Villain is a good reg.
We have played a lot against each other, but we normally just stay out of each others way.



$2-$5

$15 CO QTo
Recreational player flats on the button
SB folds
Good reg calls BB

$47

J66 rainbow

I cbet $25 and BB calls

$97
7 rainbow
Check, Check

River Q

Check
I bet 70
He raises to 210

Fold pre.

You put yourself in the position to where you now have to make a tough decision. You really want the other guy in that spot.

Weird spot. Do you have any info on his checkraise tendencies in general?

The case for calling is that a Q is at the top of our range here, so if we're folding our Qs what are we calling? V could plausibly have something like 88 and have decided to turn it into a bluff.

The case for folding is that checkraise bluffs are rare, especially in random spots like this, and if he was suspicious of the river bet he could always just flat. In view of the check call on the flop it's extremely unlikely he doesn't have a bluffcatcher at the very least, so to checkraise his thought process would need to be that he thinks you have top pair and he's going to get you off it by checkraising. That's not something that a lot of LLSNLers are capable of.

I think I'm going to call when I have AQ, just so I have some calls in my range, and muck everything else. It could be right to just fold everything though.

When I think about it, you're probably checking back overpairs on the turn as well, as going for three streets seems like overplaying it. So QT actually seems a fair way down in your range.

+1 The bet for value was a mistake, imo. BB being a good reg only makes it worse. You have to fold, even granting that BB may have a bluff here sometimes (but not often).

Value bet was fine imo, we have lots of bluffs available here so we can balance out a lot of value bets.

You have played alot together? Then give us some info. We are practically readless.

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Don't like the "value bet" either. Not sure what we're targeting. Jx that checks back turn or 88-99 that was very passive pre. Both very thin for being top candidates. Anything worse is too much hope for this sizing.

I also like the value bet as I think we can still get value from hands like J9s (3 combos), JT (6 combos), KJ (12 combos) and AJ (12 combos) and we might even be able to get hands like 88-TT to make a thin call. However, I don’t like the 70% PSB on the river as I think a lot of the hands mentioned for V will fold to that sizing. Therefore, I believe I’d prefer a bet of like $35 on the river to get a crying call from the hands I mentioned.

I feel like if I reposted this hand with us having KT instead of QT, the replies would be an avalanche of people saying they don't like the bluff because BB obviously has Jx and will call. If you don't like the value bet, you should be absolutely in love with bluffing in this spot, since there are not many hands better than a jack that BB can play like this. The response "But he'll checkraise our bluffs" doesn't help, since in that case you should want to bet with QT and call the checkraise.

It’s funny that most of the comments/responses are geared towards OP’s bet on the river as opposed to what to do now that he’s been check raised and needs to be right 40% of the time for this to be profitable.

I’m not a fan of the river bet if we know the villain is a good player because he can either fold a worse hand or check raise. Usually don’t think it’s a +EV move

As for what to do now, I️ think there’s two main possibilities. He has A6 or K6, something super strong or he’s bluffing. There are some other important hands to consider - QJ, AQ (for value; but I️ think this would be a weird play). 22-TT (turning a hand into a bluff). 77 should be on the radar but that’s monster-hunting.

I️ really feel like he’s making a play here. The size of the raise shows he’s either going for value or trying to maximize his fold equity. And if he’s a good player, and he has a great hand, he’s going to WANT you to call with AQ when he has trip 6’s. I️t is a great raise for maximal value but I️t just seems suspicious. Check/call, check, check/big raise.

There are so many hands he can be doing this with that you beat. You are also blocking a queen. Furthermore, the board is dry and a board pair which mobilizing bluff oriented thinking. Sack up and make the call!


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This is attributing magical powers to BB. The Q is a better card for our range than his (because queens are contained in a lot more hands that c-bet than hands that check call on J66r). Moreover, it actually hit us, so our hand figures to be better than his on average. There's something wrong if we can't value bet when a card gives us a range advantage over our opponent plus we actually have a hand that is better than his range.

The only way it might not be a bet is if BB calls far too infrequently, meaning that we should be exploiting him by bluffing more and value betting less. No indication from what we're told about BB that that is true though.

