hmmm this thread has gotten pretty convoluted and garbled for me to remember where we were headed.

I never saw where hero had JT.

Knowing that now, i say this. Its pretty creative to go this far with this hand
in this pot not knowing at least a bit more about villain.

Thats not to say i couldnt follow this path. BUT.....
I would never raise turn. We cannot risk villain being confused and make a call on turn, then just call off river since he is so deep in the pot. Plus, the ace DOES smack his range and so if we attempt this, we need more info and more facts to give villain that he is truly behind.

1- River betsize gives us a necessary bit of info that he is not super strong.
2- Waiting to river to raise certainly does NOT look like bluff to villain where a turn raise could be identified as a raise with A (worse kicker) possibly.
3- We have enuff to shove now at river that "appears" to villain to be sizeable, and appears we just let him fire all he could, then we shove.

All in all, its a pretty credible play (after we get to river) but i think we are a bit shy in knowing villains call tendencies to do it, plus we have no equity whatsoever along the way which i dont care for.

I said before somewhere that my bluffs such as this carry a success rate of around 90%, and is due mainly IMO because when i carry them out, ALL the factors are given a clear check positive before doing so. Too many of our factors here are "almost" checked clearly a "go", or not checked at all.

So overall i say its pretty iffy and i would estimate the success rate of it as around 55-60% rather than the ~90% that i like to have. Still +EV though IMO once we do get to the river. Before the turn falls, i think the thought of it could be easily -EV though.

Calling on turn with zero equity, no overcards that can hit the board, not exactly knowing villain call tendency with TPTK etc., not knowing what villain will bet on river, is being super optimistic and most likely not a good thing.




note: No matter how i found myself at the river here though, i would shove and try to do it VERY convincingly and appear super comfortable in doing so.

Fair enough. Fwiw, i wouldnt have been able to decipher that he folds 50% of his range BY THE TURN - what youd need if youre jamming a PSB with air. It seems apparent that by the river 3 barrel hes bluffing, but he could easily take that flop/turn line with any AX, AA, KK-22, 88, 44. At that point it seems more board dependent and less player dependent (e.g., capable player who can fold a one pair hand with high c-bet tendency on a 844A board will fold enough river jams to be profitable). I say its close but at the price he gets on a river call and your LAG image, you may find a lot of that range calls and so he has to have air pretty close to half the time here and i wouldnt be comfortable of that by the turn. If you can read him for air on the turn though, /thread imo

I see where we disagree now: it's about UTG+1's range. His position is far too bad to iso from here; it's akin someone trying to steal the blinds from early position in a cash game. I can occasionally see villain doing this with a weak hand like QT, but even this should be rare, but putting hands like Q2s and 56s in his range is just absurdly optimistic -- he is UTG+1, not the button. FWIW, if I agreed on this loose of a range, I'd call with any pair on the turn as well.

With the AJ I'm usually betting the turn there. Yea if the turn gets checked through, I will bet the river a decent %.

One other thing. You should never show a bluff that is this creative. It's one thing just to show a random bluff for image purposes. I would never want people to know that I'm capable of making this kind of play.

is your read that V is a bluffable player? yes

do you have a LAG image, therefore able to represent a lot of different holdings that have Vs range crushed? yes

it can't be that bad a play ever, then, IMO,

If he wakes up w/ the top of his range, so be it.

and remember, bluffing, and getting caught, is also profitable.

If you're playing vs. regulars, you should almost want to get caught running a bluff like this, because you will be taking the same line w/ your monsters, and will be getting paid off by more and more marginal hands.

but obviously a very nice river play. feel like with all the criticism that's thrown your way, I need to be clear that I love the river play having reached there.

Not necessary, but the gesture speaks towards your character. I don't take it personally, but I do defend myself. People are entitled to their opinions.

1. 99+, AQs+. More likely pocket pair like QQ or KK.
2. He reps Ak/AQ, KK/QQ and AA. Looks mostly like a big pocket pair that is not going to give up control of the hand when the Ace hits for fear of getting bluffed, or he hit the Ace after his C-bet.
3. Your range should be 8s, boats, Ax.
4. Hard to answer (profitably part). You are calling with something, and there are no draws for you to be calling with. He has to put you on Ax, 8s, boats, pocket pairs and bluffs (floating with the intention of repping the 8). He has a good hand, so there is a reasonable chance he is calling, though probably not often enough. Completely villain dependent and dependent on his view of your image.
5. Shove any 8, boat, AK.

I find it strange that my river play is getting so much love while the flop and turn are getting so much hate... I need the flop and turn to make the river play. If I'm not putting money in on the flop and turn then I have no plan for the hand and I'm just sitting there with JT no equity. My plan the whole hand is to make a play at the pot.

As far as Villains UTG+1 range, I think I stated somewhere in here that the table is very nitty aside from villain and myself so he can pretty easily ISO from UTG+1 with a wide range without getting played back at or even playing OOP that often except vs myself, but I doubt he took time to notice it was my BTN. Keep in mind we're also playing 7 handed, so he only has 3 people behind him UTG+1.

That's because the river play is the only option you have. Like you said, it's not like you're chasing your 10 or j and hoping to hit so you can call him down.

