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2/5 river decision 2/5 river decision

12-14-2017 , 08:06 PM
Hero (1000)- mid 30s white guy reg (about half the players know im a reg, V in this hand I assume would be haven't played too much with him except from the night before where I played a short session and was on a heater, though with the goods in the big hands...1k to 4k in two hands...

V- MAWG (950) played with him back to back weeknights so I assume he is a reg, seemed to play a pretty snug style the one hand I was in with him before he called my UTG open (V was UTG+1) and BB called flop was in the neighborhood of 632r and it checked around, J turn checks around, river 2 BB bets 1/2 pot V calls and BB shows TT and V mucks

Hand Hero opens QT UTG+1 25, V calls UTG+2, everyone else folds

Flop(50 post-rake) 865

Hero checks, V bets 35, Hero raises 125, V calls,

Turn (300) K
Hero bets 125, V calls

River (550) T
Hero checks, V snap Jams 625

quick thoughts-I dont like my turn sizing as its a good card for my range and I can still get a 3/4 pot sized jam with the bigger sizing (175). The smaller sizing was because my range is pretty strong on a Kd turn, and I can get away from most Vs at LLSNL who jam monsters on the turn...

When V just calls and the flush and str8s miss the river, his range should be heavily bluff weighted, QT is pretty much the bottom of a river check/calling range (JT prob is the bottom but it doesn't block hearts so maybe a better call...) but if V bet his entire range that arrived at the river assuming my check range on the river is weak we should be able to profitably call our entire river c/c range... not exact but something like (AxKy,AA,88,JsTs,QhTh) for c/c assuming most of our bluffs and strong value hands jam the river... for live reads V was really nervous when he jammed, verbally declared all in then held the chips in his hand and didn't move them forwards at all, he also didn't let go of the chips until I got the dealer to count the all-in bet down.
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12-14-2017 , 08:13 PM
Snap fold river.

I don't really care for a big open UTG+1 with QTs. Rest of hand seems fine to me if you folded river.
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12-14-2017 , 09:56 PM
I hate the flop x/r.

I hate the turn bet (and sizing) even more given read that villain plays snug and just bet/called your flop x/r.
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12-15-2017 , 08:46 AM
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
I hate the flop x/r.

I hate the turn bet (and sizing) even more given read that villain plays snug and just bet/called your flop x/r.
Re: the flop don't really play much 2/5 or NLHE these days but experimenting with creating a c/r range as the PFR, don't have access to Pio so put QxTx with the heart draw in the raise portion as I would play most of my AhXh hands different so still not set on construction just mainly playing around with the idea. As to why on this flop, I feel that V prob bets most of his range when checked to (c/r as PFR is rare at LLSNL and most ppl will c/f or c/c then c/f on a non-improving turn) and then has to give up all of his air to the raise, since we will have AA,KK, some QQ in the c/r range along with AK and some bluffs (e.g. QhTh here) I think we're in decent shape against his calling range especially as we have the initiative. Maybe like (QQ-77,8x7x,7x6x,AhQh-AhTh,KhQh-KhTh,QhJh,QhTh,JhTh,Th9h) where we block the Qh and the Th.

on the turn I think the K is one of the best cards for our range (though I don't know what an average LLSNL V thinks a PFR c/r means so maybe this is were I have it wrong) so I think barreling is mandatory though not thrilled about the sizing either. I think most Vs would fold second pair to the third barrel but maybe not

for the river as played, what hands do most LLSNL V's get to the river and jam for value (sets, 2pr?) why wouldn't they have raised sooner in the hand?
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12-15-2017 , 10:14 AM
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for the river as played, what hands do most LLSNL V's get to the river and jam for value (sets, 2pr?) why wouldn't they have raised sooner in the hand?
Flopped straights afraid of losing their customer who is doing the betting for them anyway, a lot of hands that you block because they need the Th, KhXx doing this as a semi-bluff (except Kh6h, which is pure value).

I'd feel better about the fold if our turn bet hadn't been so small and "same bet" sized that could have induced, but I just don't see a snug MAWG overbet shoving this river after facing a flop c/r without being able to beat second pair very often at all.
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12-15-2017 , 11:32 AM
the flop XR is pretty bad.

The King on the turn is not "a good card for your range"... It is a good card for both ranges considering a UTG1 open and UTG2 flat

I do not feel that you have gained any equity by the turn, and what hands would you honestly play this way with the turn lead given your opening range? None unless you hit KK or AK. You are trying to represent a set of 88 at this point i suppose?