I’m not totally against betting. I️ think it’s close? If we have showdown value, then we bet to get value from an inferior hand.. (your thoughts?)
his hand is even more inferior on river if he has a low pocket pair. hence, decreasing our chance of extracting value. Just have to be ready for a potential check-raise and decision when betting on a river in this sort of hand. Are most players capable of doing this play at llsnl? hehll naw. I️ hate making “plays” at this level myself (working on incorporating I️t though)


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I don't think the objection "he won't call us enough" holds water. Like I said, if I reposted this with us having KT, I think most of the responses would be against bluffing. Our line doesn't look strong, it looks full of ****. Oh an overcard rivered, BET, it's like the most obvious bluff spot ever. I actually had to tone down my bluffing in this sort of spot because in my experience people are very suspicious of it. Maybe BB does fold most of his hands, that's a player tendency thing so I can't prove it, what I can say is that it's not possible for BB to do that without us being able to absolutely wreck him with bluffs. You either have to like a value bet in this spot or LOVE bluffing in it, not liking either is not an option.

You know what's going to annoy me, if we get to the end of this hand and it turns out "good reg" BB checkraised with a bluffcatcher and says "I thought you were bluffing" by way of explanation.

How deep are you? If eff stacks are like 1k, I absolutely love to jam it in his face. I think that would work almost everytime.

Normally it´s a shrug call though. We are too high in our range to fold imo, and the guy should be good enough to know he can rep low trips when defending the BB. I also don´t want him to know he can run us over.

pre is close but fine.
checking back river would be bad, i'd probably use a smaller sizing (50 or so) otr though. against his c/r otr probably fold, doubt he finds enough bluffs.

fold and get shown AT call and get shown 77

Saying to check the river is purely results oriented, IMO. I'd be astounded if OP had ended his post before his river bet and people suggested that he check.

We have the best hand like 80-90% of the time and should absolutely be betting for value.

Our overpairs should be going for 3 streets of value and are pretty unlikely to check the turn, so our range looks capped at QJ on the river. We definitely need to defend some Qx if we are worried about being exploited.

Still, I generally just give everybody credit here, including "good" players, because in order for them to be bluffing they need to be capable of turning second pairs into bluffs, which hardly anybody is live. If he had a pure float on the flop he probably would have just led the river. He has QJ+ almost always, maybe AQ sometimes.

Also,
100% this. Everybody bashes GTO concepts in LLSNL without realizing the value of understanding them. The best application is not necessarily so that we can play balanced, but to identify spots where our villains are imbalanced so we can exploit them. Since QT is a theoretical value bet against the range we expect BB to arrive at the river with, we must either value bet this hand or bluff very aggressively depending on how we expect him to react.

Exactly. Well put.

For those saying I should bet around $35... Would anyone bet $35 as a bluff here?

How deep are we?
I had around 550 before I bet $70.

I haven't seen him going for a check raise like this and we have played for months.
He is aggressive, but well balanced when it comes to bluffing.
He views me as aggressive and capable of bluffing in this spot, so this is a clear value bet on the river.
That said, I have not played overly aggressive against him in the past, so I have not given him any reasons to check raise this river for value.
He is probably aware that I'm capable of making big calls, but against him I have never made any sick calls.

I ended up calling and he had 64.

I regret my call.
If I ask myself: Is this a good spot to try and get a fold from Qx? That's very optimistic, and I wouldn't do it.

Do we need to call any Qx here to avoid being exploitable?
Probably not since people just aren't bluffing often enough in this spot.

you can´t have it both ways.

Yeah, if you haven't seen him running a checkraise like this before then just fold everything. The majority of players are not capable of this play as a bluff.

I believe I was the only one that said to bet $35 so I take it this question is directed at me. I would definitely bet 1/3 pot as a bluff here and I’ve done so many times against good V’s and gotten folds from better hands. I normally would not try this against a rec player though as the rec player just looks at the absolute dollar amount of the bet. He sees a small bet and just says screw it, it’s only $35, and calls. A good V a lot of times will look at the small bet and think “This bet sure is small. This guy must have a decent hand and he’s just betting small as he’s begging for me to call him.”. Against a rec player I would size my bet up when bluffing as that will tend to get more folds from marginal hands. This may sound exploitable but a rec player isn’t paying attention to anything at the table and they aren’t going to exploit you like a good player would.

River sizing is main issue and an easy b/f for this larger size.