When I say med strength hands I'm talking about TPGK or two pair/set on a flush/straight board. On this board I would consider an A to be a med strength hand.

[*]What do you expect villains value range to be here?

Ax, trips, fullhouse


[*]Where would you rate his bluff frequency with this line?

hard to say, but given that you called the flop and turn, if he's good, on the river, it should be close to zero. but obviously, the turn is an auto-barrel if he doesn't have a pair.

he can't really isolate the fish wide here, as he's utg; this discounts 8x a lot from his range. don't think he can be bluffing often on the river, but at the same time there are so few combos that fit his range. seems like his bluffing frequency on the turn would be high, but on the river it's more meta-game than anything else.


[*]What should my calling range be?

Ax possibly, since you having an ace will discount him having AK/AQ, but honestly, I would feel like it'd be a cry call with AQ here, unless you have some bluffing frequency reads or live reads that will sway otherwise


[*]Can I profitably bluff shove here?

I mean in theory he shouldn't call a shove with less than trips here, but at the same time, if he's very good (extremely rare live) and suspects that you're turning a made hand into a bluff, it might be problematic. I strongly try to represent lines that villains can comprehend: i.e. I would raise the turn here if I was gonna bluff. waiting until the river, will confuse him a little bit more; it should still work, but I imagine it would work more often if you raised the turn.


[*]What range should I shove for value?

I think I pretty much min raise any river that I'm raising for value. shoving looks too strong, which implies that you should be bluff-shoving very often. I minraise 8x, full houses, AK.

@kidd can we get some hands now at least? I'm dying to know what you called flop and turn with.

This was my thought process...

• What do you expect villains value range to be here?
  -I don't think villain can have a boat here with how small he is betting. He would likely be trying to stack me if I had an 8.
  -Villain could have an 8 and be betting small looking for a hero call from 22+
  -Villain could have a good ace AJ+ but I'm not certain he even bets that every time.
  -Villain could have 99+ but once again, would check the river a certain amount of the time.
  
• Where would you rate his bluff frequency with this line?
  I feel like it's decently higher than an average hand. His entire bluff range will bet the flop and turn, but since I'm likely to look him up on those streets very light he would fire the third shell to get me off floats and 22-TT.
  
• What should my calling range be?
  I'm certainly calling this flop with A high a lot, and I'm not folding Ax. Given the dynamic of the fish limping before villain raised, the best A I could have is AT, and I never have a pair better than TT. I don't think I'm calling with any pair less than an A. I'm either turning them into bluffs or folding.
  
• Can I profitably bluff shove here?
  I think so. Even though TT-KK and Ax are the same hand here, I don't think villain is ever calling me with TT-KK. He will call me always with an 8 and a certain percentage of the time with Ax, but I also expect him to fold Ax sometimes. I've already discounted all his monster snap call hands because of the bet sizing.
  
• What range should I shove for value?
  8x+

One thing that surprises me is that so many people are giving him credit for a monster when he bets the river so small.

Sure, not yet, but soon.

[QUOTE=jsaliba;24937534]Why is there a difference between your 8x hands? There is pretty much zero 8x in villain's range so K8=82. Even if there are medium 8's like 98s, are we really doing better by altering our play to



since the above, and im a nick picker.



dont take it too much to heart. Shoving any 8x is fine, in fact i like it.

So you floated the flop with an ace. Nothing wrong with that sir.

Call river, I wouldn't raise, he might show up with AK,8x, 98 or 99.

I agree with what I bolded.

I never min raise so I would be shoving my value hands. I guess for balance, and that's just how I play.

At 2/5, (unless i have enuff history to know the villain better), im not giving any player credit to be good enough to bet turn a bluff, i call in smooth motion and timing, and he bets river again....... with a third air barrel trying to get me off turn floats.

Im with you everywhere but there. If i call turn with AT, i fold river unless i know more about the villain.

out of curiosity since i know you play higher as well as i do, do you find that you are able to find players at 2/5 who are at the level of thinking that would allow you to call river here? Really? And if so, where do you play mostly if i may ask?

