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2/5 River bluff opportunity? 2/5 River bluff opportunity?

04-09-2019 , 12:14 PM
2/5 - 1k max buy about 1 hour into the session.

V1 - Older guy playing snug, nothing out of line.
V2 - Older guy playing on the looser side, aggressive, has bluffs.
Hero ($850 effective) - MAG nitty image. Has only shown down top pair and overpairs thus far.

OTTH: V2 had been the most active VPIP and PFR at the table but seemed to be able to sense strength and slow down when he's beat. Sitting on about 3k. V1 limps the CO, V2 opens for $20 from the BTN, folds to Hero in BB with AhJh. We call here due to V2s button raising range and frequencies. He had to be around 35/20. Folds around to V1 who calls.

Flop: ($60): Q J 4
Hero checks, V1 x, V2 $40, V1 folds, Hero calls. Being out of position here I was tempted to raise but I thought middle pair was ahead of much of his range and I didn't have any draws. Didn't want to bloat the pot OOP and if he calls I'm in a pretty bad spot with two streets left to play.

Turn: ($140): Q J 4 2
Hero checks, V2 bets $70. Somehow Hero isn't sold. He can certainly have Qx or better but I guess I'm deciding to call down light as I would vs a LAG since his numbers are LAGgy even though his barreling and bet sizing is not overly aggressive. Is this call spew vs this player type? Should I be raising or folding turn?

River: ($280): Q J 4 2 9
Both draws come in and I suddenly get a gut feeling like I need to turn my J into a bluff. Which is weird because if I had felt this far behind OTT I would have folded. But now I feel like my J is no good and both draws just came in. My x/c, x/c line looks like a flush. We expect V2 to check his value behind so Hero leads for $150.

I wish I had planned to bluff river on A, 9, or spades when calling turn but I'll admit I wasn't that savvy. I just didn't want to believe that this guy could open twice per orbit and have top pair+ all the time. When your reads are all over the place it seems better to bet than x/c. Seems really bad to x/f here unless he goes north of 2/3. Thoughts?
2/5 River bluff opportunity? Quote
04-09-2019 , 12:27 PM
3bet pre. Cold calling here is a big leak.
2/5 River bluff opportunity? Quote
04-09-2019 , 12:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia
3bet pre. Cold calling here is a big leak.
You're right, against his range AJs should be 3! pre. I normally don't 3! that light at 2/5, especially OOP. What if he was TAG? Just fold?
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04-09-2019 , 12:42 PM
Still 3bet a tag. The main reason to 3bet in this particular hand is bc the limper in between is going to bring a ton of limitations to our options postflop.

If it were folded to the button and he opened flatting is fine. I would still 3bet but it’s not as important as it is in your situation.
2/5 River bluff opportunity? Quote
04-09-2019 , 12:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia
Still 3bet a tag. The main reason to 3bet in this particular hand is bc the limper in between is going to bring a ton of limitations to our options postflop.

If it were folded to the button and he opened flatting is fine. I would still 3bet but it’s not as important as it is in your situation.
Ok, makes more sense now with the limper. How far down before we fold? What are we doing with AJo or ATs? This is a major adjustment for me. Will definitely give it a try.
2/5 River bluff opportunity? Quote
04-09-2019 , 01:10 PM
+1 to 3b pre

Flop is fine, raise is spewy.

Turn also seems fine, you're ahead of enough range.

River just give it up, check and hope he checks back. Don't change midstream thinking he has some semi bluffs on the turn. When the draw comes in you want to rep the hands you wanted him to have in the first place? He's got a lot of flushes himself, you block none of them, and another thing if you're going to bluff at it make it big so he folds. I also disagree your x/c x/c line looks like a flush, many of your flushes were combo draws on the flop that would be inclined to x/r the flop. To me x/c x/c looks a lot like a hand you have, calling because it isn't strong enough to raise and getting a good price because BTN has a bluff often enough.
2/5 River bluff opportunity? Quote
04-09-2019 , 01:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia
3bet pre. Cold calling here is a big leak.
+1.
This was the first thing I was going to write, but Ava beat me to it.
I have had to work on this part of my game too, and it’s showing positive results.
2/5 River bluff opportunity? Quote
04-09-2019 , 01:32 PM
I also agree with mdelore that I don’t really love this river bluff AP.
V can easily have the draws you are representing here and you don’t block anything significant. Personally, I’d just give up on this river, but I would have called flop and turn in your spot as well.
Work on 3!ing from the blinds more when you decide your hand is good enough (like this one). If you have a nitty image and hand read fine (I get the impression that you do) it will improve your game for sure.
2/5 River bluff opportunity? Quote
04-09-2019 , 01:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdelore
+1 to 3b pre

Flop is fine, raise is spewy.

Turn also seems fine, you're ahead of enough range.

