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Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

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Old 09-02-2019, 10:48 AM   #1
maka2020
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2/5 rivering a straight in a big pot, what's the best bet size?

Villain in this hand is a weak player - never folds a pocket pair preflop until it's like over $150 to go, often cold calls 3bets OOP. Very weak postflop, but is able to fold relatively big hands when he's deep and facing a lot of aggression.

Effective stack in this hand is ~$1500.

6-handed, Hero has JJ.

Preflop:
V opens from UTG for $15, folds to Hero, Hero 3bets to $55 from CO, folds to V, V 4bets to $160, Hero calls.

Flop ($325): QT4
V checks, Hero checks.

Turn ($325): 9
V bets $125, Hero raises to $400, V calls.

River ($1125): K
V checks, Hero ?

What do you think about the turn raise, but most importantly, what is the best sizing on the river? Should I go for a big size, hoping he won't let go of his aces? But as I said above, I think he is actually able to fold aces, given the river is very scary for that hand. Don't know about kings as he seems to pay more attention to the absolute strength of his hand than anything else. Is a small, exploitative bet better?

Last edited by maka2020; 09-02-2019 at 11:12 AM.
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Old 09-02-2019, 11:10 AM   #2
sixsevenoff
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Re: 2/5 rivering a straight in a big pot, what's the best bet size?

Pre I'm ok with 3 betting or just flat calling.

Why would you ever even think about raising the turn? We have a lot of SDV and Idk wtf ever continues that's behind. As played, super easy river jam.
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Old 09-02-2019, 11:17 AM   #3
maka2020
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Re: 2/5 rivering a straight in a big pot, what's the best bet size?

Quote:
Originally Posted by sixsevenoff View Post
Pre I'm ok with 3 betting or just flat calling.

Why would you ever even think about raising the turn? We have a lot of SDV and Idk wtf ever continues that's behind. As played, super easy river jam.
Well, I thought itís clear that I turned my hand into a bluff on the turn.
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Old 09-02-2019, 11:21 AM   #4
sixsevenoff
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Re: 2/5 rivering a straight in a big pot, what's the best bet size?

Quote:
Originally Posted by maka2020 View Post
Well, I thought itís clear that I turned my hand into a bluff on the turn.
I would hope you weren't doing that with the intention of it being a value bet. We might be good and are getting close to correct odds to draw.
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Old 09-02-2019, 11:32 AM   #5
V3ttz3ao
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Re: 2/5 rivering a straight in a big pot, what's the best bet size?

If he has AJcc and 4! that pre we gotta live with it some other possible combos are AA combos, KK and AKs/o without the Ks... If he is as weak as you state then I doubt V has any mixed in small nut flushes now given he kept just calling your big raise to $400... could be a set of T's or Q's he played horribly... I'm basing this off of V being weak, a really good player might have 87cc or ss here and if it's the spades we are in rough shape

Hard to figure what villain could have that isn't AA or KK honestly...

Bet $325 and be prepared to call a shove. If he tosses over AJ or a flush after jamming, we throw up in a garbage can (especially since we block the flush with one spade)... I chose $325 (about 29% when you do that math) since it's a nice even number at table for chips and you would be giving him 4.5-1 on a call... Expect him to him and haw for a bit and say "I'm priced in, I have to call here with this hand" then you get paid

You might miss some value with that bet, but I feel that gets paid more frequently across the widest range of villains. Especially if he is capable of letting a hand go like you said. Here you need to make money but also you want to hear the "ugh, I have to call getting those odds speech"

We are also giving him the opportunity to make a massive blunder if he jams to try to win it. He is never calling our jam, he will likely call our $325, hopefully he makes the error we baited him into by coming back over the top after our $325.
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Old 09-02-2019, 11:44 AM   #6
maka2020
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Re: 2/5 rivering a straight in a big pot, what's the best bet size?

He never has AJs or suited connectors here, he always flats the 3bet with these. He’s just playing too simple preflop. The only “bluffs” he might have preflop are small pocket pairs, because he just loves them (he 4bet me with 66 twice in the past).

I agree that a small, probably very unbalanced bet on the river would get the job done. In the actual hand, I was greedy and shoved the river, and he obviously folded.

Last edited by maka2020; 09-02-2019 at 11:51 AM.
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Old 09-02-2019, 03:23 PM   #7
mdelore
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Re: 2/5 rivering a straight in a big pot, what's the best bet size?

Why are you turning JJ into a bluff on the turn against a probable range of QQ+? I get your read is that he would fold but these guys eventually put their foot down especially when they 4bet.

AP pretty standard shove and hope he has a set. AA is going to find a fold here to the smallish bet sizes imo.
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