario for dumb meta reasons because I just thought my image looked very actiony just the way I was approaching the table and insta raising multiple hands before even putting my chips together. I know that's a very thin and optimistic consideration to base a decision off of but that's kind of where my head was at.

Re: flushdraws, yes I don't think it's impossible for villain to have flushes, but I do think this is the type of player to bet a good chunk of them. Again, it's a spot read, yes... but if you have Akhh or Ajhh on this board I think this would be a pretty great spot to downbet 1/3 while still having tons of backdoor straight and flush draws to barrel turns. I do agree with most of your post though.

What are peoples thoughts on calling with AhQx and folding other AQ's?

Pre is pretty bad, their ranges crush AQo and with the offsuit variant and being oop to 3bettor you’ll way underrealize equity and/or lose a lot of $$ when you flop tpgk or tptk vs KK/AA

I'm on the fence here anyway so yeah using Ah to decide which AQ we call seems sensible.

I'm mostly joking here but... you could also check raise him all-in on the river if you hold Ah. Probably too shallow to make him fold a flush but he has to think about it for $600 more. Without history of you taking goofy lines with V it's likely too weird a line to be believed though.

I call AhQx for sure. Still call AQ no heart here vs that sizing, dont need to be good often. Plus he reps very narrow and most people dont protect their check back range.

ie AKhh/AQhh/A2hh-A5hh/QQ+/Kxhh etc

Well everyone thanks for the advice. Villain had KK