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2-5 Set - Bet or Check River 2-5 Set - Bet or Check River

12-02-2013 , 08:00 PM
$2-$5

Player Info:

Villain: In MP with about $800. He is an older player who plays very tight, rarely raising preflop, however he is a solid player. He typically plays $5-$10 when the game is running

Irrelevant V: In MP with $325 - seems to be weak

Hero: In LP with $1000. I've been playing pretty solid, and tight. I've played with Villain a few times before and he probably gives a decent amount of respect. Despite playing mostly tight one of the few hands I did show down was Kd5d on a flushed diamond board so he knows I'm not just playing big hands.

V2: In C/O with $900. He has been LAG, playing probably 60% of the pots

Preflop: Villain limps; Irrelevant V limps; I limp in LP with 22, and V2 raises to $25 - everyone calls

Pot: $102

Flop: A62

Villain bets out $45, Irrelevant V folds. ($147) Here I obviously considered raising with my bottom set because of the heart draw but I wanted to keep Villain in the hand, and considering he plays so tight/solid I felt a raise would scare him away, maybe even getting him to fold a big A. I also thought, if I just flat here maybe the LAG in the cutoff goes a little nutty and raises both of us. I decide to just flat and V2 folds.

($192)

Turn: 10

Villain checks. I bet $115 and after thinking for a minute he calls. Based upon this player's style I was a little concerned he had 66 here. 1010 was possible but I don't think he's betting out on the flop with 1010 and an A on board. I think AA is just about inconceivable because he would have 3 bet preflop. I think he could also possible have a big heart draw.

($422)

River: K

Villain checks. I started immediately thinking about how much I was going to bet here but then I started thinking if I was getting called by anything worse. I felt like if I bet any decent amount ($150+) he would fold AQ,AJ. He could call with AK/A10. Lastly, even though he river checked I felt 66 was still a possibility. My last thought was that if he had QJ and was drawing to a big flush he just hit the straight. I basically felt that to get called by a worse hand I'd have to bet $100 or so, and is that $100 really worth it on the chance he then shoves.

I'm interested to hear thoughts on the choice to flat the flop and check the river.
2-5 Set - Bet or Check River Quote
12-02-2013 , 08:15 PM
I don't mind the way u played the hand through the turn. One thing to consider is if u think the LAG will call on the flop with a big Ace even if u raise. If so, I think a raise is in order. If not, then a call is fine. River is definitely a bet/fold. I would bet around $225. There's tons of 2 pair combos he could have.
2-5 Set - Bet or Check River Quote
12-02-2013 , 08:31 PM
I think flop needs to be a raise. $45 into $102 nearly gives flush draws immediate odds. There's a lot of hands you'll get value from by raising. A lot of those hands you'll also not be able to get value from once either a flush hits (or misses if they're on the FD).

I think river is bet $200/fold. As played, stacks are plenty deep on the river to leave room for this. There are way more hands in his calling and raising ranges that we beat than beat us. I'm going to assume that V never check-raise bluffs river. Based on your description, I think that is a safe assumption.
A reasonable range for V to be calling or raising with here would be: 66, TT, QJhh, A6, AT. You're ahead of most the combos there, plus I think it's unlikely he checks river with a set or a straight here.
I think a lot of the time you'll be getting folds missed flush draws, but you should still be betting here if you're ahead of his call/raise ranges.
2-5 Set - Bet or Check River Quote
12-02-2013 , 08:32 PM
b/f 300

raise flop next time
2-5 Set - Bet or Check River Quote
12-02-2013 , 08:42 PM
Pre-flop and flop is good, flop is pretty dry so no need to raise here - only sucks if a heart comes on the turn and kills your action.

Should have bet more on the turn IMO, because we're trying to get as much of our stack in by the river as possible - pot was $192, could have bet more like $135 - he'll call anything with A6, AK and big heart draws but nothing with a pair weaker than the A. Then the pot would be $462 and he would only have $500 left.

Remember in this hand, it looks a lot like we have a draw, most made hands in our spot would have raised the flop to "protect against the heart draw" - but we're good players so we know there is no need to do this. It's likely the older gentleman doesn't have a strong 2 pair hand or set (such as AT or 66) because he'll be scared of the heart draw and want to protect against a "bad beat" - he would be betting alot into you at this point. He's gone into check/call mode on the turn, which means in this situation we need to value bet our strong hands and avoid bluffing.

So when the river basically bricks off (the K is a good card for you because AK just improved) we need to be value betting the **** out of bottom set. In your case bet $300 because missed draws will call nothing and 2 pair hands will call anything thinking that you missed your heart draw. He doesn't have a set of 66's here.
2-5 Set - Bet or Check River Quote

      
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