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Old 11-25-2018, 12:53 AM   #1
Matt98
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2/5 Sick spot with second nuts

Hero($620ish): 20 year old WM. Am unknown to most at the table. I won a decent sized pot earlier on and had a stack up to 1150, but I chipped down to where I am now due to reasonably large pots I lost with KK, AK, and a set. I didn't show what I had in any of these hands so I might have an image of a calling too much but most of it was pretty standard I think. I do think one particular hand is kind of important to this hand because it was against this hands villain.
Villain straddles, I raise to 50 with KK after UTG1 calls. V calls.
Flop comes A45r, check/check
Turn: 3, bringing a flush draw. V bets 75, I call
River 8x, V bets 125, I attempt a hero call and V shows us AK.
I think the turn is standard, but I think villain might have me marked down as someone who calls down light.

V(Covers): 5/10 reg, high VPIP, aggro pre-flop. Seems like a very good player. He's sitting on probably around 1500.

Hand:
V opens to 15 from MP, HJ and CO call, I call on BTN with QJdd, blinds call as well.
What do we think about a squeeze here and getting to see a free turn?

Flop($90): Qh8d6d
V c-bets 20, folds to me, I call, rest fold.

Turn($130): Ad
V check, I bet 60, he calls

River($250): Ts
He checks, I bet 150, he tanks for probably a minute and a half and jams for my remaining 520ish.

Hero???

Logic for a call: AK, KQ, KJ, and even K8 are all blocked. In theory, he should only have two combos of King high flushes here. Also, he's a 5/10 reg, so I'm sure he capable for mixing in some bluffs with the nut blocker here, and since he's a 5/10 guy, he's more than used to pots this size. And considering I look extremely young and that i've never played with him before, he probably knows an all-in like this is something I'm not very used to.

Logic for a fold: This is literally never a worse value hand. And on top of that, I can't think of many KdX hands that open pre and check turn. The only ones that might make sense are KdQx but KdAx bet turn for sure and he wouldn't c-bet with any over KdX hand.
And going back to the hand from earlier, I don't know if he'd really believe he could get me off of a flush since I called him down.

Should we fold the second nuts here.
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Old 11-25-2018, 01:08 AM   #2
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Re: 2/5 Sick spot with second nuts

Calling turn and river with KK on a A-rag board vs a ep limp call is terrible.

Main hand...

V bets a pathetic sizing OTF into 6 other players. I would treat that as a check and raise it to a normal bet size of 65-70 or so.

Snap call OTR vs this guy. This would be a better/closer discussion if you had a straight or set OTR.
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Old 11-25-2018, 01:17 AM   #3
Matt98
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Re: 2/5 Sick spot with second nuts

For the record, V was the straddler in the other hand, and given it wasn't a great board for my range I figured a turn call would be good to mix in to be sticky.

I thought about a flop raise but went with call planning on raising brick turns.
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Old 11-25-2018, 01:28 AM   #4
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Re: 2/5 Sick spot with second nuts

H1 Imo flop should be a 1/3, and then fold to a river bet. Turn you're in a weird spot since you're super capped and you're checking too many hands otf when you have a huge nut advantage (which is bad), and river is a pretty bad call he has a gazillion sets/straights/two pair here, and apparently he value bet AK. Your EV of betting your whole range here is just almost always going to show more EV than whackly constructing/splitting your checking/betting range. The only hand I'd consider checking this flop is with A2s/A3s, as they are just nut hands to check with and probably yield more EV as a check. tbh i'd just fold ott ap.

H2 I would not 3b pre, perfect hand to take a flop IP vs a bunch of fishies and people just dont fold enough vs 3b. 3betting just massively bloats the pot.

flop call is fine to keep ranges wide, we aren't afraid of any turn cards. I can see a point in raising, but keeping ranges wide often induces more mistakes from our opponents. Whereas if we raise here we're just flipping vs their continuing range.

Turn I'd size up, he's either calling or he isn't. ie inelastic.

River meh call. Not folding. You really only lose to K10dd/K9dd and I don't think he plays all 2 hands like this at 100% frequency. esp with him being a "pro" i seriously don't think he's 1/5 betting with K high here, he's most likely checking or betting a std 1/2-2/3.

So if we give him like .5-1 combos of nut flushes here, we just have a super std call. We only need less than 1/2 combos of bluffs/worse value hands to BE on a call.

I could consider folding maybe a 10 high flush or 9 high flush but i'm just never folding here in any universe.

Last edited by Minatorr; 11-25-2018 at 01:41 AM.
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Old 11-25-2018, 01:30 AM   #5
Avaritia
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Re: 2/5 Sick spot with second nuts

For the first time in the history of llsnl strat titles, this is indeed a sick spot.

Don’t 3b pre for reasons. Don’t raise flop.