I didn't say that, I just brought it up as a scenario. I do agree with calling the river if I had floated with an A though.

Keep in mind I'm viewed as LAG. Mainly his river bet is to get me off of smaller pairs, but also if he shows weakness in the hand he expects me to put him in a tough spot. Getting me off floats is more of a side effect.

As far as finding players who allow me to call the river here. In short, no, but this particular villain was younger (probably on 2+2) and had been playing very well. Special circumstances (which is why I posted the hand). I'm very very rarely in spots where I would have a hand to call this river bet anyways.
Anytime I post a $2/$5 or $1/$3 hand I'm playing at Rivers Casino in Pittsburgh. I also play in California in a private game. When I go out there I play higher. $10/$25 and up has died off in Pittsburgh

k, thanks Sounds all good.

i think big pocket pairs are def in his range (jj-kk)...he views you as a LAG so with his bet sizes it seems like it could just be a blocker bet...also i think a bluff shove could potentially work since he seems scared with his bets, but since he views you as a LAG he might call you down

* What do you expect villains value range to be here?

{AT+, 88, 99, air}

* Where would you rate his bluff frequency with this line?

Given history/reads: ~20%

* What should my calling range be?

{AT, AJ, AQ}

* Can I profitably bluff shove here?

Probably not b/c he likely sees himself as committed with AQ/AK. If you were 100BB deeper? Then yes b/c he might fold AK, and probably AQ.

* What range should I shove for value?

{A8, A9, AK, 44, 88, 99, A4}

This was my though process as the hand developed. Certainly not something I would do against any villain, and although it did work out well for me this hand I'm not sure if it was the right play.

Stacks:
Villain $650
Hero covers

Preflop ($7): Hero has JT
UTG fish limps, Villain is UTG+1 and raises to $30, folds to Hero calls on the BTN, blinds and UTG fold.

Preflop is pretty standard, I like to take flops in position with anything that plays well post flop.

Flop ($62): 8 8 4
Villain bets $45, Hero calls

Villains whole range is betting here, and his UTG+1 range is wider because he is isolating UTG fish. I assume he is checking most turn cards and I can steal the pot on the turn. I also am likely to have two live over cards and a backdoor straight draw.

Turn ($152): A
Villain bets $90, Hero calls

Perfect card for villain to barrel. I can credibly rep an 8 here by raising, but I think I'm less likely to get looked up on the river. A call looks strong too, so I call.

River ($332): 9
Villain bets $140, Hero shoves for $485, Villain tank for a min then folds

I expected a check here from an A, but can't put villain on a big hand with his tiny bet. The river bet has me confused in the hand. My line looks real strong if I shove here, and I know villain can't snap call with anything he has. Like jsaliba said, his range is mainly one pair hands. The stacks are set up nicely for a shove, so I do.

I was paid $10 to show my hand so I did. Villain said he knew I was bluffing but he had K high so he couldn't call in case I had a 4 or something. I don't know if I believe him since he tanked and reluctantly folded, but if he was in fact being honest and almost looked me up with K high then my shove is terrible. I think he folded an A though.

I don't believe him. Unless he had K4s. But I doubt he is that good to donk there.

You played the hand perfect man. This is like the best HH I ever read.

Your flop float is good. The turn float is beatiful. Like maybe one day I can make that perfect read. The river shove was art at its finest. He can't call unless he has a fullhouse. Given his bet sizing on the turn. He either has an ace or a bare naked 4. So he can't call.

I don't think this line is +EV in general.

You have no back-up equity to make a hand that beats part of villain's value range. Floating with {22,33,55,77,ect} is far superior because you might have the best hand, and 11% of the time you will suck out.

And, when you're floating with even weak SDV you can win by calling OTR -- you don't have to spend the extra ~40BB to bluff/shove.

Watching tons of FR poker-training videos, I almost never see a coach suggest floating two streets with pure air, then shoving air, and hoping for villain to fold when getting close to 3 to 1.

This should especially be true at LLSNL where bluffing is generally -EV.

