2/5 SFD - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

Two Plus Two Forums Poker Strategy Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash

2/5 SFD

Post Reply Subscribe

...

10-04-2014 , 09:31 PM

Scarf Ace

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 66

Hero(CO)($480): Early 20s. Just sat down 30 minutes ago, haven't played a hand.

Villain(SB)($500): In his late 60s, plays a passive game pre flop, very straight forward post. Villain plays like most older guys in south florida.

Hand in question: 3 limps to hero who is in the CO with Q

and raises to $35.

Villain calls, one limper calls.

Flop: 10

Hero bets $75
Villain raises to $200 pretty quickly.

Hero?

Quote

10-04-2014 , 09:37 PM

Li0n

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 155

Fold

Quote

10-04-2014 , 09:44 PM

Garick

Oberbiergenießer

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 26,514

Bleh. I hate folding a SFD, but... we have no FE here. This V is never raising/folding here. He has a minimum of an overpair, and usually a set. We have about 36% equity against his range, and if we shove and he calls (which he almost always will) we'll be paying 37% of the 995 pot. It's not a huge mistake, and if he ever folds I guess it's actually correct, but I just fold it when this kind of player gets aggro.

Quote

10-04-2014 , 10:50 PM

Scarf Ace

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 66

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garick

After reflecting on the hand and running it through an equity calculator I realized my mistake. Like you said against a range of sets, JJ, QQ, KK,AA I'm in bad shape. I also think he raises pre with AA, QQ, and JJ, QQ, are pretty unlikely. Its probably only a set and he's never folding.

I ended up shoving and got called a set of twos :/

Thanks for the input!

Quote

10-04-2014 , 11:09 PM

Garick

Oberbiergenießer

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 26,514

The good news is that you had 34.75% equity against a range of sets only (I also left AA and KK out of my original estimate when I got 36%, though I did put in a couple of combos of JJ). That means you only payed 2.25% too much, so it was only a $22.38 mistake. I know that it feels worse than that, but that's the extra above your equity that you payed to shove.

Quote

10-04-2014 , 11:24 PM

Scarf Ace

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 66

Definitely a better way to look at it

Lesson learned though.

Quote

10-05-2014 , 12:13 AM

Ranma4703

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 3,099

$380 in the pot and you need to call 125 to see the next card? Flat and stack him if you hit, call if he gives you odds on the turn

Quote

10-05-2014 , 12:26 AM

Scarf Ace

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 66

I don't think putting roughly 50% of my stack and then folding is ever good?

Quote

10-05-2014 , 01:32 AM

oldschool_vegas

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 563

I could see him showing up and raising with QQ, JJ, TT, 88, 22, AT, T8 and K8cc here. I don't see many non-aggressive players raise their FD or SD. If you haven't seen him do that, then you must assume you're crushed here and you must fold.

Quote

10-05-2014 , 12:39 PM

#10

11t

Bo Pelini's #1 Fan

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 31,420

Ship it in and win a coin flip or 60/40

Quote

10-05-2014 , 12:47 PM

#11

11t

Bo Pelini's #1 Fan

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 31,420

Folding here is meh imo, you are calling 370 to win 190 (what is in the pot after he calls your flop bet) + 370 (your remaining stack) = 560

Versus a range of only sets we have 42% equity in the pot and we have pot odds of 40% and this presumes perfect knowledge so if he ever has KK/AA it is a snap stack off and print money.

Quote

10-05-2014 , 12:49 PM

#12

11t

Bo Pelini's #1 Fan

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 31,420

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garick

Your math is wrong

Quote

10-05-2014 , 01:24 PM

#13

Garick

Oberbiergenießer

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 26,514

No idea where you are getting 42% equity. Are you forgetting that our SD is only a gutshot?

Quote:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

8,910 games 0.000 secs 1,782,000 games/sec

Board: Tc 8c 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.747% 34.75% 00.00% 3096 0.00 { QcJc }
Hand 1: 65.253% 65.25% 00.00% 5814 0.00 { TT, 88, 22 }

Also not sure where you are getting pot odds of 40%. When we shove, we are putting in $370 more (our 480 stack, less the 35 pre and 75 we've already put in OTF). The pot total (ignoring rake and blinds as basically canceling out) is $1005. $370 is almost exactly 37% of that.

My math is a tiny bit off because I forgot about the $5 each from the 2 limp/folders, but much closer than yours, afaict.

Quote

10-05-2014 , 01:40 PM

#14

11t

Bo Pelini's #1 Fan

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 31,420

Pro poker tools but you are right I think this website is having a seizure I thought the 42% was high but I trusted the site but I'm running other simulations and it's returning nonsense

Quote

10-05-2014 , 04:04 PM

#15

Cheers4Booze

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 143

If it's wrong to continue here, should we be checking behind OTF?

My inclination is to c-bet most flops when HU or 3-way with initiative and position, but if it's only to bet/fold with ~35% equity, why not check behind?

Obviously our action is opponent dependent and we're not always being raised here, but in a low SPR pot vs. an unknown and a fit-or-fold V, I would presume the latter's action to be raise or fold in response to our cbet, and if we're not continuing against that action it seems like burning money to bet.

Quote

10-05-2014 , 04:20 PM

#16

Garick

Oberbiergenießer

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 26,514

Why is it burning money to c-bet? He usually folds, which we love, as he has a ton of equity we'd like to fold out. Less often, he calls, which is fine. We have a lot of equity and some nice IOs when he calls. Only time it sucks is when he raises, which will not be common. Even then, we almost have the right odds to GII.

Quote

10-05-2014 , 10:32 PM

#17

au4all

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 2,872

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garick

We could probably bet 1/2 to 2/3rds pot if we needed to bet. It's not a flop that tends to hit a pre-flop raiser's range. It's a flop that tends to hit a caller's range, so we should be less likely to continuation bet.

I'd probably bet 45 about 60% to 75% of the time. I'd pretty much never bet 75 unless I had the nuts and I was sure that if Villains were calling they'd call any sized bet.

I think making a huge continuation bet and then folding after getting a really good flop is pretty bad.

Quote

10-06-2014 , 11:40 PM

#18

oldschool_vegas

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 563

Looking at the calcs, if the villains range is more than sets, then shoving is always correct.

Like if his range is QQ-TT,88,22 we have an amazing 41% equity and as Garick correctly points out, we have 37% of our money int he pot, so shoving is correct. I don't know how garick came out with only 37% pot equity, but if I run the above range through equilab, I get 41%.

I think with the various villains out there, shoving here is probably the best move, unless we know the villain only does this with a set, and I don't know any villains who repop only with sets....

I really liked this post as it made me think a lot about the fundamentals. Thank you.

Quote

Post Reply Subscribe

...