Otr, weird. I think you are wrong that he can’t have AKd bc if he is good turn is a pretty std check as the hand went 18 ways pre. I’m also not sure he’s good enough to double check KT/9dd...I just don’t see that much live even from “not bad” players. But his whole range mostly wants to check turn...so that would be impressive if he did. At the end of the day this would be a very good line with the nuts for value, and as you said I don’t think he takes this line expecting a fold. That said...he could have sat there for a minute with AKd/KdQ and convinced himself to go for it.

I’m not good enough to lay this down, and I’ve gotten very good at folding over the years. I actually advocate folds in tons of spots that people label as “coolers” or “top of range” etc. At the end of the day, realize that you aren’t losing much money in these spots, if at all.

KK turn call is meh and river call is prty bad in first hand.
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Old 11-25-2018, 01:35 AM   #6
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Re: 2/5 Sick spot with second nuts

Minatorr - the only combo he can have is KTdd since we have QJdd. I’m not folding either, but that’s certainly the way he’s playing it.
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Old 11-25-2018, 01:36 AM   #7
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Re: 2/5 Sick spot with second nuts

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Minatorr - the only combo he can have is KTdd since we have QJdd. I’m not folding either, but that’s certainly the way he’s playing it.
Woops my bad.. Time to edit lol. He can also have K9dd or if he's bored K7dd, which still comes out to some frequency of 3 combos of hands he can have. I think a lot of "pros" are going to snap open K9dd from MP, esp if they open somewhat loose, are bored, and play higher (as he is 5/10)
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Old 11-25-2018, 01:39 AM   #8
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Re: 2/5 Sick spot with second nuts

Man this thread going on right now is super similar, serious deja vu.

Think you want to be raising the flop here.

Snap calling river. This is going to be the nuts quite a bit, but there's just no way we can have a good enough read on this guy to say he has more or less exactly one of two combos (KTtdd, K9dd) more than two thirds of the time. Just impossible.
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Old 11-25-2018, 02:05 AM   #9
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Re: 2/5 Sick spot with second nuts

Wtf snap call river and it's not even close. If he has a weirdly played KTdd or K9dd (literally 2 combos) then pay the man his money. It's unlikely he has that anyway when he x/calls turn.

You only need to find 1 bluff combo to make this a profitable call, and villain could easily have the naked Kd here. I also disagree that this is never a worse value hand: why can't an aggro player raise a weaker flush here for thin value like T9dd?

Personally, I'd 3bet preflop and I'd raise the flop, but the most important thing is that you don't fold to this river raise.
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Old 11-25-2018, 02:33 AM   #10
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Re: 2/5 Sick spot with second nuts

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Originally Posted by Minatorr View Post
Woops my bad.. Time to edit lol. He can also have K9dd or if he's bored K7dd, which still comes out to some frequency of 3 combos of hands he can have. I think a lot of "pros" are going to snap open K9dd from MP, esp if they open somewhat loose, are bored, and play higher (as he is 5/10)
Yah realistically he has all Kxs combos as an aggro 5/10 player opening to $15 from MP. His flop sizing also indicated a willingness to call a raise if need be. If our read is this guy can show up with K2dd then that may push this closer to a fold. A made hand is likely going to bet the flop harder. He would have to show up with some really wonky combos like KJx to have enough bluffs in that case.
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Old 11-25-2018, 02:35 AM   #11
Matt98
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Re: 2/5 Sick spot with second nuts

6bet me - Which hands worse than T9dd, that I could realistically have, could he possibly be targeting for thin value? I'm not going to call flop with KJ, I'm not going to flat his open with AA or QQ. And considering how small his flop bet size was and how wet the flop was, I should basically never have 88, 77, or 87. I don't think there is any chance this is value worse than QJdd which is why I think it's close and definitely a potential spot for an exploitable hero fold. You may think it's a snap call in terms of GTO strategy, but I think it's definitely a close spot.
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Old 11-25-2018, 11:03 AM   #12
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Re: 2/5 Sick spot with second nuts

hand 1 seems like a trivial fold on the river

hand 2 seems like a trivial call on the river
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Old 11-25-2018, 11:23 AM   #13
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Re: 2/5 Sick spot with second nuts

ugh. that is a nasty spot. those 90 second tank jams are always so freaking nutty. especially against long term experienced players.

his line makes perfect sense for Kx diamonds, so it makes me really want to fold this.

so you only have to call like 370 more after he jams over your 150, right?

but since you line is so consistent with a made flush, and you block the second and third nut flushes, I think you have to fold this.

this would be a super fancy play if he just had the naked K diamonds and he thought that he was going to get you off of a flush. That is borderline insane.
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Old 11-25-2018, 12:57 PM   #14
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Re: 2/5 Sick spot with second nuts

Hero's stack is wrong somewhere; if we have ~$620 at the start, we don't have ~$520 remaining when V jams.

