$2/5 NLHE (200min/500max) 10-handed

Villain: Seat 8 UTG+2, $800, early 40s male, weekend warrior, passive pre but no major pots won at showdown
Heroine: Seat 1 Hijack, $850, young female, known reg, TAG image so far, just won decent straddle pot against straddler

History: Played in the same game several times but never engaged in a hand, friendly chatter, seen him many times take down pots with random 2pairs against TPTK

Villain limps, I raise to $25 with A Q. SB calls, BB calls, and so does Villain.

Flop ($100) A T 6
SB, BB, and Villain check to me. I cbet $65. SB and BB fold. Villain calls.

Turn ($230) Q
Villain leads out for $245.

What do we do here?

Ouch. You are all over that board yet he still donks the turn big? I can't see folding this hand. We might have 13 clean outs, but is that enough? Will we get paid on river?

Do you have a range for him outside of sets and straights? Would he ever do this with a draw or two pair (AT, A6, QT)?

We have almost no fold equity, so I probably just call and hope to bink an A or Q, which might get us paid off.

I guess folding is an option, but, yuck.

Only hand that beats u is 66, doubt he limps 10s. Would he call with a gutshot on this 2tone? Doubt it.

A10 and A6 are in his range. Calling here and calling river, vbetting if checked to

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Fold. He doesn't limp/call with anything you beat except specifically ATs
There's only 2 available and he wouldn't play ATs this way.

You can call and hope you're freerolling AQo There's two of those.

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Really, you are putting in 150bb on probably 13 outs? What range do you give V?

What?!? lol But anyways, the way he bet out, and considering it was only a 25.00 raise preflop, I'd say KJ suited or unsuited is definitely within his range, and the way he lead out so much would make me think he might have hit it and was trying to get you off a flush draw... Although the A/10 seems like another strong possibility. I'm calling, and hoping for another diamond, A or Q to feel 100% going into the river.

I think ATs/66 would raise the flop and he's not overbetting turn here with AQ with possible straights/sets out there, plus it's slightly unlikely he limped it pre. And you're just chopping with that hand.

I think the turn definitely helped him so his most likely holding would be KJ as he's passive and may not have raised the flop with that. Another possibility is KJ.

I think it's really close between calling turn/folding brick rivers, and folding right away. Do you even know if he'll pay you off when the river brings a or pairs the board? That's a huge consideration in deciding whether you want to call here imo.

OP - what are the stacks for SB and BB since they impact the SPR for each?
OP - other than passive preflop, what is V's calling range once you've raised? Is he TAG, LAG, limpaholic?

On the flop, we're at 7.75 SPR with TPGK + flush draw. That's pretty good, but now you need to get the sizing right and given a call for any flop bet means we've passed the commitment threshold, you need a plan now, before you make the bet.

I fell like we're conditionally committed, so make it $90-100 which sets you up for a turn 3/4 PSB + river shove.

AP - this slight over bet seems like he puts you on something like AK or just a flush draw, so if another A or Q comes, you should get his stack. Because of that, I think calling is the right play since he should call any turn raise and you'll be taking the worst of it when he does.

AT/A6/66 are all in V's range. You'd be surprised how often Vs will c/c the flop with hands like that. His range is wider and includes things like KdJd or TT, maybe QT and AQo, but regardless, his range is wide enough that we can't fold.

Having decided that we can't fold, the question becomes whether we can get paid on a river that improves us. (I think it's safe to assume that V is shoving the river on a blank). Any of V's holdings except KdJd are going to get spooked if a diamond comes OTR, since no board-pairing diamonds are in the deck. KdJd will get spooked if the board pairs.

One thing to consider is whether AT/A6 will fold over a shove. That would not be good, obviously. There are a lot of action killing river cards for that part of V's range though, so I'm not sure our decision here matters enough versus the other parts of V's range.

I haven't run the math, but when we work into the "sunk cost" of already having decided to call, it seems like we should be shoving.

Did you notice V also just led out huge OTT? Which amounts to almost 3x his previous bets? A6? Really? 10 handed?

I think if we shove we are getting called only by hands that have us crushed right now, and we might have 13 outs. I don't see the point.

BadlyBeaten, of course I noticed. Do you know how many Vs see that they have a two pair hand, particularly one that includes an Ace, and decide that they're going to the felt with it unless the board is four to a straight or flush? This board isn't even that scary to most Vs. Add to it that Vs love to put the PFR on AK, and there's no way we can exclude A6 from his range.

I don't know that we can assume that AT won't call. AQo may or may not call, and obviously we don't mind either result there. A6 I agree would probably fold, but are we going to get more out of that hand anyway?

If he has AT or A6, do you really think he's calling an all-in by this Hero on this board? If so, he's a complete moron.

Spots like this are where the dichotomy of 2+2 rears its head a little. I highly doubt most LLSNL villains are folding AT in this spot, because those Vs are playing Level 1 and see that they have Aces up. If they try to think Level 2 at all, they will "put us on AK."

If Vs are indeed folding AT in a spot like this, then we need to be bluff bombing the **** out of these boards. But everytime someone asks this forum whether a bluff bomb would be good in a similar spot, we get responses like "V is never folding his 2p hands here."

You can't just assume that a 40 year old white guy who's a 'weekend warrior' is going to donk huge with 2 pair to fold to a raise against a young aggressive reg.

On a board thats relatively draw heavy in a SRP he'd likely check raise with a set here. He's not only going to overbet pot here with a straight, folding here would be very, very nitty.

Just because you wouldn't call off with two pair doesn't mean a rec villain won't

Would you call with AT? I would snap fold, but I would never overbet this turn. Also, why wouldn't he bet and/or raise flop? Yes, most LLSNL players are bad, but at 2/5 with 150bb, they usually aren't that bad. If you play people who are, you should be making a fortune.

We could assume he understands what a dreadfully horrible starting hand it is. And that it wins 50BB bets about 1 time in 100. We could assume he understands NLHE.

Bazwong, I would not fold, but I'm not shoving expecting him to call with worse two pair. And hero is a young, female, TAG, not some crazy LAG who is bluff-shoving here with a hand behind AT.

I really want to play where you guys do and people will call this off with AT (with no redraws).

The issue is whether he would stop and go like this with anything but the nuts. If so, why?

I agree. I also think we can add hands like K9dd, J9dd, J8dd, 89dd, 87dd, maybe even 89ss, 87ss. Possibly a bit over optimistic but when you consider at least a few of those I think it becomes a shove.

I want to add all of these hands because of his bet size. It looks like he's looking for fold equity while protecting his gained equity. The SB and BB are relative, so it would be nice to know their stack sizes, but it seems like your range is still so wide. Which to me suggests that he should have a lot of fold equity, which is why I added all of those hands.

KJ, which makes perfect sense although I don't want to put him on one hand. Although I agree I don't think he'd do this with AT/A6.

If he has AT or A6 in his range, why do we want to raise, especially since there is a good chance he folds -- I have to assume everyone here would fold. I would (but I'd never play one of those hand like that).

My point is that just because you wouldn't do something, it doesn't mean he wouldn't. If everyone made perfect folds and never called raises without the nuts then games would be dead.

Just because he's playing 2/5 doesn't mean he's a good solid player. He's middle aged and a weekend warrior, from his POV he's seeing a young aggressive villain, he might not know she's playing TAG, he might not be thinking that he's 150bb effective here and that she's going to fold 2 pair.

For all he knows he might think she could call here with AK. You're probably missing out on value in many hands like this when you think you can't get called by worse two pairs (not in this hand specifically). People don't play perfect poker whether they're pros or complete recs.