Table is must move, 7-handed. The spot, V1, is a mythically drunk dude at about $600 effective. Messy chips slurred speech and gave me a little speech about how some other guy thinks he's the best but V1 will totally beat him. Saw him play one hand against other guy where it went limp-call pre, V1 bet small three streets with 86o on Q6xxx and lost about 25BB pot to KQ.

Other player of note

V2 Asian girl $400 played a few early morning 1/2 hands with her, loose-passive, she might remember me double barreling AJdd on K-hi board and doubling her up (she c/c KTo in EP).

My second hand played at table. I cover V1 with $600. V2 has $450.

V2 opens $20 in CO, folds to Hero in SB KhKs. I elect to flat and play a pot with V1. He may 3! Small, in which case I can 5! over V2 or flat her shove etc.

V1 flats all fold we see a flop 3-handed.

($65) As Th 6s

V2 checks. I check behind due to history. V1 checks through.

Turn ($65) Qd.

I donk $40 and V1 INSTA raises $100. V2 thinks, calls.

I doubt that V2 checks an A in EP with the FD, and I doubt she missed a c/r with a set. V1 can be raising literally ATC given read here, so I elect to flat.

River ($365) 9s

I check, V1 bets $100 again, V2 folds without much thought.

We have Ks. We're also facing a less than 1/3 pot bet against a guy who's just been cut off by the bar.

Thoughts on all streets appreciated.

You need to 3-bet pre. You're in the SB, which is the worst of all the positions around the poker oval, and you're relying on V1 to 3-bet, but there's really no strong sense that he's going to 3-bet. He's not a total aggressive maniac. He's not 3-betting every pot. You lack the read you need. Sure he's drunk, but that's no where enough reason to call here.

I played a game the other day with a lot of limping. And I noticed this one dude would min-raise every time he was in the SB. Every damn time. Like 10 orbits in a row. No joke. So on the 14th or 15th time, I get AA, and I limp pre after a bunch of limpers. The entire table limps. And then my man does his thing and min-raises from the SB. It calls around to me, and the pre-flop pot is really growing nicely at this point, and I re-pop large. He ships and I call and he has rags. Now that's a very reliable read. I saw him do it every-single-time. I have NO idea what he was thinking, but for some reason, the SB made him go insane. I see so no much reliable read in this hand. You need to differentiate between a "real read" and a "wish read." Wishing for something to happen does not constitute a read. "This guy is real drunk, maybe if I call, he'll just spew some chips into the middle" is a wish read. My read was a real read... and EVEN THEN, my decision to vary my play wasn't a slam dunk.

Also I assume you open checked the flop from SB (you cannot check behind).

As played, yes, check this flop all day long.

I'd check the turn, too. Sure maybe there's some value from KQ (which you block) and QJ, JT, and JJ, a flush draw or a dumb gut shot, but I don't think it's enough. Thing is, you tried for a play pre-flop, and it's fine to try things out, but it didn't work, and then an A flopped and the turn is now quite connected, which is really just unlucky for you, but now you're oop 3-way on a pretty bad board for KK save 3 outs to the nuts. I'd be much more inclined to value bet if I had position and everyone checked to me, since I'd have a lot more information knowing that everyone checked.

I'm not really seeing enough value on the turn. And if you do get called, the river is going to be a very meh spot in a larger pot where neither bluff catching nor value betting look great.

So my line here would be check flop, check/decide turn, check/decide river. If the pot stays small while I'm oop with the under pair to the ace 3-way, I'm a perfectly happy camper. If the turn checks through and drinky drinks makes a bet on certain river cards, I'm calling a lot.

Look at where you are now. You're facing a $100 bet on a $365 river. Holy **** son. Call or don't call at this point, it can't matter that much. Sure he's drunk and maybe he's bluffing, but his value range isn't that thin (QT, Ax, KJ, flush, J8, slowed-played-who-knows-what). I also don't see any read that this dude is a maniac.. the hand example you have shows him limp/calling and then betting small with a bad pair. That's stupid but it's not psychotic.

3b pre

i may elect to just fold the turn and wait for a better spot

Thanks Willyo for the in depth response. I think you're correct, and more likely I could have simply 3! and gotten it in with V2. I had been listening to some discussions Bart and limon held on keeping pots small Pre, but clearly this was not one of those situations.

If I'm fairly confident this villain calls a 3-bet pre, then I 3-bet. If this villain had NOT been over calling 3-bets, then I actually flat as well because I want him in the pot given OP description.

Flop sucks goat balls, yuck yuck yuck, but thank god it checks through on flop., Come turn, I'm not thrilled about the other player still hanging around, but I call. On river THANK GOD other player folded and we are just heads up vs Mr. Drunk guy.

This is the exact situation we wanted, so its an easy call. Based on OP V should show up here with all kinds of pairs with the occasional Ace rag, but we should beat 80% of his range (again based on OP).

Its counter intuitive, but if V has a high likelihood of folding to a 3-bet pre, then optimal play vs a super drooler spew monkey stationy drunk player is to make sure whatever happens preflop that he comes along for the ride. IN this case, it means flatting a raise so he can feel "priced in" and call. It just sucks that in this one case, a freaking Ace hit

but that doesn't make the flat wrong in this situation. Again, to be clear, we are flatting because we strongly suspect he folds preflop to a 3-bet. If this is NOT the case, then we 100% need to 3-bet pre...

Thanks dgi. I do think a 3! pre folds out V1 a non-negligible percentage of time. I also think a low uncoordinated flop that lets V2 play 99-AA fast will allow me to flat and bring V1 along with any piece, or raise/call or let V1 semi-bluff raise and induce a shove from V2.

You guys probably know better than I do, but repeat of the 100 dollar bet otr stood out to me. It looks defensive. I see players from time to time repeat bet sizings from street to street when they are weak. This looks to me like V is either only afraid of the flush or just has a Q. Thoughts?

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As played, ship river.

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