2/5 NL 100-300 Buy-In

V is young 20's Asian male, has been splashing around quite a bit. First hand I saw him play was an open to $15 with ATo that got 3! to $65 by tight old man. V called $50 more out of position and spiked a TT9 flop to stack old man's AA for $400. Continued to win the next 3 big pots he played and now has over $1,100 (pretty large for this buy-in structure). Tends to limp/call more than raise but has been playing a lot of hands (especially now that he's on a stack).

Hero is late 20's white male, has winning TAG image (been getting hit by the deck) since he sat down running $300 (max) buy-in up to over $850 in ~45 minutes. Hasn't always had to show hands to win so may appear to be stealing. Has played a few hands with V where hero would raise pre but then chk/fold to V when whiffed flop with bad c-betting board texture causing V to shrug his shoulders almost as if to say "well that was easy".

Effective stacks $850, V covers.

V limps UTG, one other limper, Hero raises to $20 with 99 from CO, folds around to V who calls, limper also folds. Heads up to the flop.

Flop ($52) 457

V checks, hero bets $35, V calls.

Turn ($122) Q

V checks, hero checks back

River ($122) 9

V leads out for $105.

Hero?

$290

$390

hes strong

I'd actually bet/fold the turn for value.

You continue to get value from all sorts of hands (66, 65, 64s, 43s, 76, 87, 7x, 6x, 8x, 33).

As played, I agree with wj94, toss out around 300.

My first thought.

As played if you get jammed otr are you calling it off?

On the turn, I would be bet/folding.

As played on the river, I would probably have to raise/call. Don't think we can fear 86,63,QQ enough to fold the fourth nuts, and we'd be getting nearly 2.5:1.

But that would be pretty gross.

Yeah, on second thought, river might be a raise/fold.

Depends in part on how loose V is pre-flop (how many of the 32 combos of [86,63] are possible).

Willy, am I missing value in spots like this by raising too much on river?

When I see a guy pot it like this I feel they are quite strong and i usually go at least 4x instead of 3x, but maybe Im getting too many strong hands to fold with such big sizing?

I don't put him on 63 or 68 here. He could have spiked two pair with Q7, Q5, or Q4 and tried to check raise you on turn. Saw that you checked and no flush on river. Continues to bet out.

I reraise here to $290 - $330 to get two pair or trips to call. Only straight is going to repump you here.

P.s. I didn't read other replies until after I made my post.

Just calling is so mubsy, but I feel like he is kind of strong here. Maybe he plays some missed flush draws this way, but the check OTT/lead river makes me think he hit and thought he would get the most value by letting us take the lead. Given dynamic of V missing value against us in the past makes me think he might be getting tricky here.

The question is what will he call a raise with here that he played this way OTT? I think he can fold most Qx, not a ton of two pair hands he can have here, some missed draws and a few made straights. He's really only calling with hands that beat us, unless we think he's capable of a bluff shove.

Raise to ~$300. I really can't see folding here, but it would be so gross if he re-raises.

I think I would have bet turn, too.

Obviously he can have all lower sets as well.

These are the hands that can turn your session one way or the other!! I almost 'hate' being IP here. If V Flopped 2pr+ is he going to lead Turn or allow Hero to continue to bet? We don't know Hero's history when he does c-bet .. only that he will fold when he doesn't c-bet from OOP.

I don't really like it when a V l/c 'a lot' of hands ...

QQ .. not likely but possible, V probably 3-bets PF?

63/68 .. possible and V 'shouldn't' bet out OTT even though bd flush draw popped up IMO. Depends on how often V thinks Hero is to continue here with Q hitting board.

Qx .. possible and very UNLIKELY to call a River raise IMO since Hero's image is a bit passive and is showing aggression.

2pr .. possible and PROBABLE to call a River raise since Hero is likely to continue OTT if he already has a strong hand (set, overpair, AQ).

So it comes down to what V will call with and what V will raise with against a Hero who suddenly wakes up on the River with aggression. Is V likely to River 3-bet QxXx 2pr hands (and all other sets)? If so, then we need to be ready to 'consider' calling a River 3-bet shove. If V 3-bet shove range is big enough to include a lot of the hands we beat, then we need to call the shove and can 'safely' raise here.

If V calling range is 'tiny' then we need to consider just flatting since we will be beat quite often when V shoves.

The next question is 'how much?' do we bet so as to not look like a weak Qx (bad kicker, looking for showdown) but large enough to deter (narrow) the 3-bet shove range if we aren't willing to call the shove.

If we think we are going to r/f we can go around $165 on top ($270 total). This might even draw a raise that isn't a shove from V. I also think it's a bit more attractive to 2pr hands than a 2x raise and even get some crying calls from Qx.

If we think we are going to call all 3-bets regardless, then pop it up $210 (2x his bet) to $315 which is a little less than half our remaining stack. At what point does this look bluffy to V as well? We can't shove here and get called by worse, right?

We don't know much about V post-Flop tendencies from the previous hands. Would V be betting out here OTT or slow playing his monsters?

I think I am less likely to call the shove AND I want to get more weaker hands to call down, so I think I opt for the raise of $165 on top or just call it down so I can see his cards.

