Quote:
Originally Posted by paperboyNC
Let's put a range on our opponent. I'll exclude AA and KK because he'd probably 4-bet pre.
Not necessarily in a HU situation, because 4-bet range is super narrow as you have implied.
Quote:
Originally Posted by paperboyNC
Possible Value Hands
AK (8 combos)
KQ (8 combos)
KT (6 combos)
TT (3 combos)
22 (1 combo)
66 (3 combos)
A2s (2 combos)
K2s (1 or 2 combos)
Total: 32 hands that beat you (excluding 1 combo of KK and 6 combos of AA)
I would add KK+ back and discount TT.
KK+ could be going after a L/RR and changed mind to trap when everyone else folded. TT is unlikely used to L/RR and majority of LLSNL players will open with PP that high.
Quote:
Originally Posted by paperboyNC
Hands that are somewhat logical that you beat
QJ (12 combos)
AQ (16 combos)
J9 (12 combos)
2x pot and $200/40bb bet is a huge bet, a such bet is rarely bluff. I would discount these combos heavily.
Quote:
Originally Posted by paperboyNC
K9 (8 combos)
K8s (2 combos)
K7s (2 combos)
AT (12 combos)
QT (12 combos)
JT (12 combos)
T9 (12 combos)
JJ (3 combos)
All of these are hands that have high SD value against a perceived "weak" range. Villain has no reason to merge against an unknown. I would discount all of these hands very very heavily.
Quote:
Originally Posted by paperboyNC
Let's say he bets with this two pair + value hands 100% of the time:
13 combos @ 100%
I would agree.
Quote:
Originally Posted by paperboyNC
He does this with just a King 50% of the time
16 combos that beat you @ 50%
12 combos you beat @ 50%
I would completely eliminate the 12 combos that you beat and heavily discount any single pair hand. Why would villain overplay AK when he limp-called pre? If he puts that much value in AK when hitting just one pair, he's likely going to be more aggressive pre.
Quote:
Originally Posted by paperboyNC
He does it with the semi-logical hands 30% of the time:
91 combos @ 30%
He does this with complete air a total of 10% of the time
Weighted averages:
21 combos that beat you
39 combos you beat
1 to 1.86 that you have the best hand
Call!! The main reason is that between your hand and the board and the fact that he likely does not have AA or KK based on the previous action, a lot of his value hands are blocked and just don't have a lot of combos (only 13 combos that are KT+!)
I disagree with your analysis of his range.
If villain perceives hero as weak because of hero's turn check, villain would not overbet river knowing that a weak range cannot possibly call.
So the river bet must be of a polarized range, and again, villains in LLSNL simply don't overbet bluff enough in these spots.
Quote:
Originally Posted by paperboyNC
Edit to Add: I've also found that players like to quickly establish an image that they bluff big (he'll probably show a bluff here after you fold) assuming that the table will remember it and call their huge value bets the rest of the session.
In my experience, most people that bluff will simply bluff at a higher than average rate.
It is also possible that they happen to run good and the percentage of bluff is lowered simply because they happen to hit the deck so hard.