Regarding the results: You changed your opinion of the villain during the time that he bet OTR, and the time that he folded. You shoved b/c you felt he didn't have an ace. You said, "I expected a check here from an A." Then, just b/c he tank folded, you changed your view and said, "I think he folded an A though."

Which is it? Changing an opinion of a villain just b/c he tanks indicates the original read wasn't strong: Frequently villains will hollywood/tank fold when they get caught bluffing, as you know.

All in all, if the goal at any level is to win ~3500BB's so that we can take shots at the next level, then bluffing at $2-5 is unnecessary at best, and bad at worst: The players are horrible stations.

And if the kid wanted to call with K-high, then I take that to prove my points.

The idea of waiting for a better spot is sometimes lost at the snail pace that is live poker.

This is likely results orientated thinking. But we will never know b/c results were posted first.

I stop reading after this is not +EV. Are you kidding me its a bluff. You only look like a genius if it works. Kinda like a game winning play.

Ok now I'm reading your post.

Ok I here your argument. Its not the smartest play. To float 2 streets. But given villain could be bluffing at the ace. You can argue for a float to steal the pot on the river with a good card.

Now I need you to go back and look at the river card. The 9 was perfect for this bluff. Op easily reps 98 or 99. Those are the only 2 hands that make perfect sense for a shove. Especially since everyone knows kydd is a LAGReg at rivers.

I'm not sure whether the bluff is +EV or not. It really depends on how light he's calling me because I do believe villain is never very strong with this line.

As far as bluffing being -EV at LLSNL... I agree, but in this particular game it is very +EV. Many players are very nitty and our buy in rule lets you buy up to the biggest stack. So I'm often buying in for 500BBs. Also, I indicated this instance as a special circumstance because villain is a good player. Against a random, I'm never floating the flop unless he's always cbetting, and I'm never floating the turn unless he knows to barrel it.

I think you misunderstood me on the river. I didn't shove because I felt he couldn't have an A. I shoved because I felt like he will fold an A a percentage of the time, he won't call with underpairs, and he can't have a monster. I expected a check from an A, but I didn't say "He is incapable of betting an A here."

Maybe he did Hollywood tank fold a bluff. It could certainly happen. I have no idea. What I think he had after the hand is irrelevant to the action though so I don't see how it matters. Obviously how he acts after the river action will influence me. If he snap calls all of a sudden I'd be thinking "Oh sh*t, maybe he can have Aces full."

All I can say about winning 3500BBs to move up is - that is not my goal. My goal is to simply play my best game and win money.

The kid might have had K high and debated a call, but as you know, he could have easily lied about his hand to save face and not suffer the embarrassment of being bluffed. Who knows.

I rarely float with such little equity, but when I do it's on a board like this against this type of player.

I don't really think I'm repping 99 on the river. Mainly just any 8, and 4s full.

I think OP is underestimating villains UTG+1 range significantly. Granted a fish limped UTG, but villain will have to be on the monkey side to be iso-ing from this early of a position. The flop and river plays are fine (not as a standard, but acceptable), but floating this particular turn is very fps, as a competent player's UTG+1 range will be pocket pairs and big aces (and his pp's will usually be checking this turn), with KQ thrown in there, so his air should consist of 1 hand only. Though sometimes it's possible to just know from physical tells when they're light, and if OP's play was based on that, it makes a lot more sense.

Edit: actually if he's double barreling a lot, I also prefer a flop raise to a flop float.

+1/Great post, especially about changing belief of villain holding an Ace

Did this guy said he buyins for $2500 in a 2/5 game. That clearly was a balla statement.

I suggest a move from Pittsburgh my dude. Unless you go to school out there. No way you ever belong in that game. I'm not so amazed now.

I can barely buyin for 300. This guy said 500bbs I never played that deep in my life.

Why do you not like floating the turn if you think the villains range is pp and big aces? If villain has a range of only one pair hands and you think a bluff shove is profitable then how is there anything fancy about floating? Seems standard to me. Fwiw I did not pick up anything as far as physical tells go, but we were playing at a less than full table. Probably 7 people.