Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 01-27-2019, 10:52 PM   #1
VForVon
stranger
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 13
2/5 River Decision

2/5 NL, 600$ Effective

Preflop
3 Limps
BTTN (Young weekend warrior, not great) makes it 35
Hero in the SB looks down at A K I make it 125
BB is an out of town loose player, 6 glasses of wine deep, he is not insane or reckless but he is by no means tight cold calls for 125
Everyone folds besides the BTTN who calls.

Flop Pot: 390$

96 2

SB (Hero): Check, (I'm not c-betting here)
BB and Bttn also check

Turn Pot: 390

9

I check and the two players behind also check back again

River Pot: 390
7

Board is 96 2 9 7

I check for the third time
BB: Bets 200
SB Folds
Back to me

Analysis: I simply can't come up with much value he has here
I find it very hard to believe that this out of towner who was loose would check a flush draw, QQ, JJ, 1010 TWICE and then bet the river

Bluffs: A QX, A JX

The AJ off is less likely but AQ certainly seems reasonable as a bluff candidate

There are not many SUPER likely bluffs quite honestly but atleast I have some that make reasonable sense compared to his value where I only have 99 for quads or a really weird hand.

Anyways, 200 to win 590, I make the call with AK

He shows 99 for quads gg
VForVon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-27-2019, 11:24 PM   #2
Pork Fri Rize
Pooh-Bah
 
Pork Fri Rize's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Balancing my limp-folding range
Posts: 5,099
Re: 2/5 River Decision

With SPR so shallow, we u fortunetly need to just c/f this down 3 ways, HU I might b/f like 1/3 pot because a lot of bad villains don't really react to sizing and will just give up to a $x bet because it's can represent real money to particular players who are just playing fit/fold
Pork Fri Rize is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-28-2019, 12:54 AM   #3
VForVon
stranger
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 13
Re: 2/5 River Decision

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pork Fri Rize View Post
With SPR so shallow, we u fortunetly need to just c/f this down 3 ways, HU I might b/f like 1/3 pot because a lot of bad villains don't really react to sizing and will just give up to a $x bet because it's can represent real money to particular players who are just playing fit/fold
Thank you for the reply,

my issue with c-bet in this 3way spot is that with no heart in my hand I think i'm getting called too often

The villan who Cold called a 3 bet has 88+ AJsuited+... I think that all those pockets are calling a 1/3 bet and a lot of his Ace x combos will have hearts since i don't have one

I see very few hands the villain in the BB is folding
VForVon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-28-2019, 10:55 AM   #4
mdelore
adept
 
mdelore's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 1,175
Re: 2/5 River Decision

Next time don't include results...

Pre should be more, at least 4x the raise so $150ish. Probably making it $160 with the 3 limps in there. This size charges him more with dominated hands and gives us a chance to get it in on two or three streets, depending on flop texture.

As played I am not calling the river but it is tempting. You said he's not reckless so I don't think he has many unsuited broadways in this spot. He can absolutely have an 88-JJ type hand here imo.
mdelore is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-28-2019, 12:04 PM   #5
VForVon
stranger
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 13
Re: 2/5 River Decision

Quote:
Originally Posted by mdelore View Post
Next time don't include results...

Pre should be more, at least 4x the raise so $150ish. Probably making it $160 with the 3 limps in there. This size charges him more with dominated hands and gives us a chance to get it in on two or three streets, depending on flop texture.

As played I am not calling the river but it is tempting. You said he's not reckless so I don't think he has many unsuited broadways in this spot. He can absolutely have an 88-JJ type hand here imo.
Yea totally agree about pre-flop sizing, butchered it.

My issue with 88-JJ is that I don't know if he's good enough to bet it for value (what is he getting called by that is worse)

88 makes more sense than JJ because i think he bets JJ on flop or worst case turn when checked to him twice
VForVon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-28-2019, 02:13 PM   #6
mdelore
adept
 
mdelore's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 1,175
Re: 2/5 River Decision

^ Yeah I would think so too but he is 6 wines deep and the random wtf factor. Who knows with these guys but IMO I don't think players bluff enough in general, probably less than normal in a 3b multiway pot. Like I said it is tempting because everyone looks so weak.
mdelore is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-28-2019, 05:01 PM   #7
Spanishmoon
grinder
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Northeast
Posts: 613
Re: 2/5 River Decision

[I thought you were in the SB. Or did you misstate river action and you meant to say that the BTN folded after your check and the V' river bet?]