We may not see the River if we bet Turn (I really don't see V raising Turn though), but I certainly would feel much better about just calling this River if I had picked up some value OTT. V must 'know' we don't have a Qx/KK/AA hand here based on Hero's own description of himself, so what can V put us on here that he is going to jump at the chance to call a raise with or see as a bluff and shove with 'a lot' of stronger hands? GL

Good points all around, it was definitely an interesting spot the way it played out. I really should be betting turns like the Q to charge pair+strt draws especially in position. I can't specifically remember what my reasoning was for checking back the turn at the time but I'm sure I was just trying to "pot control" with a medium strength hand which really just gives V a chance to catch and bet or miss but bluff a scare card (A,K,3,6,8) making it a tough spot OTR. I like the bet/fold OTT more now that I think about it.

It's a really important question - bet sizing is so important.

I don't have the perfect answer, but I was thinking 400 is a PSB giving villain 2:1, and I do think it can get more folds from worse (and obviously always get the calls from better). Psychologically, I feel like 400 is a big jump from 300, as well. Maybe something like 290-295 is even better in that respect. But I also feel like 300 looks a lot less calculating than 290-295.

Obviously a big factor is villain's range. V l/c pre, c/c flop, c turn, and potted river. Could definitely be a poorly played strong flopped hand (44, 55, 77), but there are only 9 combos of those hands. So I'm not seeing a wide range of good absolute strength hand hands that pay off very large bets.

In fact, in many ways, our river raise is pretty damn thin.

We even need to consider if raising is too thin, and if calling is best.

Like you said, you feel the guy is pretty strong. I agree with you. Well, pretty strong is something like 44, 55, 77, 86, 63s. That's 9 combos of sets and 20 combos of straights. V is limp/calling a ton of hands pre-flop, and 86 could well be in his range. Could he have a flopped pair turned two pair Qxs? Maybe, but that's not even a lot of combos (just another 7).

With the math above, we're looking at maybe 20 better hands, maybe 16 worse.

Discount 63s and Qxs, and we're at 16 better, 9 worse.

Obviously, if we can discount 86o and/or add random two-pair (you can't really do both,, however), then a raise becomes more profitable.

So I do think a raise is a lot thinner than it looks, and this might be a call. If raising, I prefer the somewhat smaller size to keep his calling range as wide as possible.

^^^Great analysis, thank you!

It would definitely have helped if I had a bit more history with this V to know more about how he would play his sets/2prs vs strts. Unfortunately I'd never seen him before and this session was only 45 minutes old. I can tell you that the AT v AA hand he raise/called pre, x/c flop, x/c turn, and open shoved river for less than a PSB. It seemed like when HE liked his cards he was willing to put a LOT of chips in the pot, regardless of the true strength of his hand which you often see with more LAGgy players who play so many hands it doesn't take much "true strength" for them to feel as though they have "relative strength".

I didn't think of this in the heat of the moment but after reading your posts I now see that his river 3-betting range could also include lower sets and 2pr hands which to him are basically the nuts. Problem is that if I raise the river and get 3-bet, the MUBs take over and I quickly would narrow his range to only strts and fold when he could actually be shipping it in with 2pr

I didn't even put QQ in his range as he would've most likely l/rr pre or x/r the flop, so I'm really only worried about 36/68 OTR. I think he x/r's the flop with 2pr and sets due to straight cards but with limited history it was hard to say with certainty.

You folded the river? What was the result?!

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Results:

yea well said willy, its just that I hate when I 3x raise in a spot like this and get SNAPPED off so fast and im left wondering how much more of a bet this guy was calling cuz obviously hes calling more

but then again, other times they tank fold and its obvious they were calling a slightly smaller bet

i also dont mind the call sometimes, obviously because like you pointed out there are more combos of straights, but id also like to add that some players who dont care about the relative strength of their hand will snap shove two pair and lower sets to our river raise in this spot lol, which scares me and is beyond sick, and although they arent too hard to identify, when were new to a table it can be tough

I'd be bet-calling turn. What better hand do you expect him to call flop and raise that turn? There aren't a whole lot.

Either way definitely bet turn

I totally agree with you that he almost never raises the turn.

When I bet the turn, I'm not expecting a raise.

But those very rare times he does raise, I fold pretty quick.

How can we call? Because we expect air/draws/pair+draws?

I don't see those in his turn c/raising range.

I guess against this particular villain I'd bet/fold. Had to re-read the description a few times because it actually doesn't really say anything.

In general though, maybe not in this case -- yes, I'd expect those sorts of hands at least as often as I'd expect Q-rag that turned 2p or tp+oesd (tho he might not raise the latter) from a utg limp/caller (even a slightly looser one) if he ever raises as a bluff.

Though Hero did raise pretty small preflop, villain might not be limp/folding anything to that sizing. In which case he does have quite a few combos of better he could take a c/c c/r line with and we should fold.

bet/folding just because V's line doesn't make much sense with worse is a leak. You should mostly consider how plausible it is that V has better. If you can only give him credit for 10 or fewer combos, you should then consider if V might be doing something weird with another part of his range.

That's a really good point - combinatorics matter and can provide important clues.

Though I guess it goes both ways, and there are many factors. Sometimes there are 10 or fewer combos, but they will be very nut-heavy. For one example that can be somewhat generalized, a river 3-bet from a random 1/2 V is so often a monster no matter how few combos are possible.

Your point stands though and is good- for sure, you need to consider combinatorics. If someone is repping like 6 combos in a line that really doesn't make that much sense, isn't so consistent with pre-flop ranges, etc., etc., it makes a big difference.