I just sat down, but villain has demonstrated he will cbet good flops and his bet sizing's all suggest that he is a competent-good player. I have played with him once before. I see him play pot control and get to showdown with med strength hands more often than I see him make good thin value bets. He correctly views me as a LAG who frequently makes moves.

I am intentionally not posting my hand.

Stacks:
Villain $650
Hero covers

Preflop ($7):
UTG fish limps, Villain is UTG+1 and raises to $30, folds to Hero who calls on the BTN, blinds and UTG fold.

Flop ($62): 8 8 4
Villain bets $45, Hero calls

Turn ($152): A
Villain bets $90, Hero calls

River ($332): 9
Villain bets $140...

If anyone cares I'll say what I had/why I posted the hand ect after some discussion. What I'm really interested in though is...

• What do you expect villains value range to be here?
• Where would you rate his bluff frequency with this line?
• What should my calling range be?
• Can I profitably bluff shove here?
• What range should I shove for value?

1- AA AQ AK 99 8x 44 (with the full houses discounted quite a bit)
2- I think I give villain almost no bluff range at all
3- I would be hard pressed to call a good villain with AQ here. So I guess AK+
4- I think a bluff shove could easily be profitable since the river betsize suggests AK AQ type hands more than stronger hands IMO. (Our image must be right, him not tilting etc obviously)
5- I would shove (the whole stack) for value maybe K8+.
6- I would raise to 300 any 8x.

Hope none of this was ignorant as I just ran by computer and replied quickly.
And not posting the hand IS better IMO since it forces only range talk rather than being subconsciously biased by any particular hand.
Some of this would obv be tweaked depending on whether we know villain better etc, but just right off the boat assuming he is reasonably decent, these would be my standards.



If he is REALLY good we could add QQ and KK to his value range for this betsize but at 2/5 im not giving anyone credit for that til i see it. (and never have)


note: and i guess its always possible some nonzero % of time for him to take the second stab on the river bluffing with air trying to fold out medium PP, but pretty small amt. i think. Not enuff to make me change any decisions.

His value range = 88, 44, 99, AK, AQ, AJ, A10

His bluff frequency = probably fairly high. If he had KQo, this is a great turn for him to bet to rep AK and get you off 55-77. You'd think KQo would give up by the river though, but its still possible he reads you for a pair below aces.

Calling range should be 8-X, 44, any ace, 99.

Can you bluff shove profitably? I'd say no. Any hand that you call down this far w/ should have enough showdown value OTR to not have to bluff shove. If you've got like 77, you should have folded turn probably. If you floated w/ nothing on the flop, you should have given up on the turn.

Value shove any boat.

I guess it's worth noting for people who don't want to do the math that the pot is $472 when it is my turn to act on the river and my shove would cost him $345 to win $817.

Only hands I think you get to the river with, playing like this, and can shove for value are 44 and 8x.

I'd guess villain has Ax a decent amount, probably not TT-KK because, as you say, he has not been making thin value bets often. I don't see him bluffing a ton, the board ran out pretty dry and you've called two decent sized bets, you have to have a made hand and the river is kind of brickish so why would he expect you to fold.

I would be calling pretty much any one pair ace, although I don't think I flat the flop with A hi, and not a lot else tbh.

FWIW I think you had 44-QQ, A8 or, but hardly ever, A9-AQ.

This is confusing are you saying I should call with 4s full and 9s full or shove?

Folding ace high on the flop is crazy, unless its super garbage like A5o. I'd call OTF w/ A9o+.

Kydd, I'd just call w/ 8-X. I'd shove w/ 44 or 99.

I disagree, what are we planning to do on a brick turn, whether he leads or not? What about KQJ turn? By flatting w/ A hi we are just gambling he is cbetting worse AND going to check the next two streets. ??????

If you're folding AKo on this flop to just one bet you are definetly folding the best hand alot. W/ ace high on this flop, we often have the best hand and if not, we have outs. If the turn is a blank and he fires again, that's the right time to fold ace high.

AQ and AK are 3 betting pre and any worse ace is behind a raise/cbet-this-board range.

1) AA-88,AK,AQ
2) very low, ~5% or less (by bluff I mean he has total air, such as KQs)
3) AK,AQ,KK,QQ, any 8 of course
4) Yeah. IMO it's obvious he doesn't want to play a huge pot here by his river bet. The only hand you would fear is AA and he's betting smallish to keep you in (unlikely). Alot depends on villain image of you, etc.
5) Any 8, any FH, AK

1) Value range = A2+, 8x, 44, JJ+. JJ-KK are only semi-value blocking bets, but anything up to the nuts is still doing well with these bet sizes against his perception of your range. He's occasionally value-owning himself but not enough to rate.

2) Low-ish. Say he has TJs, it's a good flop to cbet and an even better turn to continue, but most villains are looking to give up here by the river.

3) I think I probably call here as weak as AQ+.

4) Yes, though I don't know that you can profitably get to this point with a hand you would then want to turn into a bluff (the old double float is sexy, but has a tendency to backfire).

5) Thin, probably limited to any FH or quadzilla for me TBH. A weak 8 like 8Ts is probably thin, but maybe you can soulread him into a crying call w/AK.

I doubt many live players could tell you those prices at the table. All most of them see is they bet a milky type medium bet and get shoved on. To them, even the decent players dont think about some bluff shove. They just look at how weak their AQ or possibly AJ seems now that your stack went in and a player llike this will fold very often. WEaker players snapcall of course.


And for those that think he is valuebetting AT on river here, did you hear OP say that the villain seemed competent?

