Hi here’s I hand I played in 2/5 I’m not sure if I’m sizing right, especially since we’re a bit deeper than 100bb.
Sizing recs on all streets appreciated.

2/5 effective 800.
Hero HJ KQss opens to 20. BB (tilting?) weak player calls.
(42) Flop Q32dds
X 20 call.
(82) Turn 3s
X 70 call.
(232) Riv 5c
X 150

Flop should be a little bigger, $25. When looking at half the pot round up rather then down. If you think villain is tilting enough that he doesn't fold any pair/any draw and calls with some air then $30.

Turn should be smaller. $45 at that point is fine. You want weaker hands to call and a near pot sized bet is too likely to get folds. Plus, when you continue to get calls on this pretty dry board you should be looking at a bit of pot control. You would want to bet something though because flush draws are among villain's most likely hands.

River is more about ranging this specific opponent and what he calls with. If you think he doesn't call another street with a worse hand checking is fine. If you think he is going to station you off with worse QX and middle pairs then bigger is fine. Generically I would go $100 or check. If you think he is going to tilt call wide then $150 is fine.

Interestingly if we go 2/3, 2/3, 2/3 we end up with 30, 70, 160 ish and never make a near pot sized bet to chase away value and never bet less than half to encourage floats/draws. In general I like 2/3 as a baseline and then adjust based on board texture and V. Going for this much value OTR after potting turn seems ambitious as Vs range should be narrowed OTT but maybe they will tilt it off.

Well I’ll give my reasoning for my sizes that might help:

Pre I go 3x or 4x open usually 3x with stacks > 100bb and 4x when stacks> 100bb.

Flop I’m gonna be betting pretty wide here possibly any 2 Broadway’s, any flush draw or BDFD, any OESD any gut shot, any pocket pair... so smaller sizing for when I’m betting a larger % of my range (is this right?)

Turn now there’s 2 flush draws out there. So there lots of hands that I can be bluffing with? Here I would barrel any flush draw, any queen, any over pair. Also our opponent appears to be capped (he would often c/r the flop with a set) so we don’t need imo fear value-owning ourself with KQ here, we just have the best hand. (I guess AQ exists some %). However these conditions are why I make a big bet on the turn, to polarize, and to attack a capped range (?).

Now on the river my range hasn’t changed since my turn betting range, it’s just gonna be missed flush draws (I have a lot of them) and Q+ for value. However! Our opponents range looks weak and I want a call... so I size it down a bit from a pot size river bet, just 60% I still want to bet big enough to rep missed flush draw?

Hows the logic?

I think 25 is better Flop size

Your logic is sound but your looking at your range too much and not at villain's range enough. Plus your pushing your bet sizes around too much based on that logic.

I think your looking at this from too much a range balance point of view and not enough from what extracts money from mediocre players. On the turn you have the best hand most of the time but you don't want to push the worse hands out, you want them to call when well behind.

U mean hand reading beyond: “he flat called the flop when he would raise his sets, therefore he’s capped, so I can bet big” ?

Funny I was initially thinking I bet too small on the turn... is this not an ideal spot for a turn overbet? (Maybe 1.5x pot)

Larger flop, smaller turn, river is fine.

Live players not likely to be sensitive to 5 more on the flop, but close to pot on turn will be viewed as pretty strong and you want action. Also large disparity between flop and turn sizing is not good imo.

Not having a static open size is good IMO. I used to use $25 as baseline but the last couple of months I've been using more $20 sizings and like the results. Obviously only going this small if I'm first in. In my games there's not much difference in calling percentage between 20-25. 30 seems to get a little more respect.

+1

I was going to write almost exactly this yesterday but got busy at work. The logic is sound but I agree it focuses to much on Hero and too much on balance and protection. More focus on Vs would be good IMO. Take tilt into consideration too. A side effect of sizing focused mostly on Hero may be that gives Vs more info on your actual holdings. You get more from the fish who are never folding flush draws but much less from decent players who would have continued for less than a PSB OTT. A good player may recognize your sizing as protection and float with the specific intention of repping either flush or trips / boat. They can also correctly flat monsters in position and raise river for value. Against sticky fish I agree getting as much as you can on every street is optimal, the V description is just weak though so I'm not sure how much they will call. If they are weak tight then I really don't like the turn sizing. If they are loose passive and sticky then I do like it, but in that case we should have gone bigger on the flop and river as well.