2/5, 8 handed. Been a some big pots on the table (up to 2k) but none as potentially large as this. Early Saturday night.

Villain: large Pakistani man, early 30's, very well dressed in jumper and shirt. Nice watch. Cuff links. handles himself in a very composed manner. Bought in for a neat 2k and put another two 500 chips in his pocket when sitting down. Has won 2 big pots with AA and AK vs 2 different fish (1 massive, 1 slight) and which were back to back, 2k each, and just after he sat down. This is about an hour later. Played solid since then. Plays like he knows what he's doing. Probably a winner in poker and in life.

Hero has not played any significant hands since villain sat down (been drained a bit over past 1hr 30 from missing flops etc). Bought in for 500, tripled up quickly then been steadyish. TAG image.

Hero stack: 1700
Villain: 4000

Folds to Villain in SB who raises to 20, Hero in BB calls with A6


Flop (40) 1074
Villain tosses in a 25 chip, Hero calls
Turn (90) A
Villain bets 75, Hero raises to 225, Villain reraises to 625, Hero wishes he had flatted the turn and...

so gross

think i call

EDIT: against a range of only sets and 89hh, you have 25% and you're calling 400 to win 1340

i think you can bet small and squeeze some value if you do hit the nutflush on the river and squeeze out a tilt call or maybe even a tiltshove from the villain often enough to make this a call

Why raise? (I don't think I'm just being results oriented here.) I doubt you're folding out better and there aren't a lot worse to call. Your draw is strong, but doesn't make you a favorite. If the A is good enough to win, calling the turn and either calling or vbetting the river is better, no?

As played, you're getting 2.4:1 direct odds, with another 1000 behind. If he has a set, you're just barely getting the right implied odds if he'll stack off 100% when you hit, but you can't count on that, so you're not getting the right implied odds.

Against 2P, you're not in much better shape. Most of his 2P hands have an ace, so you're hoping to spike a 6, which is only good if he has A4.

I don't think combo draw holdings raised out of the SB pre.

I think this is a sigh fold.

Anyone else like to 3bet here pre flop?

I would've expected a chop preflop if it folded to the blinds 8-handed. Have we seen him chop before? Did anyone suggest it?

Without knowing more, I'd assume this is a set 95% of the time, and I'm skeptical that you're getting paid off on the river, pretty sure this is a fold

If you are going to raise anywhere, raise flop.

Didn't actually register this was BvB on my first read through.

It depends on whether V normally chops. I'm assuming it wasn't mentioned or hadn't been routine up until this point (perhaps because this was the first time that day it had ever been folded to the blinds).

Assuming a default assumption of no chop, I actually think a 3b pre is a good move. SB's range could be very wide. A6s is a good hand to 3b light with and may well be ahead of what V raises with. We can easily get away from a 4b. If it's called, we have a good chance to win it with a cbet on the flop.

No chopping in this casino

I would have a raise-heavy strategy on this flop, and I think A6/A5 are the best NFDs to raise the flop with (they sacrifice the least amount of showdown/marginal equity value while having backdoor straight outs that give us more good turns to work with but are too crappy to help us in big pots when we flat). All of the A9hh- hands are pretty similar, though, and AJs+ generally 3!s preflop, so mixing in flats is totally fine too, especially against this sizing.

Turn raise is bad. Your hand is good easily good enough to play for cheap showdown and not nearly good enough to raise for value.

As played, just flat and see a river.

Actually, I'm rethinking raise-heavy strategy on this flop. Given the 4bb open, we don't have a range advantage when it comes to made hands OTF, and most of our advantage comes from a dynamic flop IP with large stacks. A float-heavy strategy where we raise an 9/8/6/3 turn can be really powerful here, so maybe A2hh/A3hh should take first priority for raising here.

Regardless, I'm splitting hairs as I would still play a mix with all of the NFDs.

Well raising this turn is bad. Seems like you did this cuz "I have top pair and the NFD blind vs blind" but didn't really consider what worse would call and what better would fold. It can, however, put you in tough spots like this one where you're likely to make mistakes.

Grunch.

I'd rather raise the flop than the turn. As played, call given odds, BvB, and bink a heart. If he checks a blank river, I think I just check behind.

Grunching ...

As played, fold. We don't have enough equity to continue vs. the top of his range. Besides, we aren't fishy and an even $400 on top of our 3x raise suggests to me we are well behind.

Pre - I'm 3betting a good amount of the time in this spot.

Well played until you know where.

As for the 3-bet pre part of the discussion, if we 3-bet this hand pre then what does our flatting range look like? We need to split our range into folds, flats, and 3-bets. 3-betting this hand is not a bluff, and it's extremely thin for value if is value at all. IMO we should be 3-betting polarized and flatting everything in the middle.

Flop i'd prefer a raise since we have a lot of equity, deep stacks, and potential to make him fold better either here or as the hand progresses. I don't plan on calling a solid player down here with A6 high so i'd rather be bluffing.

No point in raising the turn. Raising as a bluff rarely makes him fold better, flatting allows us to bluffcatch, bet thin on the river, and we get to realize our equity for the cheapest when we are behind and he decides to b/3b. As played, you backed yourself into a math problem. Assign the ranges and his fold to 4 bet/pay you off on flat and flush river/you have the best hand frequencies, do the ev calcs, and get your decision.

I think i'm raising the flop here this deep almost always. We don't have to worry too much about getting 3bet OTF since we're so deep in position with a nut draw, if he 3bets us with a set or 2pair OTF I'm fist pump calling and stacking off when we hit.

Raising the turn is not correct for a couple reasons. We pick up top pair with no kicker which is hardly a reason to raise. We aren't getting any worse hands to call, and we're not getting any better hands to fold (The only 2 reasons for raising). After calling flop we have to call this turn and probably fold to a blank river if he bets big.

I agree with raising flop, not because this is a gross spot, but because you'll learn if he has 10x or better for less with decent equity. If he calls and the ace hits, he might even check, giving you a free card from which you can get value from OTR in the event that you miss the hearts.

Just call turn we don't get any value from a check raise. Better calls, worse folds, and we reopen action for his nutted hands.

+1