Villain's betting line is entirely consistent with a thought process of "well, that's too good of a board for me to fold my overpair. Pot is too big for me to fold, so I might as well shove." That thought process is going to be slightly more likely given that you're new to the table and already folded to a big bet bluff.
He could be doing this with TT, 44, 22, sure. But he could also absolutely be doing it with KK/QQ/JJ. Your reads need to be incredibly precise to make this laydown. Based on the thin reads provided, I think you have to lean towards a call.
It's a $300 mistake to fold to a range of AA,KK,TT,44,22.
It's around a $50-$100 mistake to fold to that range if Low-Jack is also gonna come along with a range of TT+,44,22.
Thanks for putting some math on this. It's even more of a mistake than that IMO, since while for sake of argument I'll say V plays all his TT this way and never plays JJ-QQ this way, he almost certainly does not have all the combos of 44 and 22.
