An UTG raise is pretty strong, its not like you are raising from the BTN.
So his shove is most likely going to be 99+, AK, AQ
against this range we have roughly 44%
remove the 99 and we drop to 40% equity
.
If we widen his range to include AJ and 88 then we are at 50%...
We raise 20, V ships it 155 and is fairly new-ish to the table. I'm 100% fine with a fold here. Vast majority of the time the "best" we can hope for is to be up against two overs. Now, if this was his 3rd or 4th ship within an hour, then you can make a better case for calling with TT. But since he is new to the table, and this is his first ship AND we raised from UTG... I'm 100% fine with a fold here given we've only vested $20 and he overship the pot significantly at we are probably a 40% dog vs his range.
So yeah, this is a ho-hum-shrug-fold.
Obviously depends on what you range V for. But I think even if we are optimistic with our ranging, we are too close to 0EV for me to want to shove for $155 when I only bet $20.
Or put another way, I'm not a big fan of big bets in 0EV breakeven spots when I hardly have any money vested at all. I mean, if we are talking a $1k pot and we have $200 behind and are facing a 0EV decision, that is one thing. But on the reverse side of that, I don't like being on the small end of a pot facing a HUGE bet merely to "hope" to breakeven in a 0EV spot. So whenever that is the situation, I'm a big fan of just shrug folding. And I think this is definitely a ho-hum shrug fold without a second thought.
Again, back to ranging, if you put us at 50% equity then meh, we do have the math to make the call. But if you weigh the scale to us being a 40% dog, then meh, too close to 0EV for me to feel like calling his shove.
Last edited by dgiharris; 04-30-2014 at 07:36 PM.