2/5 river raise part deux - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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2/5 river raise part deux

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03-10-2019 , 12:03 AM

snowmachineshopsit

newbie

Join Date: Dec 2017 Posts: 38

The second installment in my 2/5 river raise series featuring MGM NH:

1125 eff (V covers)
Hero HJ 22 to 15, V CO to 55, heads up

(117) 432ddd hero x/c 35
(187) 4x hero x/r 75 -> 250
(687) 9dddd hero 350, villain all in, hero?

I think jamming 750 is better in retrospect, but I really wanted a call in the moment...

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03-10-2019 , 12:08 AM

DK Barrel

Concept of the Week author

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 6,797

snaps it off? You lose to exactly 99 here. (or lol a5dd/65dd if V is a wizard). Meanwhile V can plausibly be value raising Adx.

Should be a fold pre to the 3b though

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03-10-2019 , 12:15 AM

snowmachineshopsit

newbie

Join Date: Dec 2017 Posts: 38

Why fold pre? Effective stack sizes are ideal, implied odds and committing only 5% of stack

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03-10-2019 , 12:17 AM

4_4

grinder

Join Date: May 2018 Posts: 604

Any reads on the CO? Age. Gender. Blood alcohol level?

Might fold to the 3bet. set mining oop is meh.

I like a big x/r otf.

AP, x/r a bit bigger to plan river better.

Shove river. AP... Idk. it's not a bluff. Not a fan of folding boats.

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03-10-2019 , 12:19 AM

DK Barrel

Concept of the Week author

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 6,797

Quote:

Originally Posted by snowmachineshopsit

Why fold pre? Effective stack sizes are ideal, implied odds and committing only 5% of stack

You're getting bad direct odds and are out of position and have to fold on almost every flop. Only way calling is justifiable is if V is some kind of barreling monkey and will put in three bets regardless of his hand or the board. Even then it would be close.

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03-10-2019 , 12:22 AM

snowmachineshopsit

newbie

Join Date: Dec 2017 Posts: 38

Irish, young reg, literally looks like Lex Veldhuis (what's up man, not sure if you're on here, lol)

Fairly aggressive/wide, showing down some hands in raised pots like A5o IP. Told me about a hand where OMC limper x/r river and he folded K8 on A88XK, so clearly capable of making big folds.

This jam is never a bluff imo, it's more about if this type of player is doing this with AAd or AKdd, which I suspect he is just calling with most of the time?

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03-10-2019 , 12:25 AM

DK Barrel

Concept of the Week author

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 6,797

v being aggressive is even more of a reason to fold a hand with mediocre equity and no postflop playability

I think you're projecting your mubs on other players too -- why is this line not plausible with AdKx or AdQx? How do you hit this board after calling a near 4x 3bet?

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03-10-2019 , 12:32 AM

snowmachineshopsit

newbie

Join Date: Dec 2017 Posts: 38

Thanks. So what kind of range would you be flatting and not 4! to this sizing OOP? And your general rule of thumb is to just fold small PP OOP to 3! ?

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03-10-2019 , 12:35 AM

RoadtoPro

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2019 Posts: 6,600

I would call pre as well since you guys are over 200BB effective. Even if villain isn't ever bluffing, it seems like you don't have a clear cut read on whether he would be overplaying a hand like AhAd or KhKd, so I think it's a call. I wouldn't expect to be good more than 50% of the time here but you only need to be good here 20~% of the time to call profitably here.

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03-10-2019 , 01:59 AM

#10

KID777777

adept

Join Date: May 2018 Posts: 869

Snap call AP
Only losing to rivered 99
Doubt V is 3betting 33,44

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03-10-2019 , 05:53 AM

#11

Minatorr

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2016 Posts: 5,235

fold pre.

implied odds is pretty trashy, unless V is an idiot he isn't auto stacking off on every board with an overpair or TPTK, and when you get oversetted/coolered you lose 200bb+.

22 has zero playability post, I'd start calling at 55+

ap not sure what the question is... snap call

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03-10-2019 , 03:36 PM

#12

snowmachineshopsit

newbie

Join Date: Dec 2017 Posts: 38

How is 55 significantly more playable post than 22 in this spot?

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03-10-2019 , 04:01 PM

#13

browni3141

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 5,678

55 is just a better hand. It flops straight draws slightly more often. It gets counterfeited slightly less often. He can have hands like A2s-A5s/54s etc. in his 3-bet range which 55 obviously performs better against.

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03-10-2019 , 04:08 PM

#14

krilleater

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 666

Easy snap call.

If he got lucky and rivered 99, good for him. Reload. As a population tendency, I don't expect many 3-bets with 99 anyways.

He has way more AdAx or AdKd than 99.

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03-10-2019 , 04:24 PM

#15

johnnyBuz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 7,563

99 seems like an auto 3bet to a $15 HJ open. Still snapping.

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