People limp AK in straddle pots.

Not these players.

These players are so loose in their preflop raising range that I am confident that TT+ AT+ are raising hands.

Grunch;

I'm flatting here almost always and looking to get it in on non-paired boards and diamonds obv.

I just feel like if we reraise flop we never get worse to call and even the fishiest of fish will realize we have a flush.
By calling we get to see a safe turn and we probably get 1-2 more bets from the sets 2p dry FD etc.
if a bad card comes ott nbd fold.
Now it gets weird if we call and gets reraises. Then I guess we fold.

I would say UTG had AK in his range by the HJ doesn't.

Per your request in chat for more responses - (and I am completely grunching)

PLAY THIS FAST!

50 in pot, 20 + 65 to you, you call portion is $65, so when determining our raise, the pot is going to be $200 already. We want to make anyone chasing a better flush or someone with a set to be making an odds mistake. Forget any benefit of deceptive lines here. With that, we need to understand:

1) We are folding to action when another diamond comes OTT
2) We are folding to action when board pairs OTT
3) We are committing otherwise ...("shoving" over any 4-bet OTF, "near shoving" any blank turn)

With that in mind, we are offering no implied odds back to anyone, so we need to price out direct odds on a 7 outer (which is getting ~6/1). If we make it $265 to go:

They would be looking to call ~$200 into resultant $600.. and if 2 call that would be ~$200 into resultant ~$840. So $265 total surely gets the job done.

Flame away - you asked in chat - that is how I play it here.

Ott After flop raise I can't see anything besides bet calling, shipping on non bad rivers.

(un grunching now)

.. this is where I deviate from your line. Turn bet is too small. Bet 3/4 pot to pot

(and bet very small on river, ~$300)

I flat flop and let a bet get in each street.

As played I think checking is fine. Betting is a bit thin unless you can put more hands in his range that call. As it is, it's not too wide.

+10, couldn't agree more. Also I would raise more on the flop. I am still betting the river for roughly 330 to 360.
Question: what do we do if he check raise shuvs the river????? ( I am leaning towards calling)

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I actually like raising in this spot. While we likely aren't bluff raising in this spot I do think we're raising other hands aside from flush. Most sets and some 2pr hands will likely play it fast as they're redrawing if behind. Villains will likely call with those hands also. I don't see anything worse than 2pr putting more money in now, but 2pr+ will call a raise, especially from player descriptions, so why not do it now before action killers drop.

Ott I'm likely betting closer to pot, as most hands that continued on flop are still in there ott.

River is vbet but less than 1/2psb bc I'm inclined to try and get away if raised(go ahead flame me)







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Tbh I feel like a good answer requires way more reads/history than this.

Do you want me to list like the complete history of our meta game? We have hundreds and hundreds of hours together.

results? i'd bet/c $600

GRUNCH

i 3b/fold between 200-250 OTF. Probably closer to 250 because theyre calling stations.

If blank turns I fire again, probably between 350-500 if we get 1 caller, then on a blank river I'd shipp

Anyway OTF/OTT all I could really think about was all the times I've seen villain flip over random suited cards like Q2dd etc, which are all in his range so I checked behind and he showed 64dd amhig.

I do think that a small value bet is good, really don't like a ship though.

There are 8 diamond cards left, so there are 8*7 / 2 = 28 flush combos.

There are 4 diamond cards lower than yours (6,5,4,2) = 4*3/2 = 6 combos you beat.

He does not have a KdXd hand with the line he took (no nuts)... that removes 7 flush combos.

So on flushes alone, we lose to 15 combos and beat 6.

Now you have to see if you can find 9+ other combos in his line that call a river bet:

(not saying these are there, but pick which ones you see)

(3) AA?
(3) TT
(3) 77
(9) AT
(9) A7?
(9) T7?
(3) AxKd?

Prior to river it is a value bet that also includes a getting value out of a lot of KdX... so those I am certain are proper bets (OTT for example). I believe the flop can be argued as a flat only if this guy is a complete aggro.. otherwise the raise was best play.

Yeah my initial reaction was to bet 305 OTT which I think is marginally better than betting 265.

It is also possible that the bottom card was the 5 OTF and not the 7 but I just don't recall, also like villain is more likely to play Q2dd than 62dd because j2dd can overflush people etc... (I know, I know)

His river calling range is like only flushes imo which is why I checked although if I flat the flop I can probably get a third street OTR.

So BIP, show me some razzle dazzle: what is the difference in EV between flatting the flop and underrepping our hand and getting a river bet versus raising the flop and semi-overrepping our hand and forcing a check back OTR since we are at the bottom of our value range.

This will be some razzle-dazzle. Lots of variables here.

This is a great hand to post.

I keep trying to think of various lines here, but essentially all of them get shredded when I remember that it is a limped pot.

Is he ever folding J2 here? I.e... do we have any fold equity?

Lol no he is never folding J2

I'm actually laughing right now in my office at the comment

River is a ship IMO. I don't think these people are capable of folding a worse flush, and a set might not fold either. You lose to better sometimes but the nut flush or second nut flush would have usually raised back earlier.

I prefer to flat the flop too, but once you take this line, and the board stays the same for your hand, you can't check.

Flop and turn value bets can get called by 2p, sets, A/K draws, and lower flushes.

But a river shove? A calling range for that is only flushes and there only happens to be 3 flushes that we beat and 4 that beat us. Though it is true that the K or Q high flush is probably raising or leading at some point, so that can be discounted a bit...

It would also be pretty sick if we could fold out the J or 9 high flush with our shove, which is a possibility.

I'm cool with either a check or a shove, actually, lol. Is that allowed?

How often do we have to be good with our shove to make it worthwhile? I dont feel like going back and using my brain.

You'd be surprised by what you can get called with. Saying you only get called by a flush is wrong. I mean, if I'm raising the flop it's because I expect to get called by worse when the board stays like this.

"Villain has money to burn - so he calls too much and bluffs too much"... this is the type of player whose biggest regret is folding a better hand - not wasting a few hundred on a river call.

Worse is going to call here than a flush. No way he folds a set either.

Also, combos can't be simplified to say "4 ahead of us, 3 behind"... That is way out of proportion. There are:

7 KdXd
6 QdXd
5 JdXd
4 9dXd
3 6dXd
2 5dXd
1 4d2d

There are 22 that beat us and 6 that we beat... but as mentioned - we can throw out 7 KdXd combos (the nuts) and possibly 6 QdXd combos if you think second nuts would fight back earlier in line too

Yeah, I might be being a little nitty here. Excluding outher flopped fushes (which is a given, obviously) I still think sets, 2p, and K/Q hi draws can very easily call flop and turn but that range narrows drastically to only maybe sets by the river. If the reads are right though and he's LOLcalling with sets and top 2 and stuff, then duh yeah, river is a shove.

Good point. I'm tired today. Can you answer the other question about how often we need to be good to make a river shove profitable? I dont even need an explanation on how to do it, I just dont feel like doing the work.