This HH is confusing. Idk what your asking. I don't know your game plan. Or your tendencies on paired board flop textures. Everyone has there own game plans.

Just to note, I'm ask what you think villains value range is in this particular instance. Not just, "What hands can villain bet for value." The difference of course being river bet size.

Obviously villain would value bet aces full or quad 8s (and we all know this), but if you think he would bet them bigger then don't include them in his value range for this hand. Vice versa if you think he would bet smaller with a hand like TT. His value range only pertains to the exact way the hand was played.

Not sure if that was clear before, but if it wasn't then it is now.

* What do you expect villains value range to be here?
* Where would you rate his bluff frequency with this line?
* What should my calling range be?
* Can I profitably bluff shove here?
* What range should I shove for value?

^This is what I'm asking. Don't worry about my game plan or what hand I have. Just think about what villain could have and respond accordingly.

Ok ill just input my game plan.

Pre ill call with ATC this deep on the button. Flop calling range is very slim on a paired board. 22+, 8x, 4x. Without that I fold flop. On the turn calling range is very slim AA and 8x. River ill just call unless I have the nuts.

I expect villains value range any solid ace something AJ+ also A8,A9. But I think he will show up here with a pocket pair. Which one is the question?

They are all questions. Fwiw, if you are playing that tight post flop then you shouldn't play that loose preflop, but that's besides the point.

If i try and nail villain down further without knowing him better i would estimate it like this....

Most likely hands
AK AQ AJ (1/3) KK (1/2)----------- 12 12 4 3 = 31
(i add the KK and AJ combos to take care of any/all air and quasi dumb bets he could make since there is not enuff meta etc for him to make these bets profitably IMO at this time)

There are those who think KK should be bet on river in spots like these since an A really should be much in villains range as much as a PP, so valuebet thinly. I disagree. Without some history, bets like that (while they do figure to be the best hand) do not get called by worse unless there is some KIFOS involved) (thinks im FOS) Then they become profitable higher level thin valuebets.

vs
--------------------------------
The white blackbirds he can show up with
44 (one of the full house out of 3) + T8ss (only one group of SC) = 6 + 2 = 8


So i think we are approx. 4 to 1 favorite to be able to shove villain off his hand. Maybe discounted slightly because even then better players at this limit can knee jerk call a shove with AK. So maybe between 4 or 3 / 1
for the price of a steal.

I honestly dont think about 99% of the player pool at this point stops and says "but wait, i only have to call X now for a pot of Y, thus i must call". Especially since there is a raise involved on the river.

What HHs lead you to these reads?

we don't know what you have.
either does V.
when you call flop and turn, and you are a LAG, and you have'nt raised, and you are still in the hand, I don't know about ya'll, but I'm starting to give you credit for a monster?! even if I know you are capable of a multistreet float/ river bluffshove?
LAGS are LAGS so they can get paid off, right??

at the same time, if he knows you make moves, youre only getting him off the very bottom of his range (QQ,KK, AX), which he may be more likely to have than say, a boat?

I would certainly shove any 8, and if you shove a busted 67/56 hand, it's prolly not horribad, if you think he's folding @65% of the time?
and ANL is certainly right (again), you do see some math-defying laydowns in these games cuz they 'think they're beat'.

I have solid fundamentals when I call flop. If you are drawing with a paired board not to a full house you need to fold. Simple as that.

Floating flop is cool, floating turn is spew or meh at best.

[*]What do you expect villains value range to be here?

AA, AK, AQ

KK-88 and AJs are possible but discounted

44 and random 8's are not a part of villain's range if he is TAG.
[*]Where would you rate his bluff frequency with this line?

bluffs with air? not many. KQs very rarely? I can't see him firing the 3rd barrel with air....

the top of the kk-tt range could be barreling a small percentage of the time thinking you are FOS and floating to take away the pot. i put this range both under value and bluffs since it is probably thin value but definitely overrepping his hand.
[*]What should my calling range be?

AK....can't think of any others that I simply flat. you probably would have 3bet AK pre. so i guess you're never calling.
[*]Can I profitably bluff shove here?

Yes. Villain's range is composed primarily of 1 pair hands. Any of these will have a very hard time calling a river shove regardless of pot odds. Your line is just too strong.
[*]What range should I shove for value?

anything that beats AK. 1 pair hands are the overwhelming majority of villain's range.



After all this, I realized that "villain pot controls medium strength hands" could mean different things to different people. some would consider a pair of AK on an A-high board medium strength since it's only 1 pair. especially on this board. some would consider medium strength hands to be 2nd pair top kicker or TT on a Q94 board.

could you clarify?

Why is there a difference between your 8x hands? There is pretty much zero 8x in villain's range so K8=82. Even if there are medium 8's like 98s, are we really doing better by altering our play to optimize vs such a tiny tiny part of his range?

If we are beat by a boat, we are never raising to 300 and folding for ~150 more.

I think the best play is to optimize our play vs AK, AQ. Minraise with 8x is only good if he will lay those down to a shove but call a minraise. I doubt this is the case without a special read.

If villain is really that tight, then we simply call with all 8x and shove only better.

So I guess my above post is wrong then, I believe the shove is good as a bluff, which means it isn't great for value vs 1 pair. So maybe take all 8x non-boats and put them in flat call if villain will have a propensity to play it safe and fold river rather than say "this guy is FOS, I call"

I saw him fire a dry flop, slow down on the turn, and then fire a river A. He was called and quietly mucked. He has been opening a good number of pots and cbetting every dry flop, but has checked back some bad boards. Nothing that I can specifically remember, but he's a capable player.