2/5 -River Sizing in 3bet pot - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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2/5 -River Sizing in 3bet pot

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10-21-2018 , 01:19 PM

ralphykid67

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 438

Hero is eff stack of about $700 here. Open $20 UTG with JJ. Villain in MP 3bets to $60. I flat and we're HU to a flop:

652r - Pot $120

Check and villain continues for $75. Call.

Turn Kx

Check check.

River Jx - Pot ~$270

Hero?

No reads on villain. He's a reg but I haven't faced him before. I just started dabbling at 2/5 at this venue so I expect to see a lot of him in the future if I play this stake.

After he checks back turn I don't expect to get value from many hands left in his range. I'm thinking a small bet ~$100 is probably best to target calls from QQ and possibly hero calls from worse.

Thanks

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10-21-2018 , 01:52 PM

devnull2

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2018 Posts: 109

I think it depends on the V. JJ is at top of end of range here (only better hand is KK), if we get to river like this. If V can hand read, he will realize that you have played this like a 99, TT, 77, sometimes KQ. Then, he would bet a hand like QQ, AA, AK, AJ (AK and AJ are unlikely as he would have bet the turn with AK, we have blockers for AJ) for value and turn everything into bluff.

On the other hand, this is a 3-bet pot. Betting small that looks like a blocking bet and let V do something crazy.

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10-21-2018 , 02:24 PM

wj94

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 7,951

$300

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10-21-2018 , 04:30 PM

devnull2

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2018 Posts: 109

Quote:

Originally Posted by wj94

$300

why?

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10-21-2018 , 04:40 PM

johnnyBuz

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Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 7,563

Ship. He’s either got KK and you’re getting felted or he’s got AK and you stack him.

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10-21-2018 , 04:56 PM

ralphykid67

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 438

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnyBuz

Ship. He’s either got KK and you’re getting felted or he’s got AK and you stack him.

Ummmm no.

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10-21-2018 , 04:58 PM

devnull2

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2018 Posts: 109

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnyBuz

Ship. He’s either got KK and you’re getting felted or he’s got AK and you stack him.

Why would he check with either of them on the turn?

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10-21-2018 , 05:11 PM

wj94

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 7,951

Quote:

Originally Posted by devnull2

Why would he check with either of them on the turn?

People check AK on the turn all the time here

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Originally Posted by devnull2

why?

For value obviously. V is going to check back hands like AQ/QQ/TT anyway and might fold AK/KQ/AA to a c/r, but a lead for $300 looks kind of bluffy and doesn't make much sense unless you have JJ exactly, so it's a good thing that you do.

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10-21-2018 , 05:19 PM

devnull2

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2018 Posts: 109

Quote:

Originally Posted by wj94

People check AK on the turn all the time here

Doesn't make much sense checking AK in position here. I don't and why would people do that?

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I buy this. I think, this is a great hand in figuring out the balanced strategy, while getting most money.

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10-21-2018 , 05:22 PM

#10

AlanBostick

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Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 11,479

We've got bluffs in our range, don't we? Bet like we are bluffing, about pot-size or a little more. Something like $300.

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10-21-2018 , 05:23 PM

#11

wj94

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Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 7,951

Quote:

Originally Posted by devnull2

Doesn't make much sense checking AK in position here. I don't and why would people do that?

For deception, to induce a bluff, and because this is generally going to be a two street hand with AK anyway. How often are people paying off 3 streets with a PP on K high board in 3b pot? Not that often.

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10-21-2018 , 05:30 PM

#12

tmo1120

adept

Join Date: Aug 2018 Posts: 1,027

bet BIG here, psb or more, board is better for his range than it is for yours

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10-21-2018 , 05:35 PM

#13

johnnyBuz

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Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 7,563

Quote:

Originally Posted by devnull2

Why would he check with either of them on the turn?

Because it's the standard play and the best way to get action on the river. You are folding all of your one pair hands once he 3bets an UTG open, c-bets flop and double barrels a K turn.

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Originally Posted by ralphykid67

Ummmm no.

Um no what? Do you like value?

Last edited by johnnyBuz; 10-21-2018 at 05:40 PM.

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10-21-2018 , 05:36 PM

#14

ralphykid67

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 438

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlanBostick

We've got bluffs in our range, don't we? Bet like we are bluffing, about pot-size or a little more. Something like $300.

I like the idea of betting big here. But for discussions sake...

What hands do I have for bluffs here? I'm struggling to find any outside of AQs. I'm probably just check folding flop with any other non-pair hands that I defended pre. I guess I can have the occasional 89s where I had bdfd on the flop, but that's a bit of a reach. Even so that's only two hands. I'm not floating flop OOP with JTs, T9s for example. I'm not crazy about the idea of turning 99-TT into a river bluff either, for obvious reasons.

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10-21-2018 , 05:40 PM

#15

ralphykid67

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 438

Quote:

Originally Posted by wj94

Excellent points here. I'f I'm villain sitting here with AK I will be checking back turn often.

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10-22-2018 , 10:53 AM

#16

AlanBostick

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Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 11,479

If we have no bluffs in our river donking range, then we shouldn't have a river donking range.

Then the thing to do with our hand is check-raise, and balance it with bluffs, so that the villain is indifferent between calling and folding with the hands they bet.

What is the strongest hand we would check-fold here? A hand like 88 or 99? Check-raise with that as well as with JJ.

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10-22-2018 , 01:12 PM

#17

johnnyBuz

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Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 7,563

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlanBostick

Are you saying we don't have bluffs here or you're just operating on that assumption as outlined previously?

I would think whether we have bluffs or not depends on villain's tendencies, and since this is a readless spot we need to default to population reads.

If OP is sizing $100 to try to get hero calls from QQ- then I think just donking pot with our bluffs and shipping value is the best play.

And before people say "but that's exploitable he'll just call when you pot it and fold when you ship" ask yourself how often you'll run into this spot again? Likely not for hundreds and hundreds of hours if not longer and he still doesn't have the knowledge that you are donk potting a bluff since this is iteration #1.

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10-23-2018 , 08:45 AM

#18

AlanBostick

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Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 11,479

I suggested betting out for $300, like we would with a bluff. Another person responded that they couldn't find any bluffs in their likely range. I replied to that that if (you understand 'if,' right? It's called the conditional) we don't have any bluffs in our donking range, we shouldn't have value in our donking range either. I then described how to find bluffs in our check-raising range if (there it is again) we don't have a donking range.

Got it?

The underlying problem is that we are out of position. It's tough to extract value when we are out of position.

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