Table is maybe 30 minutes old. V has been approached 3 times by people asking if he is going to play $5/10 today. From their interactions, I take it he is the guy they are hoping will fuel the game. V also got 2 outted OTR and then got all the money in, maybe 10 minutes ago. He's active, but not too aggressive, lots of l/c going on. Seems a little tilty, but hard to know for sure.

Effective stacks are around $600.

V limps UTG+1
2 more limpers.
Hero raises to $30 with JJ.
V calls, others fold

Pot: $70
Flop: 954r

Hero bets $45
V calls pretty quickly.

Pot: $160
Turn: 954r - 2

Hero bets $85
V hesitates for a few moments and calls.

Pot: $330
River: 954r - 2 - 2

Hero bets $110
V thinks for maybe 5 seconds and ships for ~$380 more.
Hero?

Thoughts:

River is a great opportunity for a $150+ bet, that is a fantastic runout for your hand. He's repping sets here... I would assume he opens preflop with 99, so all he's repping is 55, 44, quads. But wouldn't he try to get his $$ in with a raise before the river?

People are probably going to think, "lol results oriented". But this might be the type of villain I check back the turn for balancing purposes. Our hand screams overpair, and I don't think we can get 3 streets if he's an experienced player. I would however, bet larger on my second bet to get 2 big streets.

He is UTG +1 but you are acting first so you are SB or BB? just checking. overall I would have played this just like you actually.

problem for us here in my opinion with his potentially range is the flop is pretty dry which allows him to easily smooth flopped sets, and the turn (with his pause to think about building the pot or just allowing you to continue) allows him to smooth again as it brings no danger or really a reason to think you will slow down either. River again great and he has position so basically what I am saying is it's very easy to assign him a boat here

the way it's played IMO despite the thoughts that most would be opening with 99 which I honestly don't think a lot of weak passive, loose regs do. I would say it's very easy to feel crushed here.

I'd obviously fold the way it's played. I wish I could say i'd check the river and just call but I actually don't really have any issue with how you played it and I probably would have done the same myself.

My bad, I'm in the SB. I can't check back anything because I'm first to act.

I don't even know why I'm bothering to post today when you're beating me to the punch in every thread

Seriously 22 is the perfect board pair card for you

Agreed. It wasn't the board runout I was concerned with.

You seem to indicate this is a quick-ish call? What are you beating OTR that shoves?

I'm not folding. I think I'm betting a little more on each street (maybe even $35 pf since the table is loose passive), which should make the hand play out more straight forward.

You've ended up in a spot where it looks like you induced his shove....and since he plays higher, he's the perfect villain to do so. Having said that, he could have A2/23/36 since he's probably expecting other callers, which I think are slightly more likely than 99/55/44 based on the way the hand played out.

Did op check the river? Its a little unclear.

Given reads and recent history witn vilian getting bad beat this is a pretty easy call. If I am checking the river its to induce

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Well maybe not an easy call but I'm calling. Why not just bet the river though?

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Grunch

Lol... I hate this spot. Seriously, so dumb. The board says call... The player description says call... The pot odds are meh/fold (have to be good here ~30%)... The action says fold...

FWIW I would have bet more OTT and OTR, likely committing myself. Given that he just got two outed/plays bigger/is probably a fish, I think I sigh call here... Even as in typing this I'm completely torn. $380 more is a lot to be calling when Villains line says your smoked. I think it's really close either way. Now to read what everyone else thinks.

My response was assuming that you had position on Villain. I think it would be more of a call if you are OOP since a bluff shove OTR is way more likely then a c/r bluff shove.

F'd up the OP. I'm in the SB and led out each street.

So it looks lik everyone wants to call.

Results:

Higher limit reg + him tilting + your bet sizing = good call, nh

Yeah, after I thought about it for a bit, I felt ok about it. I thought all he could really have here is a hand he is spazzing out with and it almost isn't ever a value type hand, all of which would be beating me.

I agree with everyone above, call. Well played, nicely done. Although you should have called quicker on the river because it's an easy call imo lol

If this is an easy call for you, then you are stacking off way too light. All we beat is air ball bluffs and spazes, meaning the player description is why we call.

Grunch

I don't know how this villain responds to bet sizes, but I might just bomb this the whole way against a tilting fish who's playing lower than usual stakes. 65/140/shove. If I have evidence that he at least grasps a few basic concepts, a case could be made for betting it smaller.

As played, the river bet is a bit too small for my tastes. If he'll call 110, he'll call 160. Unless I had a dynamic with him that blocking bets are likely to induce a spaz shove (which we're not going to find out in 30 minutes), I'm betting around 50-60% of the pot.

A ******ed combo draw. Seriously it feels a lot like 67 or 53 or something stupid like that. Hard to imagine a set turned into a boat plays this well against you, though this is how I play them alot when I'm ip against guaranteed overpairs.

But yea lots of times you're going to get popped ott with hands that are beating you. They just can't resist.

I mean if he's super good he could have like turned a 9 into a bluff, but that is pretty unlikely as well.