Still calling 2 streets with no equity so you can bluff shove when villain might be bluffing is gonna be -ev, but shoving the river is your only option as played.

Imagine what the hh would look like if you folded the river...

Can we please all agree that villain is never betting 2/5 pot on the river with AA, 44, 99, A8? He might some times with quads just because he knows it will be harder to get value knowing I can never have an 8.

Disappointed you've deviated away from your first FE post (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...4&postcount=19) now that the hand has been revealed AintNoLimit.

I'd like to agree one some sort of math to estimate the EV of this hand. If it's marginally +EV then I like the play and the show because it is a line that I will take almost never, but a hand that regs will remember me showing down and help me get paid.

fwiw I'd probably bet that otr with AA, it makes sense.

So what would you have done if villain bet 220?

Massively lol, but I am never folding the river unless villain monkey shoves a bluff which is very close to never.

Snap fold to $220 obv, but villain isn't betting that much on the river after betting 90 on the turn unimproved. If villain had AA I would very much expect him to put 3 PSB to get the money in. He isn't going to leave a bunch of value on the table with a nut hand.

potting with aces on the turn and river makes no sense, there's 1 ace left in the deck. He doesn't need to worry about getting value from 8s 9s full or 4s full. He should be betting small to get value from a stubborn call with something like JJ-KK and the one last remaining ace which is not likely in your hand. Also if he bets small maybe he gets you to spew with a hand like 10/jo.

Lol wp.

I would likely be paying him off for two streets anyways and could potentially hero call the river with a pair. 3PSB is far more profitable then the 1:100 times I decide to spew into a passive nut line with JT. For this reason I believe villain would play the hand more aggressively. His line here looks like a bluff or thin value/blocker bet

Im not in the camp of thinking villain here would be sharp enough to valuebet small hoping for a spew raise. I just dont see it myself in my games almost ever.

If this was the plan, and we dont know specifically what villains tendencies are, then i would merely raise the flop. Doesnt even matter that villain may thjink we are FOS, he just cannot do anything about it unless he has an overpair or 8x etc. Why not just make it easy as possible, for quite a bit less money?

To me, floating with no equity just isnt a good plan overall.

Against this villain I won't get the pot with one bet. I would likely have to fire the flop and turn, and it's hard for me to fire an A on the turn as a bluff since it hits his range so hard (not like I know an A is coming) but I just thought flatting the flop helps me better rep an 8. I said before, Ideally I'd like to have a gutshot here, but I don't and a good spot came up and I took it.

I don't think villain should bet small with AA in order to get a spew raise, but because your hands that can call are so few and that A on the turn completely destroys the board in a way that makes it hard for him to get value from most of the hands he was getting value from.


I mean if you have KK here and he pots the turn and then pots the river are ever calling? Gonna be pretty rare.

Well a lot of things have to go right for the river opportunity to present itself. Firstly if villain makes a large river bet, you can't do anything, and just gave him a huge gift with the flop and turn floats. This is another reason why raising the turn might be a better play than floating it, if you are going to continue with the hand. Moreover, his river bet sizing is the first real sign of a "small/weak" bet imo -- where he bets < 1/2 pot. But most important of all, and we disagree on this, but I feel like villain's preflop range here is moderate to strong (which connects well with the board by the turn), while you feel that his range by the turn is still weak.

It isn't about what you think villain should do or about you would do. It's about what you think villain will do.

I'm rarely calling on the river with a non 8 hand when he makes a third PSB, but I'm frequently calling the flop and most likely this turn. So if we play the hand 100 time he gets much more value on those two street (and rarely a river call) 99 times than he does the one time I spew with JT.

Like I said, the 10/j statement was a joke, but still a minor consideration.

I don't know what villain would do, I just said that I would play aces similarly and think it's +ev, and definitely not a poor way to play them.

I would like to ask a question that I believe will help me play well. I am more often in the spot of the villain in this hand than the hero.

I want to know what is the best way to play from EP as villain in this hand when I have a strong suspicion that hero will be floating often.

Given a cbet on flop, I am looking for some info on the turn.


Kidd, I believe you have said that if villain checks turn, you are firing two big bullets, turn and river. Is this correct?

What is your play if you actually connect with the Ace? Same? Does it change for aces better or worse than AJ?

Thanks for any info you can give.

grunch: after reading the HH, i would bluffshove close to 100%

nh, dont really like your flop and turn line though.

I'm setting those things up to go right by floating. Can villain make a big river bet after I just smooth called an 884 flop and A turn? If I raise the turn villain is folding an A far less than he would if I jam the river because he will put me on an A with a worse kicker a certain % of the time where as he will never put me on Ax if I jam the river.

I agree with what you say about his river bet being the first sign of weakness, but the fact that I view his range as weak on the flop and turn combined with the fact that my line looks so strong on the flop and turn makes the flop and turn float more appealing to me. I like the way you presented your side though and I certainly see the merit to what you're saying. It's possible that I am assuming his range to be to wide.

It might be worth noting that in the previous session I played with him it was three handed so I see him with a very wide range of hands. Less applicable - which is why I didn't have any HHs to include because three handed is such a different dynamic.