River just give it up, check and hope he checks back. Don't change midstream thinking he has some semi bluffs on the turn. When the draw comes in you want to rep the hands you wanted him to have in the first place? He's got a lot of flushes himself, you block none of them, and another thing if you're going to bluff at it make it big so he folds. I also disagree your x/c x/c line looks like a flush, many of your flushes were combo draws on the flop that would be inclined to x/r the flop. To me x/c x/c looks a lot like a hand you have, calling because it isn't strong enough to raise and getting a good price because BTN has a bluff often enough.
I'm on board with all of this.
2/5 River bluff opportunity? Quote
04-09-2019 , 02:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdelore
+1 to 3b pre

Flop is fine, raise is spewy.

Turn also seems fine, you're ahead of enough range.

River just give it up, check and hope he checks back. Don't change midstream thinking he has some semi bluffs on the turn. When the draw comes in you want to rep the hands you wanted him to have in the first place? He's got a lot of flushes himself, you block none of them, and another thing if you're going to bluff at it make it big so he folds. I also disagree your x/c x/c line looks like a flush, many of your flushes were combo draws on the flop that would be inclined to x/r the flop. To me x/c x/c looks a lot like a hand you have, calling because it isn't strong enough to raise and getting a good price because BTN has a bluff often enough.
Hadn't thought about how many of our flush draw should be combo draws that are playing more aggressive. Probably all of them that call a raise OOP, good point. We may have been repping thinner than I thought but V doesn't have much history with us and I like to use our low VPIP image to steal when I can.

Good points, I was thinking the turn was the more likely leaky decision point in this hand but clearly it was pre, followed next by river with flop and turn more standard. Still don't hate the river value bet. What's your sizing if you fire? 2/3? I thought anything over 1/2 would be enough.
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04-09-2019 , 02:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by XtraScratch8
+1.
This was the first thing I was going to write, but Ava beat me to it.
I have had to work on this part of my game too, and it’s showing positive results.
Yea this wasn't part of my game against more solid LAGish regs OOP. Will be interesting to get out of my comfort zone and add AJs to the 3! range from the blinds. I hate AJ.
2/5 River bluff opportunity? Quote
04-09-2019 , 02:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by XtraScratch8
I also agree with mdelore that I don’t really love this river bluff AP.
V can easily have the draws you are representing here and you don’t block anything significant. Personally, I’d just give up on this river, but I would have called flop and turn in your spot as well.
Work on 3!ing from the blinds more when you decide your hand is good enough (like this one). If you have a nitty image and hand read fine (I get the impression that you do) it will improve your game for sure.
Yea, I was definitely not calling a third barrel and the spot just felt really weird. I can't remember the last time I've turned a hand with SD value into a bluff OTR. Seemed like a perfect scare card to prevent me from making a tough river decision. At the time I thought it looked more like a flush but concede they should mostly be combos that weren't waiting to lead river.

I've been doing a decent job at hand reading IMO and definitely have a nitty image at 2/5. Will be interesting to see how this adjustment plays out.
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04-09-2019 , 02:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d
What's your sizing if you fire? 2/3? I thought anything over 1/2 would be enough.
I don't fire after the action goes like this, would consider it more with the naked As or Ks though. If I want to bluff I guess like $225 or something super valuey.
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04-09-2019 , 03:19 PM
As others have said, pre is almost always a 3b vs. V2 BTN raising range.

As played, flop is fine.

Turn action depends on a range that raises pre, cbets flop, and doubles on turn vs. a nitty opponent. I guess if you think KT/FD/TT make-up a large portion of that range, call. I’d fold. Only 1 hour in, 35/20 is over a very small sample to begin calling down with middle pair.

River is check/fold. SD/FD arrive and Hero blocks none of those hands, meaning a bluff is less likely to succeed.
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04-09-2019 , 03:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by samo
As others have said, pre is almost always a 3b vs. V2 BTN raising range.

As played, flop is fine.

Turn action depends on a range that raises pre, cbets flop, and doubles on turn vs. a nitty opponent. I guess if you think KT/FD/TT make-up a large portion of that range, call. I’d fold. Only 1 hour in, 35/20 is over a very small sample to begin calling down with middle pair.

River is check/fold. SD/FD arrive and Hero blocks none of those hands, meaning a bluff is less likely to succeed.
Sounds similar. This is more what I expected in terms of turn opinion. I fold here a lot too, was on the fence with the read which is an even better time to fold. Always better to have blockers to bluff.
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04-09-2019 , 04:01 PM
Agree w/ the 3! pre.

I'd fold turn. Maybe at higher stakes against better players its a call though.
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04-09-2019 , 04:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnjscott1296
Agree w/ the 3! pre.

I'd fold turn. Maybe at higher stakes against better players its a call though.
This feels very subjective. How do we know how good he is from this description? He has 3 buy ins in front and I assume he does play the larger games as well. On this particular day there was only one such larger game running which was full for most of the night. Since we haven't played the larger games yet we can only decide based on what we see here. There is no evidence that this V is not good or does not play higher stakes however. Also, somewhat counter to that thought, I often am more aggressive / wide when I play lower than 2/5.
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04-10-2019 , 12:01 AM
preflop: u have equity advantage against there ranges + blockers so 3bet is good with AJss is for sure and reasonable with any Axs.

