This X1000. Just because there's a good chance that we're behind on the turn doesn't mean we should fold. We have at least 40% equity against even an uber-tight range (TT, 66, AQ, KdJd). Pot odds are a thing.

River is close, if he doesn't have ATs in his range here then we have 18% equity against the range above and should fold. In general I'd expect him to c/r flop with that hand so I'm folding.

Sucks. But the plan was to either fold turn OR call turn/fold river UI, so fold.

Pretty much why I prefer folding to an overbet OTT.

I gave my explanation in my first post, if you'd bother to read. The only real hand that she has beat on the turn that he realistically plays that way PF is exactly ATs (excluding AQ). And then he doesn't play ATs that way post flop. So there's no reason to believe we're ahead on the turn.

And there's no reason to put our money in at 2:1 when we're a 2:1 dog most of the time. Unless we have some sort of read that this guy is an idiot, a wannabe, or decided to run a hugely expensive bluff.

Been there, done that.

It's a 10 handed game. People aren't looking to showdown mediocre hands for their stacks. Numbers are good; so is common sense.

So you're folding OTT getting correct implied odds (if we happen to actually be behind) and 11 outs to the stone cold nuts (13 to the almost stone cold nuts)??

Folding OTT is terrible

It's terrible for villain. He just made the hand he drove 20 miles and waited hours for and got no action.

As if I gave a penny about advice from people who like to call 50bb bets to get pot committed with a second best hand.

P O W I guarantee all these people advising a call are also calling another $150 30bb when the river blanks.

Please provide a rational explanation for why villain ran a stop and go without KJ in the hole. And BTW, "he's an idiot an we're a genius" isn't rational.

I believe I did..

Yuck. Have been in this spot so many times and my default is to call turn and fold river UI. You called a PSB OTT, villian is aware of that and set up perfectly for a river shove. IMO we are calling hoping for a chop and can find a fold here.

call turn (lol at anything else), call river

I'd be pretty surprised to see KJ take such an aggro line OTT. Would expect something more valuey or a c/r

God you're insufferable and you're just posting drivel. Either you're intentionally trying to make people worse or you are just a terrible poker player (cue response about how he makes so much god damned money but can't understand the simple concept of direct pot odds)

We're getting the correct direct odds to call against his range (you know, that funny thing that people continually talk about). The times we hit, we continue, the times we miss we evaluate, with a heavy emphasis on folding. It's not rocket science, it's simple math

Turn is call for sure like many have explained before. River is pretty sick, I think it's a fold..

OP seeing as this villain can turn worse hands into a bluff, I'm not quickly mucking here.

Do you think we are good here 1 out of 3.5 times? I think we may be and will have to call.

Gross river spot. Turn is an obvious call (I can't imagine folding or shoving ever being good here), but I'm inclined to fold now. If he is bad enough to play this hand with AT (or, heaven forbid, A6), more power to him. We should win all that back plus some.

It's not rocket science and it's not simple math. It's called turning your hand face up.

"... every time they play their hands the same way they would have played if they could see all your cards, you lose." David Sklansky

I'm not the one who's terrible.

You're ignoring the board texture. This board runs over the PFRer. Her range is about as strong as it could be, and she hasn't shown any sign of weakness. It's like burning money. "weekend warrior, passive" doesn't come to the poker room to burn money.

I agree that there is some possibility her hand is best OTT. However that is not a sufficient reason to play for stacks.

So you have narrowed down villains range to KJ only...lullz

I NEVER said that. I'm asking someone to tell me, in a rational way, what the hell he is doing on the turn, if he doesn't have the nuts. And please refer to the FACTS set out by OP, with attention to detail.

See OP's description/history with the villain and it's pretty obvious Villain has more than KJ in their range.

She said passive pre in OP. No mention was made of post until the second post. Given the second post villain can limp call a lot of garbage including T6 s, A6s pre along with 66, AK, AQ, AT, J9, J8, K9.

Does he play turn with this full range? Not sure. Prob not.

But to assume he is nutted when he makes what is effectively a PSB on turn is ludicrous on its face sir.

Read that Q2 HH again...then read it again...then read it one more time. Then we can discuss facts.

K? K

Call river. Those of you that don't think AT is a major part of his range here have to be on something. Apparently people are discounting it from his range because he didn't bet or raise flop. You've never seen a "weekend warrior" MAWG type c/c top two pair on the flop before? It happens all the freaking time.

You seem to fail to realize that if he has KJ in his range, he has some AT and some QT in there also. Once these hands are in his range, it does become a basic math problem because for us to call the turn bet, he needs so few combos, literally 3 combos to be exact in a nutted range of {QQ, TT, 66, KJ}. 3 combos of AT gives us 36% equity. We are literally getting direct odds of 34% (1/(230+245+245)=0.34, or 34%) to call.

36 > 34.

Basic ****ing math

Please elaborate how V is such a wizard that he calls with a gutterball and bombs it when he binks but doesn't call with top 2 and then bombs is when the board gets scary or doesn't call with middle pair middle kicker, spikes 2 pair, and then bombs it

Based on your advice ITT and in others, that is extremely debatable

But even turning our hands face up, folding when behind but we have pot odds is an incorrect play...

And absolutely horrible hand reading, and absolutely horrible theoretical understanding of the game and how to beat it.

No, it's not. You don't understand the fundamental theorem and the concept of swapping mistakes. If there is only a small chance our HIG and only a small +EV in calling, it is NEGLIGIBLE that folding is a mistake. We intentionally make a SMALL mistake on the turn to avoid the very real possibility we will make a big one OTR.

How do we play the river after we call and blank? It is impossible, sir.

It is a small part of his range (because we can see two aces and one ten, but for other reasons as well). But your line has you calling off your stack because of that.

OP seems to think the villain has weaker value hands in his range. This is because in the past, the villain has taken similar lines to what we're facing now.

If this was some OMC who never got it in without the stone cold nuts, I can find a fold. Against this guy who can have worse two pair or possibly a busted draw (and will turn it into a bluff), I'm cool with calling off getting 2.5-1.

Says the guy who is putting V on exactly 1 hand and can't conceive V having anything else

OP has even posted a second read that shows this guy is way wider than we all initially thought, yet you can't seem to wrap your head around it. I don't think debating it further on my end is worth it anymore

Super lol at folding turn. You need 30% equity excluding pot odds. If you give him kjo you have like 27% equity plus a lot of money behind. Add in the fact he might c/f a set on a four straight (not encouraging this bluff just saying) makes turn a standard/fine/money making play. Also sometimes river goes x/x and you win

I would sigh fold river to jam. Sometimes probably folding the best hand but still you lose to a lot and 2 Pairs even top 2 pair is not that strong here. Would say river is a much more disgusting spot with TT or AA (but probably gii those turn).

Absolutely nothing wrong with call turn fold river. Don't let them convince you otherwise