V most likely has 88 or 99, but in game I would probably call. The rraise OTF means V does not have AK, AQ nor even AA. V would not raise pre witt 57 or 7T, so the only remaining range after flop action are 88, 99, JTs and maybe 77. I don't think 77 continues this way OTT and OTR, so we are weighing 88, 99 versus JhTh only. I guess rando AK could get there but I don't think so, unless you had a live read that the OTF rraise was spew/fluke. Thus => fold. That said, turn is prolly a fold for the same reasons.

Probably just have to go broke here. Some people raise 57s and T7s UTG (I certainly have). She could also be turning 89 into a bluff even though that seems unlikely.

I can see villain 3bet bluff raise QJs, KTs, ATs, A5s, and T9s(mainly gutshots) to balance out 66, 88, 99, and 98s value. Villain could then value/bluff 66, 88, 99/QJs, KTs turn and river. I say only call if you think villain could bluff or have hands that you beat, if not fold.

The ranges being described for this villain are batshit crazy.

So Villain doesn't know much about me, and she probably assumes I'm a typical 2/5 player -- a young white guy who isn't afraid to 3bet, whatever that means to her. She might think I'm a bit fishy after the previous observed hand. I probably should have mentioned all of this in my OP.

Anyhow, I think the crucial consideration for me here is that my hand looks a lot like a flopped set after I flat her turn bet. I don't think I've ever seen a player try to bluff another player off of a Full House.

I actually turned my hand over to try to get a reaction out of her, and then folded face-up. I know this is really bad for meta-game considerations, but whatever, I was in a state of shock. Villain was surprised and slightly annoyed at my fold, and flipped over AA (runner runner quads). I still don't understand her play on the flop here. I guess she thought I was a fish based on the previous hand, and thought she might get thin value from an overplayed TT/JJ?

I don't know if this is wrong, but my flop raising range doesnt include any overpairs here. I'm polarized to sets/two pairs/straight draws (partial frequencies of 67s,78s,77,JTs,QTs, ATs, though probably 67s and 78s aren't even in my preflop CO flatting range).

You will lose ton of money in your life if make a habit of calling 3! Flops/check raises and then folding on the turn just because of big bet pressure.

That turn card did nothing to change the hand other than allowing her to insert her foot up your asss with a big bet.

She was going to bet the turn AND RIVER come hell or high water no matter what cards dropped.
Grab your balls and call the river.. the only way you lose is set over set but unfortunately that’s just poker. Thankfully it’s a rare occurrence

Blah.

Pretty sure I know who V is.

Given all the action her range is pretty narrow, but as Doug Polk says, “don’t fold sets”. The only realistic things she should have here is 99/88, that’s 6 combos. If she can donkey off with 2 hands. Just 2 hands, this is a call. I have a hard time folding in this spot because 2/5 Vs, even good ones, spazz some % of the time. 2 combos. That’s all she needs to do.

Ironically, after seeing this hand it makes me want to call her down more in the future. Her 3-bet on the flop is pure spew and shows she's very capable of overplaying hands. If she hadn't hit the A was she still planning to stack off here?

some people play over pairs for stacks regardless of board or action. part of the reason i am not folding a set here and kind of like the idea of re rasising flop as a i am not happy about it but committed to this frickon hand bet.

Think it’s a fold. We need to be good about 25%. Let’s say she bluffs 98s, that’s only two combos. She then has 99, 88 which is 6 combos. The problem is she is more likely to play her sets as a 3 bet and bet the river than her 98. So we need her to be capable of doing this with TJs.

There are some crushers in my game I probably find a call against, but not too many. We shouldn’t be flatting too many suited connectors pre vs UTG+1, should mostly 3 bet or fold, so our river range should be pretty set heavy.

Just saw the results. I almost put AA in her value range but you described her as very good tag so I discounted it. Pio does 3 bet some overpairs on the flop but I don’t know if it would do it on this flop, with AA which benefits far less from protections than other overpairs, and at this stack depth. And then even if Pio is doing it, doing it live a whole different story. IP should probably attack cbets somewhat aggressively here but I doubt many people live are actually attacking cbets enough for OOP to be incentivized to 3 bet its overpairs.

3bet this flop with AA seems pretty horrendous imo. As bad as that is, taking that line with any Ax would be exponentially worse so you can rule out her showing up with pie in the sky hands like AK/AQ.

Even if you discount AA on the flop, once she bets the turn hard her range is almost exclusively [AA/99/88]. JTs just calls flop when you have every set and likely all T7s/75s straights.

Not 100% certain of this because I lost my PIO subscription, but solvers often recommend hands like A9s,TT,JJ be raised some % of the time on the flop against PFR, but if I remember correctly this is usually for the OOP player. Therefore a 4bet with an overpair might make sense in theory. But personally I'm never 3betting merged here, and so her 4bet is spew.

I strongly considered folding turn, but I couldn't bring myself to make such a significant exploit. I have hands like JTs and 77 that will want to give up turn. Folding a set here felt yuck. Maybe worrying too much about exploitability in 2/5 is a leak in my game.

After this hand, Villain said "I can't believe you folded, I could have had AK", which makes me think she's either spazzy in big pots or is totally unaware of her own ranges.

3bet AA OTF looks horrible to me too, but I am very interested in the assertion that PIO might have that as a 3bet. Can anyone elaborate?

Great hand discussion.

Same here although I wonder if it would only want to do it with hands like JJ/TT that are more connected to the board.

Or just lying.

My friend and I have this conversation freq. He believes, as you do, that if the river is a blank then if you called the turn, you have to call the river. I vehemently disagree. You have more information on the river. If villain fires again, you can more narrowly define their range you also can maybe pick up on a sizing or timing tell.
As far as this hand, it’s a sick spot. I’m going to ponder it for awhile

the more i think about it, the less i think the flop 3! is indicative of a set. it's a crazy small bet. who does that with a set on this wet of a board? it's more of a 'see where i'm at bet', she risks a little bit, if you 4! she probably tells herself that she will fold (narrator: she wont).

whether or not she has AK there, it's debatable, but it's just going to be an argument with no end. i think you played the hand well.

What people say they theoretically do and what they actually do are very different.

Good fold.