Our exact hand blocks every non-nut value hand V is likely to take this line with. He's opening from MP and is "high VPIP, aggro pre-flop"? If he can show up with garbage Kxdd, we can probably find a fold here. That's 7 combos of Kxdd, and I doubt he has a lot of bluffs into our obvious flush & sticky image. (Obv it's a different story if V is opening tighter and we lose to pretty much only KTdd.)
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Old 11-25-2018, 01:21 PM   #15
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Re: 2/5 Sick spot with second nuts

Quote:
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Hero's stack is wrong somewhere; if we have ~$620 at the start, we don't have ~$520 remaining when V jams.
Agree. There should only be about $370 left to call off which might make this an easier call? if my math was right we need to be right about 33% of the time.
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Old 11-25-2018, 01:59 PM   #16
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Re: 2/5 Sick spot with second nuts

Not a sick spot in my mind. This is snap call.

Flop is easiest raise of alltime. Need to deny equity to the field. Expect to win pot a lot on flop which is great outcome with $110 already in middle.

Raise also get values from worse. We got lucky nobody else came along for ride.

How come nobody has put 97dd, in this guy's range yet. Not likely given sizing on flop but anyone leading $20 into 5 guys has major leaks.


Hand 1

Why we raising to $50?
Why we calling river?
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Old 11-25-2018, 02:20 PM   #17
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Re: 2/5 Sick spot with second nuts

I’d expect 97dd to just keep betting turn. Doesn’t really make sense to overplay the hand that badly on the river.
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Old 11-25-2018, 02:28 PM   #18
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Re: 2/5 Sick spot with second nuts

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I’d expect 97dd to just keep betting turn. Doesn’t really make sense to overplay the hand that badly on the river.
You expect a guy donking 1/5 pot into 5 players to make sense?
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Old 11-25-2018, 02:34 PM   #19
Matt98
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Re: 2/5 Sick spot with second nuts

Mikko - Hand 1 was straddled with an UTG1 calling the straddle and yeah calling riv was bad.

Also for people saying math is wrong somewhere, it's the all in total. What I meant to say was V put me all in for 520ish total, not 520 more. I had to write this post twice so the second time I didn't skim through it to look for errors.
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Old 11-25-2018, 02:43 PM   #20
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Re: 2/5 Sick spot with second nuts

While I have you here I wonder what you think about a small spot I was in that caused me to chip down a bit.

UTG limp and I raise to 25 from UTG1 with AsKd. CO calls and V from main hand calls as well. This is after my KK hand vs V, and I won a big pot off CO with top set and didn't show when he folded river so I'd imagine he wants to see what I have.

BB, who is a 2/5 and 5/10 reg squeezes to 130. He has a stack over around 900 and I have a stack of exactly 900.

I look over at CO and BTN and they both look sickened and annoyed by the raise, so I decided to just flat call as opposed to 4-bet because I thought there was a very good chance that I was going to see a flop IP and HU.

CO and BTN did elect to fold.

Is this fine? And at what frequency should I be 4-betting AKo against Vs range here.
Flop comes T43ss he c-bets I fold.
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Old 11-25-2018, 02:49 PM   #21
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Re: 2/5 Sick spot with second nuts

Not a sick spot at all wtf? Imagine folding here.
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Old 11-25-2018, 03:09 PM   #22
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Re: 2/5 Sick spot with second nuts

Quote:
Originally Posted by KT_Purple View Post
hand 1 seems like a trivial fold on the river

hand 2 seems like a trivial call on the river
Pretty much the entire thread here.
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Old 11-25-2018, 03:18 PM   #23
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Re: 2/5 Sick spot with second nuts

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You expect a guy donking 1/5 pot into 5 players to make sense?
Well he didn’t donk considering he’s the PFR so yah I expect flush draws to make up a large portion of his c-bet range at this sizing.
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Old 11-25-2018, 03:52 PM   #24
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Re: 2/5 Sick spot with second nuts

Ya, guess technically he didn't "donk". It is cbet. Still sizing is bad. I don't expect him to be solid player with sizing like this.
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Old 11-25-2018, 03:59 PM   #25
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Re: 2/5 Sick spot with second nuts

Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt98 View Post
While I have you here I wonder what you think about a small spot I was in that caused me to chip down a bit.

UTG limp and I raise to 25 from UTG1 with AsKd. CO calls and V from main hand calls as well. This is after my KK hand vs V, and I won a big pot off CO with top set and didn't show when he folded river so I'd imagine he wants to see what I have.

BB, who is a 2/5 and 5/10 reg squeezes to 130. He has a stack over around 900 and I have a stack of exactly 900.

I look over at CO and BTN and they both look sickened and annoyed by the raise, so I decided to just flat call as opposed to 4-bet because I thought there was a very good chance that I was going to see a flop IP and HU.

CO and BTN did elect to fold.

Is this fine? And at what frequency should I be 4-betting AKo against Vs range here.
Flop comes T43ss he c-bets I fold.

Depends what I ate for breakfast, and gameflow. I likely average 50/50 split. With calling and 4 betting. If his range is wider than most. Then I am 4 betting mostly.

If I suspect he likes to squeeze light, then 4 betting 100%.

As played. Not folding this flop much. His board coverage is ****. And he doesn't hit this flop at all.

Last edited by mikko; 11-25-2018 at 04:15 PM.
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