Anyway, it's worth pondering the information content of his lead into the BTN otr after your check. I can find a fold here because he's leading into the BTN and H on the river. So he must know his FE is much less leading into two of you than if he were HU leading the river. I think this levels him to mid-pairs and makes it easier for H to find a fold than if H was HU..
Spanishmoon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-28-2019, 08:46 PM   #8
Ranma4703
veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: she / her
Posts: 2,692
Re: 2/5 River Decision

I would always make this call and have villain say he was bluffing and then show an underpair or something, so I really don't like this
Ranma4703 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-28-2019, 10:14 PM   #9
hyperknit
adept
 
hyperknit's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 1,095
Re: 2/5 River Decision

i like a fold on the riv. BB could show up with TT or 88 or some jazz and just be betting cause for whatever reason he came up with.
hyperknit is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-29-2019, 05:42 AM   #10
Minatorr
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 4,346
Re: 2/5 River Decision

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ranma4703 View Post
I would always make this call and have villain say he was bluffing and then show an underpair or something, so I really don't like this
yeah, gotta remember people can be bluffing with better and we don't beat all his "bluffs"/merges/spazzes

people can just be clicking buttons at times
Minatorr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-29-2019, 08:39 AM   #11
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,406
Re: 2/5 River Decision

When you see someone make some large hero call with AK and win, they look like a genius but you can bet for every time they've done it, theyve called incorrectly 5-10 times and mucked and you didnt know they only had A high. I seriously doubt anyone can hero call with A high profitably in the long run.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-29-2019, 10:30 AM   #12
mdelore
adept
 
mdelore's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 1,175
Re: 2/5 River Decision

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
When you see someone make some large hero call with AK and win, they look like a genius but you can bet for every time they've done it, theyve called incorrectly 5-10 times and mucked and you didnt know they only had A high. I seriously doubt anyone can hero call with A high profitably in the long run.
It isn't like we are always calling with A high, we do it when we are going to be good enough of the time to justify it. Sometimes A high rates to the best hand a big % of the time, it just depends on the situation. This spot vs a 3bet cold caller obviously wasn't one of those but lots of players will call a wide range pre and bet river 100% of the time when you check the turn for example. I can replay so many hands where I went bet flop check turn and got lead into on river.
mdelore is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-29-2019, 11:21 AM   #13
KT_Purple
banned
 
Join Date: Aug 2018
Posts: 553
Re: 2/5 River Decision

seems perfectly fine to me
KT_Purple is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-29-2019, 11:42 AM   #14
prairiebreeze
veteran
 
prairiebreeze's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Saskatchewan. Don't @ me.
Posts: 2,557
Re: 2/5 River Decision

You don't block anything and you don't beat anything. I can't find a reason to throw another $200 into the abyss other than morbid curiosity, which is an expensive way to get information at the table.
prairiebreeze is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-29-2019, 06:40 PM   #15
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,406
Re: 2/5 River Decision

Quote:
Originally Posted by mdelore View Post
It isn't like we are always calling with A high, we do it when we are going to be good enough of the time to justify it. Sometimes A high rates to the best hand a big % of the time, it just depends on the situation. This spot vs a 3bet cold caller obviously wasn't one of those but lots of players will call a wide range pre and bet river 100% of the time when you check the turn for example. I can replay so many hands where I went bet flop check turn and got lead into on river.
Keep track of every hero call you make with A high and get back to me after about 50 of them and let me know what your results were.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-30-2019, 10:58 AM   #16
mdelore
adept
 
mdelore's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 1,175
Re: 2/5 River Decision

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Keep track of every hero call you make with A high and get back to me after about 50 of them and let me know what your results were.
Absolutely useless without knowing pot odds for each call, reads, etc. If I am right 30% of the time it could still be +EV.
mdelore is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-31-2019, 08:25 AM   #17
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,406
Re: 2/5 River Decision

Quote:
Originally Posted by mdelore View Post
Absolutely useless without knowing pot odds for each call, reads, etc. If I am right 30% of the time it could still be +EV.
Not useless at all. Do it 50 times and let us know how much you won or lost with the hero call. The percentage of times you win doesnt matter, but the total amount won or lost matters.

If theres $200 and then the guy bets the river for $100 and you decide to hero call him with A high, you either won $300 or lost $100 with the hero call.

Keep track of results over 50 of these and let us know what happened. My guess is you will never make it even 10 before you stop doing it.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-08-2019, 08:38 AM   #18
TheSamasaurus
grinder
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 574
Re: 2/5 River Decision

I like a turn bet when it's checked around on the flop.

EDIT: I changed my mind I don't like a turn bet ignore this comment.
TheSamasaurus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-08-2019, 02:50 PM   #19
MarshMan114
grinder
 
MarshMan114's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Upstuck City
Posts: 405
Re: 2/5 River Decision

Quote:
Originally Posted by VForVon View Post
Yea totally agree about pre-flop sizing, butchered it.

My issue with 88-JJ is that I don't know if he's good enough to bet it for value (what is he getting called by that is worse)

88 makes more sense than JJ because i think he bets JJ on flop or worst case turn when checked to him twice
Apparently AK will call. But internet needling aside, I would approach this a different way. If you 3 bet from the blinds and fire on the flop, would Villian fold JJ or lower to you if they missed their set? If yes, I would bet the flop. Now you are spending the $200 to fold out all hands except KK or QQ or 99 instead of the inverse of hero calling on the river to beat a single possibility of AQhh.

If villains are Ďdumbí and donít understand value then just c,c,f and move on. You got to see all the cards for one price and thatís usually good enough for me in these spots.

And Mike is right on with the hero calls. My only comment is they should be so rare and so specific that your sample size is almost non-existent. Iím 1 for 1 in A high hero calls in 500 hours. Just for comparison Iíve had quads 4 times in that same span.
MarshMan114 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:08 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online