$2/5 NL (10 handed)
A
B
C
Hero ($700) in the CO
V ($500) on the button
SB
BB

Hero's image: probably seen as nitty as I haven't played a hand in a long time at this table.
V's image: In the hour that I've played with him I haven't seen him play much but I remember from a past hand he is fairly passive. So, nitty and passive.

Hero is dealt Q J

A, B, and C all limp. Hero raises to $30, V calls on the button, C calls.

Flop ($100) A T 6

C checks, Hero bets $65, V calls, C folds.

The call from V worries me a little

Turn ($230) 8

Okay, a very helpful card. I now have a lot of outs to make a hand. V has $400 left. I can bet this board or check and hope to improve/bluff on the river depending on the action. I think for a few seconds after the turn is dealt and opt to check it and play it slower.

V bets $100 fairly quickly once I check to him. He only has $300 left so I don't think a check raise is appropriate at all. If I call I can only win $300 more from him and there is currently $330 in the middle so I'm getting good odds assuming I can win more on the river if I do hit one of my outs. Hero calls.


River ($430): T

Action?

Think you should've continued with the aggression on the turn...so if you hit your money card on the river, you can get your stack in. $140-$150 range sounds right to get him off a hand (which is not bad on the turn...not knowing river card of course) or by chance he does have a hand and calls, this sets you up nicely.

As played, you really don't have much info as to where you are on the river....think best course is to check/call river (would be a check/raise against aggressive type player). Betting here on the river would look pretty fishy and might make him fold an inferior hand....on the flip side, if he's by chance bluffing then let him continue the aggression.

check/shove turn.

[Not this --> As played. Smallish B/c on river -- $125. Never folding here.]

Edit: As played, smallish b/f on river -- $125.

Arrrrrrrrrr innnnnnnnn

If stacks were deeper it could be a b/f for like $275-$300.

Hand is well played to this point; I don't see much value in trying to get him to fold on the turn (via either a double barrel or c/r) when the majority of his range is Ax after his call on that dry flop. It's not like a nitty player is going to peel the flop with Tx or JJ and then fold turn; he'll just fold it on the flop. Now it's time to jam. I'm more pissed that the T might convince him to fold Ax than that it might give him a boat, but we gotta try!

So no one is scared he shows up with AT a lot?

When the river came I was excited it was a spade but sat there thinking about what he is calling me with.

IMO there is very little chance he has just a ten, so combos like 9T-KT are out of his range. I just don't see a player like him calling a big raise w/ that kind of hand and then calling my $65 flop bet with middle pair. Now that being said I think his range is AT, AK, AQ, and 66. I eliminated AJ since I don't think he'd bet 100 ott with it. I think he'd just check it behind, but whatever, we can include it in his range but I think it's far less likely than the other hands.

Does anyone think other hands belong in his range?

You cannot b/f, and check calling is aids. That is why we jam. As I said, deeper stacks, this would be a b/f. i.e., he very well could have a boat, but our only option is to bet. The only debatable thing imo is sizing but I like a jam for several reasons.

I get what you're saying, and in general it's a sound philosophy. I don't think it always applies, though. Answer these two questions for me:

What's he calling us with if we shove?

What's he betting with if we check?

Heh I'm actually attempting to engage Ava in this same debate in another thread (low stress strat questions), and I'm taking your position in that case but agreeing with him here. A nitty/passive villain is much more likely to call with Ax than to bet with it, and combinotorically that's the majority of his range, which is why I don't like checking here.

I probably open ship the turn.

Here's what I'm thinking

He's calling us with all boats and most of the time he's calling with AK combos. I think he's folding AQ and AJ combos to a shove.

All boats. Sometimes he bets AK combos. Less likely he bets AQ combos and even less likely he bets AJ combos. I think the % chance he bets those hands if checked to otr are:

~70% AK
~40% AQ
~5% AJ

400 into a 230 pot?

Yes.

I don't hate open shipping the turn but the stack sizes are a bit awkward, check/shoves tend to get looked up light but check/shoving is better than check/calling then shipping the river when you hit

If he never calls a shove with AQ/AJ but sometimes bets them then I agree that checking is better, but I question that assumption.

11t how much FE do you think you have with a c/ship OTT against a villain who always has at least TP here (obviously it would be different against a more aggro/competent villain who has floats in his range, but that doesn't seem to be the case here)? Maybe I'm underestimating how often people fold TP...

To open ship he needs to fold 66% of the time for direct profit then factored in with our equity he probably only needs to fold like 50% of the time to open ship. He needs to fold ch/ship like 56.5% then combined with our equity he probably only needs to fold like 45% to show a direct profit.

I mean the BDFD is pretty disguised with our straight draw and if we were deeper I think its a pretty good spot to triple barrel, although Axx is generally not only my list of triple barrel boards because people don't fold.

I'd say open shipping > check/shipping > bet/calling > check/calling

Is your contention that he folds TP+ >45% of the time to a c/ship, or that even given our read that he's nitty/passive his range is not limited to TP+ when he bets the turn?

my contention is we aren't going to get paid off very often when we hit since the cards that hit our range aren't going to hit his range and he is checking behind a large % of the time OTR and I mean his most likely holding is like AXs and the 8s on the turn puts a lot of random draws on the board that he would want to protect against but he might be too nitty to call a ch/ship with A2s.

I mean I think all of the top 3 have a lot of merit, I kind of like betting 100 OTT and a big scary "300" bet OTR but if he ships we are only getting 2:1 and I don't think we have enough equity to call it off so I'd prefer to just ship or ch/ship and try to get some FE.

c/ship seems worse than c/f to me if we have to get him to fold 45% of the time, but I might be way off base here. Wouldn't be the first time.

I assume you think c/c is better than c/f?

if you check/fold here you should just mail me your bankroll at like 20 cents on the dollar

but I mean if he doesn't have a wide stabbing range (AXs, lot of random TX hands he is floating with) then yeah check/shipping is pretty bad but then it is should we open ship or bet (pot commit)/call although I might be ch/folding if we whiff the river

Oh I definitely wouldn't c/f; I was just saying that it seems better than c/ship. c/c was my preference when I read the OP but I'm intrigued by the possibilities of open ship or b/c.

ITT: Lots of people suffering from horrible MUBS

This is somewhere between a shove and a bet/call based on how much Hero thinks V will call. With stacks this short, b/f is unthinkable.

Sent from my SPH-D700 using 2+2 Forums

You realize that most of the line discussion is referring to the turn and not the river, right?

open shipping seems a solid choice, and definitely not something i would have considered ott myself.

since the majority of his range is Ax, and he is a fairly passive opponent who probably isn't raising without a premium hand, is there any merit to betting small like 75-80 and pricing yourself in? probably not, but i like this better than c/c.

if all Ax hands excluding AK and possibly AQ are folding to a ship ott, then i can see how this is a solid option.

but don't forget to balance your overbet shipping range ott with some strong made hands as well

I like the idea of open shipping turn here.

Turn is the only opportunity for us to maximize our fold equity and get villain to fold TP type of hand. Given the awkward stack size, There is no purpose in betting 1/2 pot or check raising if our objective is to get villain to fold.

Furthermore, pot equity is decent when called. Open ship turn would be my choice of play here.