Still villain calls. Then rips the river when you make second pair. I just see this as way too weak in your calling range. Fold and lose 285

If you check call flop and fold turn on this runout when villain bets you save yourself about 200. You didn't properly gain enough equity in the pot with the Kd hitting the turn. Would you have even bet the 125 on the turn if you had KhTh on the turn? Nope you would check to realize your equity of top pair plus flush draw on the turn and try to get to showdown when the flush misses on the river (you would have made two pair on that river so that would have been a better hand to call down with although you prob still lose but then the pot would not be as big and villain would not over jam that much)
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12-15-2017 , 12:19 PM
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Originally Posted by V3ttz3ao
the flop XR is pretty bad.
Yah I just can't wrap my head around what hand I would ever take this line with. I'm either betting the flop or x/c, but never x/r.
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12-15-2017 , 03:26 PM
I mean I know the rule of "big bets in LSNLHE generally mean what they look like", but V's line looks FOS to me. IF he had a flopped str8, why would he not raise the turn (an incredible card to do so now he can include KK in our range that will snap call). I think his range is heavily weighted towards FD's that missed (as we gave him almost express odds to call on the turn).

His range is so polarized and not to value hands given how he played it. I tend to be too curious though so it wouldn't shock me if I called and he showed KJ, the only hand that beats us that sorta makes some sense (although maybe not since it has SDV on the turn which turns it into a bluff with the river shove).

I just cant ever see myself playing 2 pair, a set or a flopped str8 this way so that is why I am having trouble believing V.
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12-16-2017 , 03:51 PM
Line, sizing big problems.
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12-16-2017 , 06:41 PM
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
Yah I just can't wrap my head around what hand I would ever take this line with. I'm either betting the flop or x/c, but never x/r.
AA,KK,AK, random draws (front and backdoor), top set...I'm trying to attack the air / small pps in his range that will give throughout the hand to aggression. just balancing by check calling we give V a chance to realize his equity with all his hands...

V3ttz3ao- It would be interesting to see how you would react to a V c/r on the flop as PFR, what range would you put V on? If I had KhTh I'm def barreling that turn and if called jamming the T river, I mean I lose to slow played sets and a few 2 pr combos otherwise I'm ahead of Vs calling range after my turn bet...what K's does a snug V have after calling a raise UTG+2 (not 3-betting) then calling a flop c/r on 865? It's def better for my range...

Anyway I got a count and figured that I had better to call the river (AA,88,JT) ,and folded, but after thinking about it I don't think calling is that bad...I folded just because at 2/5 river jams for over pot are pretty nutted...
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12-16-2017 , 08:32 PM
Why would AA/KK or rather ANY overpair check/raise flop on such a connected board? That seems like a massive overplay with all the money behind and 2 streets more to go on that board. Makes no sense.

Also, why would a flopped set/straight/2p not lead out flop and give free cards OOP. Again, makes no sense.

Your hand looks like a FD or some weird 7x combo to me.

OTT, the "same bet" is a classic sign of weakness and I'm convinced you're on a draw now.

OTOH, V's range seems rather uncapped OTF, he can basically have anything from the NFD to 2p/sets/straights or even 77. But a lot of those hands except the FD should be raising to protect OTT.

So I'm skewed towards ranging him on the missed NFD or 77 turned into a bluff once you check. Problem is, you block so many heart combos. And there's a chance he slowplayed a monster despite the weird turn sizing.
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12-17-2017 , 06:54 AM
Assuming you're playing full ring qt from +1 is probably too loose
Don't mind the flop raise, and I think your reasoning for it is good, I often see people betting hands they shouldn't be in this spot. Am a little concerned though about his sizing. Check call also obviously very good.
Probably check turn, not sure if your sizing was intentional but it seems okay assuming he gets to the turn with enough one pair hands that don't want to continue.
It's probably not a bad river to bluff catch, call and get shown 67.
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12-17-2017 , 07:08 AM
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Originally Posted by shorn7
I mean I know the rule of "big bets in LSNLHE generally mean what they look like", but V's line looks FOS to me. IF he had a flopped str8, why would he not raise the turn (an incredible card to do so now he can include KK in our range that will snap call). I think his range is heavily weighted towards FD's that missed (as we gave him almost express odds to call on the turn).

His range is so polarized and not to value hands given how he played it. I tend to be too curious though so it wouldn't shock me if I called and he showed KJ, the only hand that beats us that sorta makes some sense (although maybe not since it has SDV on the turn which turns it into a bluff with the river shove).

I just cant ever see myself playing 2 pair, a set or a flopped str8 this way so that is why I am having trouble believing V.

I mean the only real obvious value hands here that make sense are TT and AK, less likely a weirdly played set or AA. Is he capable of turning 77 or AJ into a bluff? I think the snap jam means he is really strong and would expect villain to be at or near the top of his range here.
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12-17-2017 , 03:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Eholeing
not sure if your sizing was intentional but it seems okay assuming he gets to the turn with enough one pair hands that don't want to continue.
What one pair hands call flop but fold to a "same bet" OTT?
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12-17-2017 , 06:10 PM
Hands like a5ss, any 8x combo without additional equity e.g 8tdd
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12-17-2017 , 06:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Eholeing
Hands like a5ss, any 8x combo without additional equity e.g 8tdd
These are pretty terrible hands to be calling an UTG+1 open positioned UTG+2.
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12-17-2017 , 06:36 PM
I'm pretty sure having much of a cold calling range here is a mistake, but I've seen worse then a5 and 8t
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