Flop: easy checkcall. Terrible idea to raise, too many flushdraws and straightdraws to consider raising with AJ no spade. He will call too often + you cant barrel on many runouts and might get bluffed off the best hand. You can blufraise with some draws or gutshots instead. If the the flop is like Q82r and u are deep and have A8s checkraising and barreling is very good against a lot of players. On those dryer boards the blocker for 2p sets becomes very effective

Turn: Only important thing is realiizing its close. Close decisions dont really matter too much so just call or fold depending on what feels best in the moment and dont waste any more time thinking about it. Just make sure to call with KQ and fold JT and then do whatever with AJ. The value in poker comes from playing all the hands that are clear decisions correctly, like preflop and river in this hand history. If you checkcall turn here and board bricks, its std to checkcall it off tho on the river tho since u can have a bunch of draws that will fold so the made hands should usually call the shove otherwise he can jam any bluf for a profit.

river: spades and KT complete, u block neither so this is one of the last hands you would want to consider turning into a bluf. It could still be +ev tho if he is a nit and doesnt view you as someone capable of bluffing here. But checkfolding is the normal play. If you have Aj with the As, or JT with a spade, turning it into a bluf is totally fine. Sizing should usually be bigger. (Allin would be std sizing with As blocker).
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04-11-2019 , 04:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d
This feels very subjective.
Yeah, it is subjective (most reads are). I think people playing at 2/5 take certain lines more often than not, same w/ 1/3 & 1/2 players. I can't speak to common lines of 10/10 players & up as I haven't sat at that game in my casino yet.

I'm not saying it's always a fold on the turn, however you should have a plan for the river(which you said you didn't). V can have many strong hands in addition to draws semi bluffing that got there. I don't like donk leading nor check calling that river; fold or x/r if he makes a weak bet.
2/5 River bluff opportunity? Quote
04-11-2019 , 06:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnjscott1296
Yeah, it is subjective (most reads are). I think people playing at 2/5 take certain lines more often than not, same w/ 1/3 & 1/2 players. I can't speak to common lines of 10/10 players & up as I haven't sat at that game in my casino yet.

I'm not saying it's always a fold on the turn, however you should have a plan for the river(which you said you didn't). V can have many strong hands in addition to draws semi bluffing that got there. I don't like donk leading nor check calling that river; fold or x/r if he makes a weak bet.
Making a read based on the stake seems bad to me. I still play 1/2 and 1/3 on occasion. I saw a 10/10 player I consider strong at a 1/2 table last week as well. Sometimes the 2/5 list is long or the games are not great. I also see many of the 5/10 and 10/10 players playing 2/5. I say all that to say player pools are dynamic and many if not most players play at more than one level so giving too much credit in either direction based on what table you're currently at seems silly.

I wouldn't go so far as to say I had NO plan for the river. My plan didn't include donk bluffing on certain runouts is what I meant. I was mostly x/f river as I expect most of his value to only go for 2 streets and check back and his stronger value and some missed bluffs to go for 3 streets. I was less sure my Jx was good though and if he checks back Qx or some silly 2 pair I lose. I thought I could rep more straights and flushes but as it was a spur of the moment decision I hadn't realized how my line didn't really look like a flush.
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04-11-2019 , 06:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by icoon
preflop: u have equity advantage against there ranges + blockers so 3bet is good with AJss is for sure and reasonable with any Axs.

Flop: easy checkcall. Terrible idea to raise, too many flushdraws and straightdraws to consider raising with AJ no spade. He will call too often + you cant barrel on many runouts and might get bluffed off the best hand. You can blufraise with some draws or gutshots instead. If the the flop is like Q82r and u are deep and have A8s checkraising and barreling is very good against a lot of players. On those dryer boards the blocker for 2p sets becomes very effective

Turn: Only important thing is realiizing its close. Close decisions dont really matter too much so just call or fold depending on what feels best in the moment and dont waste any more time thinking about it. Just make sure to call with KQ and fold JT and then do whatever with AJ. The value in poker comes from playing all the hands that are clear decisions correctly, like preflop and river in this hand history. If you checkcall turn here and board bricks, its std to checkcall it off tho on the river tho since u can have a bunch of draws that will fold so the made hands should usually call the shove otherwise he can jam any bluf for a profit.

river: spades and KT complete, u block neither so this is one of the last hands you would want to consider turning into a bluf. It could still be +ev tho if he is a nit and doesnt view you as someone capable of bluffing here. But checkfolding is the normal play. If you have Aj with the As, or JT with a spade, turning it into a bluf is totally fine. Sizing should usually be bigger. (Allin would be std sizing with As blocker).
Thanks. He wasn't a nit, I had the nit image. I'll give more thought to sizing as many thing larger is better here. Probably size up a bit next attempt and have at least a little in the way of blockers. Just seemed really hard for V to call there without 2 pair+ and I didn't think he was that strong.
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